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FLFLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

$FLY·$4.4B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$21.12-0.7%YTD+1.0%1Y-52.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 11 posts2026-08-23: 22 posts602-1%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
FLFLY
$FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.
$21.12-0.66%602 posts-1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $FLY, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-09-01

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

A small-rocket space stock trading near the lows while a genuine SpaceX-driven rocket shortage narrative sets up.

Firefly Aerospace builds small-to-medium launch vehicles (Alpha, MLV under development) plus lunar-lander missions for NASA and defense customers. The equity has spent its first public year working off IPO-hype hangover and now sits at the 11th percentile of its 52-week range with a bullish narrative forming underneath.

  • Revenue growth is real: latest quarter $81M (+45% YoY), Q4 2025 was +174%, and analyst estimates for FY26 revenue of $440M and FY27 of $695M imply 60%+ growth continuing — the top line is ramping, the bottom line is not.
  • Operating profile is characteristic of a hardware startup pre-scale: operating margin at -118%, quarterly free cash outflow around $79M — the business needs launch-cadence ramp and NASA lunar contracts to hit before the burn becomes serviceable.
  • Position at only 11% of the 52-week range on volume running 71% of normal is a coiled setup, not broken — the tape has stopped selling but isn't buying yet, waiting for a milestone.
  • The narrative catalyst is real: SpaceX not accepting new dedicated Falcon 9 customers past 2028 has created a genuine rocket-shortage gap for small-medium payloads — the question is whether FLY's execution matches the opportunity.

The path forward requires a successful Alpha launch cadence with paying customers landing in H2 2026, plus MLV maiden-flight milestones on schedule. A launch failure or an MLV schedule slip invalidates the coiled setup; a clean manifest plus MLV progress restarts the breakout.

Agrees with X sentimentAligned with the bulls' setup thesis: the rocket-shortage narrative (SpaceX not taking new dedicated Falcon 9 customers past 2028) is a real supply gap, and 45% Q1 revenue growth backs the ramp. The 'has achieved virtually nothing' dry note is fair — execution risk is real — but the buyout-candidate framing at 11x cheaper than RKLB is a legit relative call.

What to watch: Alpha launch cadence and success rate through H2 2026, MLV maiden-flight schedule updates, and any named commercial launch-services contract wins. A launch failure or a public MLV timeline slip invalidates the coiled setup; a clean manifest plus milestone hits restart the breakout.

On the calendar: 2026-11-11 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment20 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Bullish. Firefly Aerospace fans are loading up on the thesis that the launch market has a "rocket shortage" with SPCX not accepting new dedicated Falcon 9 customers past 2028 — one poster explicitly names FLY as a buyout candidate at "11 times cheaper than a $RKLB." Long-dated space bulls treat levels near 2026 lows as opportunity, though one dryly notes FLY "has achieved virtually nothing" yet trades in lockstep with the sector.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $FLY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops small and medium launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and lunar delivery services (Blue Ghost) for government and commercial customers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FLY.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

Defense budget tailwinds — NATO spending commitments and Pentagon procurement acceleration — support backlogs at prime contractors. Commercial space is a separate driver: launch cadence and satellite constellations are pulling RKLB and LUNR on their own momentum, independent of traditional defense spending.

What this means for $FLY

Direct beneficiary — commercial launch cadence and satellite constellation demand are the primary revenue drivers; Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+16.3%YTD
+15.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-17.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-21.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-159%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
32.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-57.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
19.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 11, 2026$-0.42$-0.51+18.1%
Q1 2026May 4, 2026$-0.46$-0.50+8.0%
Q4 2025Mar 19, 2026$-0.38$-0.48+20.8%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$-1.50$-0.41-266.5%
Next earningsWed, Nov 11·consensus EPS $-0.50

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$80.9M+44.8%12.7%-118%$-0.61$-78.9M
Q4 FY25$57.7M+173.7%22.0%-141%$-0.26$-79.3M
Q3 FY25$30.8M+270.1%27.6%-202%$-0.95$-62.0M
Q2 FY25$15.5M—25.7%-350%$-0.56$-37.3M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$440.4M$434.2M – $445.7M-$1.99-$2.47 – -$1.648
FY27$695.6M$627.2M – $751.4M-$1.28-$1.57 – -$1.048
FY28$1.1B$943.0M – $1.3B-$0.66-$1.34 – -$0.367
FY29$1.4B$1.3B – $1.6B-$0.71-$0.80 – -$0.633
FY30$2.1B$1.9B – $2.3B$2.54$2.27 – $2.886

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.11%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-11.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-23.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 142.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.695-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 18Wheeler David LeighGeneral Counsel3.8K sh$170KSellApr 17Wheeler David LeighGeneral Counsel3.8K sh$170K
+ 18 other (14 awards · 2 others · 2 exempts) in window

See when $FLY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 233
AI summary

Form 3 filed by A new officer/director (Other (specify below) General Counsel & Secretary 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: Remarks: Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney No securities are beneficially owned. /s/ Nathan O'Konek 06/23/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at FLY on 2026-06-23. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace priced its IPO at $48.00 per share on May 28, 2026 and entered an underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo; listed on Nasdaq as 'FLY.' Transformative: Firefly becomes publicly traded and enters public capital markets.

424B4Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 1424B4
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) IPO 424B4 prospectus: closing price $49.37 on May 28, 2026; company using proceeds for general corporate and working capital purposes; selling stockholders receive separate proceeds; AE Industrial Partners retains board nomination rights post-IPO. IPO complete and trading on Nasdaq; dilutive for incoming holders relative to pre-IPO valuation.

S-1Initial registrationMay 26S-1
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) filed an S-1 registration statement on May 26, 2026, initiating an initial public offering process. The company is a Delaware aerospace manufacturer (SIC 3761) headquartered in Leander, Texas, led by CEO Jason Kim; counsel includes Kirkland & Ellis and Davis Polk. Firefly is an emerging growth company and non-accelerated filer. No offering price, share count, or total size is specified in this initial filing; the registration is not yet effective.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

FLY disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-21). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 38-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

FLY entered into a amendment (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-03). Counterparty: Company, the other loan parties thereto, the lenders and issuing banks party the. Size: approximately $45 million. Rate: 0.25%. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 19 other (3 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 CORRESPs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

EXCLUSIVE: AI Is Connecting Moon Missions With Missile Defense, Firefly CEO Saysbenzinga.com·3d agoEXCLUSIVE: SpaceX May Lead the Launch Market, but Firefly CEO Says There's Still a Rocket Shortagebenzinga.com·4d agoAST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Outer Space Upstart Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·5d agoFirefly Aerospace Worth A Bet As The Space Race Diversifiesseekingalpha.com·11d agoFirefly Aerospace: Riding The Space Race Higherseekingalpha.com·12d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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