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AVAVAV

AeroVironment, Inc.

$AVAV·$7.2B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$142.20-4.7%YTD-42.8%1Y-49.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 40 posts2026-07-12: 146 posts2026-07-13: 201 posts2026-07-14: 84 posts2026-07-15: 209 posts2026-07-16: 248 posts2026-07-17: 106 posts1,054+26%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 6h ago
AVAVAV
$AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.
$142.20-4.75%1.1k posts+26%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AVAV, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Down 43% YTD despite $500M in fresh counter-drone bookings — the LOCUST demo is what bulls anchor on.

AeroVironment is the defense-drone + counter-drone + directed-energy specialist whose 2026 tape has been -43% YTD despite genuinely strong business bookings. The stock is coiled at 2% of the 52-week range with $500M+ in fresh counter-drone bookings.

  • The core business is accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue grew 143% YoY to $408M (real acceleration off a small base), gross margin held at 17%, but operating margin was -5.1% as the R&D + integration ramp is still ahead of revenue — the business is scaling, but not yet cash-generating.
  • The catalyst pipeline is genuinely dense: $500M+ in newly booked counter-drone bookings, LOCUST directed-energy demos (Secretary Hegseth shot down a drone with under 5 minutes of training at White Sands), pending E-HEL award decisions in 30-90 days, and a strong media tour on CNBC/Fox/60 Minutes — real defense catalyst pipeline.
  • Insider action is heavy: 15 insider events in the quarter, and the tape has been split between long-term structural bulls (5-year AVAV +77% vs Russell 2000 +24% vs SPADE Defense +124%) and short-term technical bears — the setup is a turnaround coil into the September 8 print.

The September 8 Q1 FY27 earnings are the near-term arbiter — Q1 revenue trajectory, gross margin recovery back toward 22%, and any specific E-HEL award commentary extend the coiling setup. A revenue miss or missed E-HEL award confirms the technical-bear framing and drops the tape below $130.

What to watch: The September 8 Q1 FY27 earnings and any pre-print E-HEL award decision. Watch Q1 revenue trajectory, gross margin recovery toward 22%, and E-HEL commentary. Revenue miss or missed E-HEL confirms technical-bear framing sub-$130; specific award + margin trajectory extends the coil.

On the calendar: 2026-09-08 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment36 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

AeroVironment is one of the more painful drone-defense drawdowns, off roughly 64% from its year-to-date high and trading below the 200-week SMA for only the second time in four years. Bulls emphasize a fresh Raymond James upgrade to Outperform with a $210 target, a Canaccord Buy at $240, a $500M-plus counter-drone booking, Piper Sandler pointing to final E-HEL negotiations, a Greece Switchblade 300 order, and heavy CNBC/Fox Business/60 Minutes coverage. Even BofA cut the price target to $225 (from $450) while maintaining Buy, framing the print as reinforcing conviction. Bears counter that bookings have not translated to a price recovery and that defense has been out of favor almost all of 2026.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AVAV

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes small tactical drones (Raven, Puma) and Switchblade loitering munitions for US and allied military forces.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AVAV.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $AVAV

Direct beneficiary — Makes small tactical drones (Raven, Puma) and Switchblade loitering munitions for US and allied military forces; primary revenue lines track directly to the defense budget expansion and space commercialization.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+7.1%YTD
+17.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-40.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-1.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-6.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
21.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 29, 2026$1.84$1.46+26.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.64$0.68-5.6%
Q3 2025Dec 9, 2025$0.44$0.78-43.3%
Q2 2025Sep 9, 2025$0.32$0.37-12.4%
Next earningsTue, Sep 8·consensus EPS $0.28

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$408.0M+143.4%17.1%-5.1%$-3.15$-17.7M
Q2 FY26$472.5M+150.7%17.4%-4.6%$-0.34$-22.4M
Q1 FY26$454.7M+140.0%20.9%-15.2%$-2.40$-146.5M
Q4 FY25$275.1M+39.6%38.0%5.0%$0.59$-8.8M

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 13 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.9B$1.9B – $1.9B$2.87$2.78 – $3.0013
FY27$2.2B$2.2B – $2.3B$3.25$3.05 – $3.8412
FY28$2.5B$2.3B – $2.7B$4.50$3.70 – $5.3911
FY29$2.9B$2.9B – $3.0B$5.79$5.35 – $6.171
FY30$3.7B$3.4B – $3.8B$8.28$7.66 – $8.841
FY31$4.4B$4.2B – $4.7B$7.40$6.85 – $7.901

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.2%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-15.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-42.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 37.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.405-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 15Shackley Brian CharlesSVP, Chief Accounting Officer300 sh$43KSellJul 15Stephen F PageDirector248 sh$35KSellJun 15Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$44KSellMay 15Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$41KSellApr 15Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$49KSellMar 16Shackley Brian CharlesChief Accounting Officer200 sh$43KSellMar 16Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$53KSellMar 10Mcdonnell Kevin PatrickCFO396 sh$89KSellMar 2Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$75KSellFeb 19Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$69K
1–10 of 12
+ 36 other (19 awards · 11 inkinds · 5 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $AVAV insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 298-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AeroVironment released financial results for its fiscal year ended approximately April 30, 2026, on June 29, 2026. The available excerpt consists primarily of boilerplate 8-K cover page with no financial figures visible in the text portion. Body unavailable — financial results are contained in the attached Exhibit 99.1 press release, not in the excerpt.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 293
AI summary

William J. Lynn III joined AeroVironment's board of directors effective June 24, 2026, and reports no securities beneficially owned. Routine initial Section 16 director disclosure for this defense-sector drone and unmanned systems manufacturer.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 258-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AeroVironment appointed William J. Lynn III to its Board of Directors as a Class I director, effective June 24, 2026, while simultaneously reducing Board size from 10 to 9 members. Lynn's term expires at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No compensation arrangements or committee assignments were disclosed beyond standard director pay. AeroVironment is a defense drone maker; Lynn is a former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, adding significant defense policy expertise to the board. Administrative governance change.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 24SC 13D/A
AI summary

Arlington Capital Partners (through Altitude V Holdings and Altitude VI Holdings) filed an amended Schedule 13D on AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV), reporting beneficial ownership of 6,728,262 shares (13.5% of class) and 5,307,628 shares (10.6% of class) respectively, as of June 17, 2026. Funds are classified as working capital / affiliated funds. As a Schedule 13D rather than 13G, Arlington Capital reserves the right to seek influence over AVAV, making this an active rather than passive institutional stake in the drone-maker.

8-KEarnings restatementJun 228-K — Item 4.02: Earnings restatement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

AeroVironment's Audit Committee determined on June 17, 2026 that its Q3 FY2026 financial statements (10-Q for the three and nine months ended January 31, 2026, originally filed March 11, 2026) require restatement and should no longer be relied upon. The error: the goodwill impairment analysis for the Space reporting unit used a carrying value that failed to include goodwill allocated from acquired deferred tax assets and liabilities. The triggering event was the previously-disclosed stop-work order and termination-for-convenience of the BADGER phased array antenna/SCAR program. A corrected Form 10-Q/A was filed concurrently — an incremental impairment charge is materially significant.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 13
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for AVAV on 2026-05-01, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 213
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for AVAV on 2026-04-21, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 138-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AVAV disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-13). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Sean Woodward as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 14 other (6 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 1 S-8 · 1 10-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

AVAV DEADLINE: ROSEN, TRUSTED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages AeroVironment, Inc. Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Securities Class Action - AVAVnewsfilecorp.com·10h agoBragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. Reminds Aerovironment, Inc. Investors They Have Until July 27th to Contact the Firm Seeking Lead Plaintiff Roleglobenewswire.com·12h agoAeroVironment, Inc. Notice of July 27, 2026 Application Deadline for Class Action Lawsuit - Contact Lewis Kahn, Esq. at Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC, Before Application Deadlinenewsfilecorp.com·12h agoShareholder Alert: Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann LLP Announces the Filing of Securities Class Action Lawsuit Against AeroVironment, Inc.businesswire.com·12h agoKaplan Fox Encourages Investors of AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Who Suffered Losses to Contact the Firm Before July 27, 2026newsfilecorp.com·14h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & DronesRobotics & Humanoids

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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