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TickerTalks›$RDW
RDRDW

Redwire Corp

Trending onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$RDW·$2.4B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$8.45-9.7%YTD+6.7%1Y-51.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 277 posts2026-07-11: 112 posts2026-07-12: 194 posts2026-07-13: 346 posts2026-07-14: 280 posts2026-07-15: 539 posts2026-07-16: 406 posts2,182+19%
Price updated 12h ago·X counts updated 12h ago
RDRDW
$RDWRedwire Corp
$8.45-9.72%2.2k posts+19%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $RDW, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Small-cap space play just restructured its debt with a growing backlog — a real fundamentals-catch-up story.

Redwire is a small-cap space-infrastructure company — solar arrays, spacecraft components, and increasingly VLEO (very-low-earth-orbit) satellites for defense customers. After a 45% decline over the last year, the fundamental picture is quietly improving faster than the tape reflects.

  • Revenue grew 58% YoY last quarter — the top line is accelerating hard as defense-space contracts and the Otter SabreSat VLEO platform ramp up, which is the operational story the market hasn't priced yet.
  • The June 30 debt restructuring upsized the revolver from $30M to $50M while prepaying $40M of term loans — real balance-sheet improvement in a high-rate environment, and exactly what a small-cap turnaround needs before it can afford growth investment.
  • A fresh $21.5M follow-on order from the Portfolio Acquisition Executive Robotic Autonomous Systems (PAE RAS) landed today, and the total backlog is now approaching $500M — visible revenue coverage for the next several quarters.
  • The strategic advisor appointments (Paul Reichert ex-Merck, Niki Werkheiser ex-NASA) hint at the in-space pharma/manufacturing narrative getting real board-level attention — potentially the highest-value adjacency.
  • The $500M ATM facility filed June 9 is a real overhang — ~20% of the market cap in potential dilution supply — that will cap upside until management shows they can grow without leaning on it.

August 5 Q2 earnings is the crucial print — need continued 40%+ revenue growth plus operating loss narrowing to validate the turnaround. A revenue miss or fresh ATM issuance is where the 52-week 21st percentile position turns into new lows. Real backlog, real balance-sheet work, and a dilution overhang that has to stay unused for the tape to reward the improvement.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the debt restructuring, the Taiwan Coast Guard drone contract, and CEO Paul Cannito's 20K share purchase is analytically fair. Where the crowd's $30 chart target is generous: the $500M ATM overhang is real, and every quarter of growth investment funded by dilution instead of operating cash pushes the multiple lower even if the story stays intact.

What to watch: Aug 5 Q2 earnings — need 40%+ revenue growth held and narrower operating losses. A miss or a fresh ATM issuance is where the 52-week 21st percentile position turns into fresh lows.

On the calendar: 2026-08-05 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment29 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Redwire chatter is bullish with fundamentals catching up. RDW restructured its debt in late June/July, upsizing the revolving credit facility from $30M to $50M and prepaying $40M of its term loan - meaningfully lowering interest expense in a high-rate environment. Backlog nears $500M, new Taiwan Coast Guard drone contract booked, CEO Paul Cannito bought 20,000 shares as insider signal, and RDW just appointed Paul Reichert (ex-Merck Research Labs Principal Investigator) and Niki Werkheiser (ex-NASA Director of Technology Maturation) as strategic advisors. VLEO tech is now operational (Otter SabreSat, ESA-adjacent programs). RDW is leading space/defense premarket at +2.5%. Chart bulls target $30. No meaningful bear thread.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $RDW

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes mission-critical space hardware (solar arrays, antennas, sensors) and digital engineering software for defense and civil space programs.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RDW.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $RDW

Neutral — Makes mission-critical space hardware (solar arrays, antennas, sensors) and digital engineering software for defense and civil space programs; the defense budget expansion and space commercialization does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+7.1%YTD
+18.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-15.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-19.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-76.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-29.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
9.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.40$-0.16-150.0%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$-0.35$-0.16-118.7%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$-0.21$-0.12-75.0%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$-0.39$-0.11-254.5%
Next earningsWed, Aug 5·consensus EPS $-0.20

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$97.0M+57.9%26.6%-70.9%$-0.40$-12.4M
Q4 FY25$108.8M+56.4%9.6%-75.0%$-0.58$-26.5M
Q3 FY25$103.4M+50.7%16.3%-40.5%$-0.29$-27.8M
Q2 FY25$61.8M-20.9%-30.9%-149%$-1.41$-90.6M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$471.1M$467.8M – $474.5M-$0.82-$1.10 – -$0.477
FY27$568.1M$558.6M – $577.5M-$0.50-$0.90 – -$0.326
FY28$664.4M$648.6M – $683.3M-$0.24-$0.25 – -$0.231

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.16%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-40.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-16.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 123.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today14.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.025-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 11Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.1M sh$23.0MSellMay 18Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector15.2M sh$209.6MSellApr 22Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector21.4M sh$231.8MSellApr 21Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector977.9K sh$10.3MSellApr 20Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.8M sh$18.1MSellApr 17Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector2.0M sh$21.9MSellApr 16Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector3.1M sh$33.2MSellApr 15Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector692.9K sh$6.7MSellApr 14Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.2M sh$11.9MSellApr 13Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector790.4K sh$7.7M
1–10 of 29
+ 25 other (12 awards · 11 inkinds · 1 inthemoney · 1 conversion) in window

See when $RDW insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 143
AI summary

James H. Romaker filed an initial Form 3 on July 14, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership of Redwire Corporation (RDW) securities. This filing establishes Romaker's Section 16(a) reporting position as a newly appointed officer or director. Specific securities held were not detailed in the excerpt.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) announced on July 14, 2026, the appointment of John Heston as an independent director to its board of directors and as a member of the Audit Committee. Heston is a retired Ernst & Young partner with 38 years of public accounting experience, including 24 years as a partner. His appointment adds significant financial oversight expertise to Redwire's board as the company continues its growth in the space infrastructure sector.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) amended its credit agreement on June 30, 2026, increasing the revolving credit facility from $30 million to $50 million and simultaneously prepaying $40 million of term loans, reducing the outstanding term loan balance to $50 million. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. acts as administrative and collateral agent. The combined effect is a larger, more flexible revolver paired with reduced fixed debt obligations. This is a positive balance sheet action — improved liquidity headroom and lower term debt, consistent with Redwire's positioning as a growing defense and space tech company.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 98-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Redwire Corporation established a new at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program on June 9, 2026, with an equity distribution agreement allowing sales of up to $500 million of common stock through eleven agents including Truist Securities, JPMorgan, and BofA Securities. Sales may be made on NYSE or in block trades and privately negotiated transactions; agents earn up to 3% commission. This creates a $500M dilution overhang via ongoing ATM sales for working capital and general corporate purposes.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 9424B5
AI summary

Redwire Corporation filed a prospectus supplement (424B5) registering up to $500 million of common stock for sale under its at-the-market offering program, using the shelf registration (Reg. No. 333-289380). Agent commission is up to 3% of gross proceeds; the last reported sale price was $18.57 per share as of June 8, 2026. This is the prospectus companion to the simultaneously-filed 8-K (Item 1.01) — both together establish the $500M ATM facility now active for ongoing dilutive share sales.

8-KShareholder voteMay 208-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07) and an other-event disclosure (Item 8.01). Redwire is a Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure and technology company listed on the NYSE. The additional Item 8.01 alongside the routine annual meeting disclosure may signal a concurrent business announcement; space infrastructure companies with defense customers often have material contract-related news.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 20SC 13D/A
AI summary

AE Red Holdings, LLC, a Boca Raton, Florida-based entity, filed Amendment No. 21 to its Schedule 13D on May 18, 2026 regarding Redwire Corporation (RDW, CUSIP 75776W103). AE Red Holdings has been a major shareholder and affiliated party of Redwire, the Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure company. This 21st amendment reflects a change in AE Red Holdings' stake or stated intentions with respect to Redwire; given the affiliate relationship, these disclosures track closely with Redwire's corporate governance.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 6424B5
AI summary

RDW filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-06, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $8.69 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

+ 24 other (8 SC 13D/As · 4 8-Ks · 3 3s · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Here's Why Investors Shouldn't Worry About Redwire's CEO Selling 25,369 Sharesfool.com·18h agoRedwire Receives $21.5 Million Follow-On Order from Portfolio Acquisition Executive Robotic Autonomous Systems (PAE RAS) to Deliver Stalker UAS Advanced Navigation and Standard Systemsbusinesswire.com·2d agoShould You Buy Redwire Stock After It Just Crashed 61%?fool.com·5d agoRDW Falls 28.8% in the Past Month: What Should Investors Do?zacks.com·8d ago3 Forgotten Space Economy Stocks That Could Deliver Colossal Gains Over the Next 10 Yearsfool.com·9d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 8 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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