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FLFLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

$FLY·$2.8B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$16.75-6.1%YTD-26.4%1Y-40.3%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
FLFLY
$FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.
$16.75-6.06%1.9k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $FLY on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,919X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $FLY's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data13 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The $FLY feed is a $GIGA memecoin spin-off ("Gigafly") — holders are posting 10x and $100B meme-cycle predictions, pairing $GIGA with $FLY as 23% of supply, and claiming $FLY is as under-the-radar as RKLB was at $3.40. The thread is pure degen enthusiasm with iHS and monthly-support TA sprinkled in. There is no bearish presence because this is a pre-rally hype build.

Read what X is saying about $FLY

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $FLY — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Too early to tellStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Newly public small-launch and lunar-lander company — revenue scaling fast off a tiny base while the stock sits near its post-IPO low.

Firefly Aerospace is the newly public US small-launch and lunar-lander company competing with Rocket Lab and the SpaceX small-sat alternatives. Revenue is scaling fast off a tiny base, the stock is near its post-IPO low, and X is treating it as a meme while the real business tries to find its commercial scale.

  • Revenue growth is real but tiny: Q1 2026 at $80.9M was +45% YoY and +40% QoQ as launch cadence picks up — consensus has $440M for 2026 and $685M for 2027 if the Alpha rocket schedule holds.
  • The P&L is deeply red: -159% operating margins mean every dollar of revenue burns $1.60 — the equity needs launch cadence to double before economics turn.
  • The X $FLY feed is a $GIGA memecoin pairing ("Gigafly") and 100x price predictions — zero relation to the rocket company. The genuinely relevant signals are compensation-related insider M-Exempts, not real buys.

A Nov 11 earnings print with Alpha-rocket cadence picking up and a visible lunar-mission contract keeps the move; another launch slip and the stock stays near the lows while cash runway tightens.

Differs from X sentimentThe X $FLY feed is almost entirely about a $GIGA memecoin spin-off ("Gigafly") and 100x meme predictions pairing $GIGA with $FLY — not Firefly Aerospace, the rocket company in this bundle. The crowd's "next RKLB at $3.40" line is tempting but based on hype, not operating data.

What to watch: Nov 11 Q3 earnings — Alpha-rocket launch cadence for the quarter, any new lunar-mission contract wins, and cash runway. A delay in Alpha schedule or a required capital raise is the hard break; a signed government mission contract is the clearest re-rate catalyst.

On the calendar: 2026-11-11 — Q3 2026 earnings

sentiment mismatched asset

Read the AI verdict on $FLY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops small and medium launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and lunar delivery services (Blue Ghost) for government and commercial customers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FLY.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — Defense procurement backlogs remain intact on NATO 2% GDP commitments.

What this means for $FLY

Neutral — Develops small and medium launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and lunar delivery services (Blue Ghost) for government and commercial customers.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
-5.3%YTD
+1.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-17.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-21.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-159%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
32.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-57.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
19.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 11, 2026$-0.42$-0.51+18.1%
Q1 2026May 4, 2026$-0.46$-0.50+8.0%
Q4 2025Mar 19, 2026$-0.38$-0.48+20.8%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$-1.50$-0.41-266.5%
Next earningsTue, Nov 10·consensus EPS $-0.53

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$80.9M+44.8%12.7%-118%$-0.61$-78.9M
Q4 FY25$57.7M+173.7%22.0%-141%$-0.26$-79.3M
Q3 FY25$30.8M+270.1%27.6%-202%$-0.95$-62.0M
Q2 FY25$15.5M—25.7%-350%$-0.56$-37.3M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$439.4M$428.2M – $452.4M-$1.96-$2.10 – -$1.887
FY27$684.9M$592.8M – $737.9M-$1.50-$1.55 – -$1.448
FY28$1.1B$996.0M – $1.2B-$0.66-$1.22 – -$0.327
FY29$1.3B$1.2B – $1.4B-$0.32-$0.35 – -$0.293
FY30$1.8B$1.6B – $1.9B$1.01$0.90 – $1.105

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.2%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-25.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-39.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 145.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.725-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 18Wheeler David LeighGeneral Counsel3.8K sh$170K
+ 19 other (9 awards · 5 inkinds · 3 exempts · 2 others) in window

See when $FLY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsOct 73
8-KOfficer or director changeOct 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
3New insider — initial holdingsJun 233
AI summary

Form 3 filed by A new officer/director (Other (specify below) General Counsel & Secretary 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: Remarks: Exhibit 24.1 - Power of Attorney No securities are beneficially owned. /s/ Nathan O'Konek 06/23/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at FLY on 2026-06-23. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace priced its IPO at $48.00 per share on May 28, 2026 and entered an underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo; listed on Nasdaq as 'FLY.' Transformative: Firefly becomes publicly traded and enters public capital markets.

424B4Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 1424B4
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) IPO 424B4 prospectus: closing price $49.37 on May 28, 2026; company using proceeds for general corporate and working capital purposes; selling stockholders receive separate proceeds; AE Industrial Partners retains board nomination rights post-IPO. IPO complete and trading on Nasdaq; dilutive for incoming holders relative to pre-IPO valuation.

S-1Initial registrationMay 26S-1
AI summary

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) filed an S-1 registration statement on May 26, 2026, initiating an initial public offering process. The company is a Delaware aerospace manufacturer (SIC 3761) headquartered in Leander, Texas, led by CEO Jason Kim; counsel includes Kirkland & Ellis and Davis Polk. Firefly is an emerging growth company and non-accelerated filer. No offering price, share count, or total size is specified in this initial filing; the registration is not yet effective.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

FLY disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-21). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 CORRESPs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Firefly Aerospace to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 10, 2026globenewswire.com·3d agoFirefly Aerospace vs. Intuitive Machines: Which Space Infrastructure Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·4d agoAST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Space-Based Venture's Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·5d agoHead-To-Head Survey: Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) & MDA Space (NYSE:MDA)defenseworld.net·5d agoFirefly Aerospace vs. Rocket Lab: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·7d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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