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RDRDW

Redwire Corp

$RDW·$2.1B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$8.39-5.8%YTD+15.7%1Y-1.9%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
RDRDW
$RDWRedwire Corp
$8.39-5.84%620 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $RDW on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

620X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $RDW's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data11 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

X is bullish on Redwire — RDW is up 28% YTD (the best-performing space name), 70% of this week's 109K option contracts were calls, revenue is up 90% YoY, backlog is up 134.6%, and the stock just won selection into the Space Force's $981M NITE-STAR contract vehicle. The honest sell-side counter is BofA Underperform at $8 and CFRA Strong Sell, both of which bulls say are reading last year's numbers (Q2 margins flipped sharply positive).

Read what X is saying about $RDW

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $RDW — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Redwire just got into a $981M Space Force contract vehicle — revenue grew 90% and the chart is still 26% up the 52-week range.

Redwire makes components and services for space infrastructure — solar arrays, deployable structures, in-space manufacturing. The company just made the shortlist for a Space Force contract vehicle, and the growth numbers are inflecting hard.

  • The commercial momentum is real: Q1 revenue +58% YoY and management-cited +90% in another quarter, with backlog +134.6% YoY and gross margin flipping to +27.8% — the P&L is finally translating years of pipeline into revenue.
  • The NITE-STAR shortlist is the catalyst: one of 15 eligible on a $981M Space Force contract vehicle — not yet a signed task order, but a visible path to real defense-grade revenue over the next 12 months.
  • 52-week range position is 26% with 70% of this week's option volume in calls — the chart has digested its earlier run and positioning is leaning long into the Nov 4 earnings print.

Nov 4 Q3 is the gate — any awarded task orders under NITE-STAR plus continued revenue growth above 50% extends the move. A task-order delay or any gross-margin reversion and this one gives back the recent accumulation.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right drivers — NITE-STAR shortlist, option-flow bias, revenue and backlog growth, Q2 gross-margin flip — and the dismissal of sell-side underperforms is defensible given the Q2 margin print changed the story.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 earnings — any awarded NITE-STAR task orders, backlog growth, and operating-margin trajectory. A gross-margin reversion to negative is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $RDW

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes mission-critical space hardware (solar arrays, antennas, sensors) and digital engineering software for defense and civil space programs.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RDW.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — Defense procurement backlogs remain intact on NATO 2% GDP commitments.

What this means for $RDW

Partial — Makes mission-critical space hardware (solar arrays, antennas, sensors) and digital engineering software for defense and civil space programs.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
-5.3%YTD
+1.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-15.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-19.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-76.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-29.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
9.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$-0.19$-0.16-21.6%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.40$-0.16-150.0%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$-0.58$-0.16-262.5%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$-0.29$-0.12-141.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $-0.12

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$97.0M+57.9%26.6%-70.9%$-0.40$-12.4M
Q4 FY25$108.8M+56.4%9.6%-75.0%$-0.58$-26.5M
Q3 FY25$103.4M+50.7%16.3%-40.5%$-0.29$-27.8M
Q2 FY25$61.8M-20.9%-30.9%-149%$-1.41$-90.6M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$475.3M$469.2M – $481.4M-$0.75-$0.97 – -$0.467
FY27$563.9M$538.6M – $589.2M-$0.34-$0.43 – -$0.226
FY28$674.6M$656.1M – $703.2M-$0.12-$0.19 – -$0.053

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.16%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-24.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-24.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 129.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today9.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.135-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 23Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector929.4K sh$10.5MSellJun 11Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.1M sh$23.0MSellMay 18Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector15.2M sh$209.6MSellApr 22Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector21.4M sh$231.8MSellApr 21Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector977.9K sh$10.3MSellApr 20Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.8M sh$18.1M
+ 24 other (11 awards · 11 inkinds · 1 inthemoney · 1 conversion) in window

See when $RDW insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-K/AShareholder vote (amended)Oct 88-K/A — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
3New insider — initial holdingsJul 143
AI summary

James H. Romaker filed an initial Form 3 on July 14, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership of Redwire Corporation (RDW) securities. This filing establishes Romaker's Section 16(a) reporting position as a newly appointed officer or director. Specific securities held were not detailed in the excerpt.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) announced on July 14, 2026, the appointment of John Heston as an independent director to its board of directors and as a member of the Audit Committee. Heston is a retired Ernst & Young partner with 38 years of public accounting experience, including 24 years as a partner. His appointment adds significant financial oversight expertise to Redwire's board as the company continues its growth in the space infrastructure sector.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) amended its credit agreement on June 30, 2026, increasing the revolving credit facility from $30 million to $50 million and simultaneously prepaying $40 million of term loans, reducing the outstanding term loan balance to $50 million. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. acts as administrative and collateral agent. The combined effect is a larger, more flexible revolver paired with reduced fixed debt obligations. This is a positive balance sheet action — improved liquidity headroom and lower term debt, consistent with Redwire's positioning as a growing defense and space tech company.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 98-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Redwire Corporation established a new at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program on June 9, 2026, with an equity distribution agreement allowing sales of up to $500 million of common stock through eleven agents including Truist Securities, JPMorgan, and BofA Securities. Sales may be made on NYSE or in block trades and privately negotiated transactions; agents earn up to 3% commission. This creates a $500M dilution overhang via ongoing ATM sales for working capital and general corporate purposes.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 9424B5
AI summary

Redwire Corporation filed a prospectus supplement (424B5) registering up to $500 million of common stock for sale under its at-the-market offering program, using the shelf registration (Reg. No. 333-289380). Agent commission is up to 3% of gross proceeds; the last reported sale price was $18.57 per share as of June 8, 2026. This is the prospectus companion to the simultaneously-filed 8-K (Item 1.01) — both together establish the $500M ATM facility now active for ongoing dilutive share sales.

8-KShareholder voteMay 208-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07) and an other-event disclosure (Item 8.01). Redwire is a Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure and technology company listed on the NYSE. The additional Item 8.01 alongside the routine annual meeting disclosure may signal a concurrent business announcement; space infrastructure companies with defense customers often have material contract-related news.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 20SC 13D/A
AI summary

AE Red Holdings, LLC, a Boca Raton, Florida-based entity, filed Amendment No. 21 to its Schedule 13D on May 18, 2026 regarding Redwire Corporation (RDW, CUSIP 75776W103). AE Red Holdings has been a major shareholder and affiliated party of Redwire, the Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure company. This 21st amendment reflects a change in AE Red Holdings' stake or stated intentions with respect to Redwire; given the affiliate relationship, these disclosures track closely with Redwire's corporate governance.

+ 13 other (3 13Gs · 3 SC 13D/As · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Redwire Secures Additional Orders to Deliver Stalker UAS to U.S. National Guard for the Army's Next-Generation Drone Operatorsbusinesswire.com·2d agoCan Redwire's VLEO Spacecraft Expand Mission Opportunities?zacks.com·4d agoFinal Pair of Redwire ROSA Wings Launch to the ISS, Completing Historic Power Modernization Effortbusinesswire.com·5d agoRedwire (NYSE:RDW) Stock Price Down 1.8% – Here’s Whydefenseworld.net·6d agoSpaceX Is Public. Here's What $1,000 in Each of These 5 Space Stocks Could Be Worth by 2030.fool.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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