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AIAIR

AAR Corp.

$AIR·$5.1B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$140.80+2.8%YTD+64.7%1Y+78.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-21: 37 posts2026-07-22: 34 posts2026-07-23: 15 posts2026-07-24: 11 posts2026-07-25: 11 posts2026-07-26: 6 posts2026-07-27: 13 posts128+8%
Price updated 7m ago·X counts updated 23h ago
AIAIR
$AIRAAR Corp.
$140.80+2.83%128 posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AIR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-27

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

The aerospace-services specialist is up 55% YTD with 23% revenue growth — a rare growth-plus-defense-tailwind combo.

AAR Corp provides aviation services to global commercial airlines, governments, and defense — MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul), parts distribution, and integrated supply-chain services. Up 55% YTD as the commercial-aerospace-cycle and defense-services demand have both inflected.

  • The core is accelerating: Q4 (May) revenue grew 23% YoY to $928M at 19% gross margin and 8% operating margin, EPS $1.53 beat $1.38 (11% surprise) — the growth cadence is real and broad-based.
  • Analyst estimates model the ramp: FY26 revenue of $3.27B rising to $3.63B FY27 and $3.88B FY28 with EPS scaling to $6.58 — sell-side is pricing continued commercial-aviation demand and government-service growth.
  • A fresh S-3ASR shelf was just filed: July 22 automatic shelf registration keeps capital-raise optionality open — could fund M&A or accelerated capex, but is a modest overhang given no immediate issuance signal.
  • Setup is upper-range: shares at 77% of the 52-week range, 3% above the 50-day, 22% above the 200-day, beta 1.09 — a name digesting the recent gains rather than stretching further.

September 22 (Q1 FY27) is the next referee — sustained 20%+ revenue growth plus concrete government-services contract flow restarts the compounder move; any commercial-airline weakness or defense-program timing slip would give bears an entry back below the 50-day. This is a real growth-plus-defense-tailwind story at a reasonable 27x P/E.

What to watch: September 22 FY-Q1 earnings: watch revenue growth (needs to stay above 20%), government/defense services segment growth, commercial-aviation MRO commentary, and FY27 guide; sustained 20%+ growth restarts the move.

On the calendar: 2026-09-22 — FY-Q1 earnings

commercial aviation cycledefense services tailwindpost run pause

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

AAR Corp. delivers a wide array of products and services to the global commercial aviation, government, and defense sectors. Its Aviation Services division focuses on comprehensive aftermarket support, encompassing inventory management, distribution, and extensive maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) capabilities, alongside specialized engineering services. This segment is also involved in the sale and leasing of new, reconditioned, and repaired aircraft engine and airframe components. It manages tailored inventory and repair programs, processes warranty claims, and provides outsourcing solutions for these critical parts. Furthermore, it implements performance-based supply chain logistics programs specifically designed for the U.S. Department of Defense and international governmental bodies. A full suite of airframe services is offered, including inspection, maintenance, repair, overhaul, painting, line maintenance, modifications, structural repairs, avionics installation, and both exterior and interior refurbishment, complemented by engineering and support. The company also performs repair and overhaul on vital components such as landing gears, wheels, and brakes. The Expeditionary Services division is dedicated to facilitating the movement of equipment and personnel for the U.S. and international governments, as well as non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Its capabilities extend to the design, manufacturing, and repair of various transportation pallets, containers, and shelters. This segment also provides engineering, design, and system integration expertise for sophisticated command and control systems. AAR's diverse clientele includes both domestic and international passenger and cargo airlines, regional and commuter carriers, business and general aviation operators, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), aircraft leasing firms, other aftermarket aviation support enterprises, and military customers globally. Its marketing and sales efforts are primarily conducted through its dedicated employees and a network of international sales representatives. Established in 1951, AAR Corp. maintains its corporate headquarters in Wood Dale, Illinois.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AIR.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+13.2%YTD
+23.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
26.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
12.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
18.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 21, 2026$1.53$1.38+10.9%
Q4 2025Mar 24, 2026$1.25$1.15+8.7%
Q4 2025Jan 6, 2026$1.18$1.02+15.7%
Q2 2025Sep 23, 2025$1.08$0.98+9.8%
Next earningsTue, Sep 22·consensus EPS $1.32

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$928.0M+23.0%19.0%8.1%$1.29$57.8M
Q3 FY26$845.1M+24.6%18.3%7.6%$1.72$41.7M
Q2 FY26$795.3M+15.9%19.7%8.6%$0.91$6.2M
Q1 FY26$739.6M+11.8%18.1%8.8%$0.96$-53.6M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.3B$3.2B – $3.3B$4.91$4.83 – $5.005
FY27$3.6B$3.6B – $3.7B$5.67$5.64 – $5.703
FY28$3.9B$3.8B – $3.9B$6.58$6.47 – $6.703
FY29$4.1B$4.0B – $4.2B$7.36$7.24 – $7.502
FY30$4.3B$4.2B – $4.4B$8.60$8.46 – $8.761

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.87%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+8.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+29.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 38.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.095-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 27Holmes John Mcclain IiiCEO23.9K sh$2.6MSellMar 26Holmes John Mcclain IiiCEO60.0K sh$6.7MSellMar 26Jessica A. GarasciaSenior VP, GC, CAO & Secretary2.1K sh$240KSellMar 26Billy NolenDirector1.6K sh$173KSellFeb 4Flanagan Sarah LouiseCFO10.8K sh$1.2MSellFeb 3Holmes John Mcclain IiiCEO10.0K sh$1.1M
+ 31 other (25 awards · 5 exempts · 1 gift) in window

See when $AIR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 248-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

AIR filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a personnel change: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The filing also covers Item(s) 9.01. Personnel changes at the executive or board level are typically administrative but can signal strategic shifts depending on context.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJul 22S-3ASR
AI summary

AAR CORP. (Wood Dale, Illinois) filed an S-3ASR automatic shelf registration statement on July 22, 2026, which becomes immediately effective upon filing as the company qualifies as a well-known seasoned issuer (WKSI). The registration covers securities to be offered on a delayed or continuous basis under Rule 415. The filing was prepared by Jones Day counsel (Hannah Fregolle and Edward Winslow) with General Counsel Jessica Garascia as agent for service. The specific dollar amount and types of securities (common stock, debt, warrants, or others) are detailed in the full registration statement and any accompanying prospectus supplements. The S-3ASR shelf gives AAR — a provider of aviation services to commercial airlines and government customers — maximum flexibility to access capital markets quickly when market conditions are favorable.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 128-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 68-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 248-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 33
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 10 other (5 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 10-K · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Here's Why AAR (AIR) is a Strong Growth Stockzacks.com·5d agoIs AAR (AIR) Stock Outpacing Its Aerospace Peers This Year?zacks.com·5d agoAllspring Global Investments Holdings LLC Cuts Stock Position in AAR Corp. $AIRdefenseworld.net·6d agoAAR: Buy The Connected Aftermarket Storyseekingalpha.com·6d agoAAR Corp. (AIR) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·7d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 5 · last 7 days

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