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SPSPCX

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

$SPCX·$1.5T·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$115.07-2.7%1Y-26.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-19: 1,095 posts2026-07-20: 2,554 posts2026-07-21: 3,069 posts2026-07-22: 4,219 posts2026-07-23: 4,403 posts2026-07-24: 2,556 posts2026-07-25: 1,871 posts19,814-20%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
SPSPCX
$SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.
$115.07-2.68%20k posts-20%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SPCX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-26

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The largest IPO in US history is trading like a lockup-and-short-squeeze game, not a fundamentals story.

SpaceX went public in June as the largest US IPO on record, and the stock is now working out what a public SpaceX is actually worth. The tape right now is dominated by lockup mechanics and short positioning, not the underlying business.

Where it stands:

  • Voting control is locked up before the market ever gets a say: Musk holds ~82% of votes through 10-for-1 Class B stock, so any strategic decision is management's to make — public shareholders are along for the ride, not driving it.
  • The capital plan is enormous and it's being funded by the market, not the business: on top of ~$75B raised at IPO the company just closed a $25B multi-tranche bond deal to fund Starship + Starlink buildout, while op margin runs -22% and free cash flow stays deeply negative — analysts model ~$39B of 2026 revenue rising to ~$74B by 2027, but that path needs continuous access to capital markets.
  • The float is smaller than the crowd assumes and the shorts have piled in: ~$25B of short interest is roughly a third of the true public float, ten of the last eleven sessions closed red, and further insider lockup tranches are still ahead — a fragile setup either way.

The long-run bet is Starlink cash flow scaling into Starship-enabled launch cadence, exactly the 2027-28 inflection the analyst curve implies. Between here and there, the stock is a lockup-and-liquidity trade: it stops going down when shorts find a real catalyst to cover into, and it accelerates lower if the next lockup wave hits an empty bid.

What to watch: The Q2 earnings print on 2026-08-04, the next scheduled lockup expiry, and whether short interest of ~$25B begins to unwind — a covering wave is the most likely upside trigger this quarter.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 earnings

insufficient price historypost ipo lockup regime

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠199 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-25 · top-engagement diverged

Two threads dominate: Google disclosing a $98B unrealized gain on its SpaceX stake and Cathie Wood arguing SpaceX could become the most important company in global history via launch, Starlink and AI infrastructure. Cutting against that, posts note SpaceX has been red in ten of the last eleven days, short interest is roughly a third of the public float (~$25B), and insiders are front-running lockups. The camp split is durable — long-term believers versus near-term technical weakness and lockup overhang — which is why the tape action feels heavy despite blockbuster mark-to-market news.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SPCX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and launches reusable rockets and spacecraft for payload delivery; operates the Starlink global satellite internet constellation.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SPCX.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $SPCX

Neutral — Designs and launches reusable rockets and spacecraft for payload delivery; operates the Starlink global satellite internet constellation; limited read-through from aerospace & defense macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+11.4%YTD
+22.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-130.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-2.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-21.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-0.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
240.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-11.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
50.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $-0.22

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$4.7B—49.1%-41.4%$-1.27$-9.1B
Q1 FY25$4.1B—51.8%0.7%$-0.18$-3.4B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 20 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$38.9B$33.3B – $44.9B-$0.66-$1.48 – $0.2817
FY27$74.2B$54.8B – $90.9B$0.54-$0.27 – $2.1817
FY28$141.6B$60.3B – $189.9B$3.77-$0.45 – $6.4820

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.—Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.—Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 365.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today14.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.005-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellApr 2Elon MuskCEO11.4K sh$1.2M
+ 5 other (1 conversion · 1 other · 1 gift · 1 return · 1 award) in window

See when $SPCX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 228-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Texas 001-43344 01-0627671 disclosed: being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing by Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (the “Company”) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language contained in such filing..

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 183
AI summary

Form 3 filed by BOTHA ROELOF (Other (specify below) 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: Remarks: Exhibit 24 - Power of Attorney No securities are beneficially owned. /s/ Sheldon Nagesh, as attorney-in-fact 06/18/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at SPCX on 2026-06-18. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX, ticker SPCX) filed an 8-K (Item 5.02) dated June 16, 2026, reporting a director or officer change. The excerpt provides cover-page only with no names or roles specified. Given SpaceX's profile, any C-suite change would be significant, but the filing is routine in form; no further details are available from the excerpt.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale
AI summary

SPCX filed an 8-K on June 16, 2026 covering a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and unregistered sales of equity securities (Item 3.02). Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the substantive agreement terms or equity sale details are disclosed.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 158-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 3.03 · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

SPCX filed a comprehensive 8-K on June 15, 2026 covering unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), material modification of security holder rights (Item 3.03), officer/director changes (Item 5.02), charter/bylaw amendments (Item 5.03), Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01), and other events (Item 8.01). Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before specific equity sale terms, personnel changes, and charter amendment details are disclosed.

424B4Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B4
AI summary

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) priced its initial public offering at $135.00 per share for 555,555,555 Class A common shares, for gross proceeds of approximately $75 billion — the largest U.S. IPO on record by gross proceeds — with listing on Nasdaq under the symbol 'SPCX.' Elon Musk (CEO/CTO/Chairman) holds approximately 82.4% of combined voting power through Class A and Class B shares (10 votes each) immediately post-IPO; underwriters may purchase an additional 83.3 million shares. The dual-class structure ensures public shareholders hold minimal voting control despite the record-setting fundraise.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 113
AI summary

SpaceX director Luke Nosek filed a Form 3 upon the IPO disclosing direct ownership of 24,987,340 Class A shares plus indirect ownership of 8,000,020 Class A shares through Nosek Capital LLC (of which he is the managing member), for a combined disclosed position of approximately 33 million Class A shares. Routine initial Section 16 filing upon the company's IPO making Nosek a reporting person.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 113
AI summary

SpaceX director Steve Jurvetson filed a Form 3 as a newly reporting person upon SpaceX's IPO, disclosing no securities of any class beneficially owned as of the event date. Routine initial Section 16 beneficial ownership filing for a newly reporting director.

+ 30 other (7 3s · 5 CORRESPs · 4 UPLOADs · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

HSBC Just Started Covering SpaceX With a $115 Price Target. The Stock Closed Friday at $115.07.fool.com·15h agoThe Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) Now Holds 18,738,438 Shares of SpaceX Stock. Here's What That Means for Investors.fool.com·1d agoHere's the best time to buy SpaceX stock, according to ChatGPTfinbold.com·1d agoSpaceX vs. Nvidia: Which Trillion-Dollar Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Is the Better Buy After the Recent Pullback?fool.com·1d agoShould You Buy SpaceX Stock Before Aug. 4?fool.com·1d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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