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FLFLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

$FLY·$4.0B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$19.03-9.1%YTD-17.7%1Y-68.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 90 posts2026-07-11: 95 posts2026-07-12: 116 posts2026-07-13: 118 posts2026-07-14: 83 posts2026-07-15: 142 posts2026-07-16: 134 posts785+15%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 5h ago
FLFLY
$FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.
$19.03-9.12%785 posts+15%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $FLY, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Firefly Aerospace IPO'd at $48 in May and now trades at $21 — a discounted space play stacking real NASA milestones behind the price crash.

Firefly Aerospace is a US space and defense technology company building launch vehicles, lunar landers (Blue Ghost), and orbital services for NASA and commercial customers. The stock IPO'd at $48 on May 28 and is now at $21.55, down 55% from the offer and down 64% over twelve months on a post-IPO retracement that has left the tape coiling near the 200-day.

Where the mechanics actually stand:

  • Growth is real for a post-IPO space name: Q1 revenue grew 45% year-on-year to $80.9M, and Q4 2025 revenue grew 174% — the fundamental milestones are showing up in the numbers, but operating margin at -118% reflects the pre-scale burn that all early-stage space names carry.
  • The NASA pipeline is stacking: two new NASA awards, Blue Ghost Mission 2 primary structures completing acceptance testing and readied for assembly, CEO Jason Kim publicly discussing the NASA Skyfall Mars mission — these are the specific contract-flow signals that separate real space businesses from vaporware.
  • The technical setup is compressed: shares at just the 9.6th percentile of the 52-week range, 39% below the 50-day and 24% below the 200-day — a coil in oversold territory rather than a runaway breakdown.
  • The valuation is expensive on trailing sales (32x P/S) but sensible on forward: consensus revenue trajectory (Q1 $80.9M, Q4 2025 $57.7M) suggests the company is capable of $400M+ annualized run-rate as programs mature.

The September 28 earnings is the coil-release event — a beat with FY26 revenue guide holding plus concrete Blue Ghost Mission 2 launch-window commentary is what powers the tape back toward $30, while another quarter of deep operating losses without concrete near-term contract flow is what would extend the coiling into a re-test of the recent lows.

Agrees with X sentimentX's Elliott-wave Wave 2 zone at $25-$21 with a Wave 3 target of $85-$99 is aggressively bullish but genuinely supported by the NASA contract flow, the Blue Ghost Mission 2 milestones, and the peer-comparison framing with RKLB and SPCX. The bull thesis is real, though timing is uncertain.

What to watch: The September 28 Q2 print — FY26 revenue guidance, Blue Ghost Mission 2 launch-window commentary, and NASA contract-award pipeline. A beat with intact guide powers the run back toward $30; deep operating losses without contract flow extend the coiling to recent lows.

On the calendar: 2026-09-28 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment22 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Firefly Aerospace chatter is bullish patience. Community sets entry zone $19.42-27.57 with sell zone $110 and wave-3 targets of $85-99. FLY CEO Jason Kim has appeared on Schwab Network and Boardroom Exclusives to discuss AI-powered software integration and NASA Skyfall/Mars readiness. F-104 airborne-launcher narrative highlights the emerging air-drop launch category with FLY as a competitor. Bulls describe consistent good-news drip that will eventually get priced in. Community adds back long-term shares at $24 after selling near $58. Community frames FLY as one of the best-valued space stocks alongside RKLB and SPCX with 235% upside remaining.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $FLY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops small and medium launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and lunar delivery services (Blue Ghost) for government and commercial customers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FLY.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $FLY

Partial — Develops small and medium launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and lunar delivery services (Blue Ghost) for government and commercial customers; the defense budget expansion and space commercialization is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+7.1%YTD
+18.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-17.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-21.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-159%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
32.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-57.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
19.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 4, 2026$-0.46$-0.50+8.0%
Q4 2025Mar 19, 2026$-0.38$-0.48+20.8%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$-0.33$-0.41+19.4%
Q2 2025Sep 22, 2025$-5.30$-0.42-1161.9%
Next earningsMon, Sep 28·consensus EPS $-0.50

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$80.9M+44.8%12.7%-118%$-0.61$-78.9M
Q4 FY25$57.7M+173.7%22.0%-141%$-0.26$-79.3M
Q3 FY25$30.8M+270.1%27.6%-202%$-0.95$-62.0M
Q2 FY25$15.5M—25.7%-350%$-0.56$-37.3M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$440.9M$434.7M – $446.3M-$1.96-$2.43 – -$1.627
FY27$704.9M$635.7M – $761.5M-$1.29-$1.59 – -$1.057
FY28$1.1B$1.1B – $1.1B-$0.52-$0.72 – -$0.386
FY29$1.7B$1.6B – $1.8B$0.50$0.45 – $0.545
FY30$2.1B$2.0B – $2.2B$2.54$2.30 – $2.753

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.5%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-45.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-32.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 142.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.395-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 18Wheeler David LeighGeneral Counsel3.8K sh$170KSellApr 17Wheeler David LeighGeneral Counsel3.8K sh$170K
+ 24 other (21 awards · 2 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $FLY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 233
AI summary

Form 3 filed by A new officer/director (Other (specify below) General Counsel & Secretary 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: Remarks: Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney No securities are beneficially owned. /s/ Nathan O'Konek 06/23/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at FLY on 2026-06-23. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace priced its IPO at $48.00 per share on May 28, 2026 and entered an underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo; listed on Nasdaq as 'FLY.' Transformative: Firefly becomes publicly traded and enters public capital markets.

424B4Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 1424B4
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) IPO 424B4 prospectus: closing price $49.37 on May 28, 2026; company using proceeds for general corporate and working capital purposes; selling stockholders receive separate proceeds; AE Industrial Partners retains board nomination rights post-IPO. IPO complete and trading on Nasdaq; dilutive for incoming holders relative to pre-IPO valuation.

S-1Initial registrationMay 26S-1
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) filed an S-1 registration statement on May 26, 2026, initiating an initial public offering process. The company is a Delaware aerospace manufacturer (SIC 3761) headquartered in Leander, Texas, led by CEO Jason Kim; counsel includes Kirkland & Ellis and Davis Polk. Firefly is an emerging growth company and non-accelerated filer. No offering price, share count, or total size is specified in this initial filing; the registration is not yet effective.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

FLY disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-21). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 38-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

FLY entered into a amendment (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-03). Counterparty: Company, the other loan parties thereto, the lenders and issuing banks party the. Size: approximately $45 million. Rate: 0.25%. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 38-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 12 other (2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 D · 1 EFFECT) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Firefly Aerospace to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 11, 2026globenewswire.com·1d agoGoldman Sachs: Space Economy's $1 Trillion Future Is ‘When, Not If'247wallst.com·2d agoFirefly Aerospace: Space Wreck Opportunityseekingalpha.com·2d agoFirefly Aerospace: A Long-Duration Growth Story Trading At A Post-Crash Discountseekingalpha.com·3d agoFirefly Aerospace: Potential Next Space Winner To Buyseekingalpha.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 8 · last 7 days

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