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AVAVAV

AeroVironment, Inc.

$AVAV·$9.5B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$148.35+0.3%YTD-32.0%1Y-38.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 19 posts2026-08-23: 15 posts2026-08-24: 64 posts271+8%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
AVAVAV
$AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.
$148.35+0.28%271 posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AVAV, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

AeroVironment at 4% of its 52-week range with a NASA-JPL SkyFall Mars contract and $1.2B of 2026 awards — value setup into a Sept 9 print.

AeroVironment is a defense-technology company — Switchblade loitering munitions, Puma/RQ-11 tactical drones, and the BlueHalo counter-UAS acquisition. The setup is a broken-story-turned-value-turnaround with a very specific print catalyst.

  • The Q1 print landed strong: fiscal Q1 EPS beat at $1.84 vs a $1.46 consensus (a 26% beat), revenue at $641.6M grew significantly, and the sell side models FY revenue climbing from ~$1.89B this year to ~$2.19B in FY27 and ~$2.52B in FY28 — a real compounding curve after the BlueHalo acquisition digestion.
  • The contract tape is stacking: NASA JPL awarded AV a contract for three autonomous helicopters for the SkyFall Mars mission (2028), a fresh $51M Army order for Switchblade 600 Block 2, ~$1.2B of 2026 awards (~$777M funded plus a new $500M Domestic Shield C-UAS IDIQ), and a $100M consolidation to a Moorpark campus — the pipeline is genuinely dated.
  • The tape doesn't yet believe it: AVAV sits at 4.5% of its 52-week range and 31% below the 200-day, with sub-$100K insider selling in the last two weeks and normal board refresh (Ruppert joining, Burbage retiring) — the crowd is buying the dip at $149-151 with the argument that BlueHalo synergies (Locust, Titan, Halo Shield) and the pipeline are underappreciated.

Everything happens on the September 9 fiscal Q1 print — a clean beat with reiterated FY26 guide plus updated BlueHalo synergy color is what breaks the event-ahead up toward $200; another quarter of margin pressure or a soft BlueHalo integration read confirms the drift near the 52-week low. The NASA-JPL Mars contract is the surprising fresh signal that suggests the model is broader than the crowd is pricing.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the fresh NASA JPL contract for three Mars helicopters (SkyFall 2028), the $51M Army order for Switchblade 600 Block 2, ~$1.2B of 2026 awards including the $500M Domestic Shield C-UAS IDIQ, the $100M Moorpark campus consolidation, and the buy-the-dip framing at $149-151 is factually consistent with the announcements and filings. The minority "BlueHalo synergies underappreciated" frustration is fair.

What to watch: The September 9 fiscal Q1 earnings — need a clean beat with reiterated FY26 guide, updated BlueHalo synergy color (Locust, Titan, Halo Shield revenue), and Switchblade Block 2 volume commentary. Another quarter of margin pressure or a soft BlueHalo integration read confirms the drift near the 52-week low; a clean beat plus BlueHalo synergy update breaks event-ahead up toward $200.

On the calendar: 2026-09-09 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment37 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

X is bullish on AVAV despite widespread pain, with the stock down roughly 65% from highs and holders openly grumbling that 'everyday govt talks drones yet the stocks fall.' The dominant camp is buying weakness on the strength of $2.7B in FY26 bookings, a new $500M Domestic Shield C-UAS IDIQ, fresh Switchblade orders and the pending Army E-HEL laser contract, framing sub-$150 as generational-buildout entry.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AVAV

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes small tactical drones (Raven, Puma) and Switchblade loitering munitions for US and allied military forces.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AVAV.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

Defense budget tailwinds — NATO spending commitments and Pentagon procurement acceleration — support backlogs at prime contractors. Commercial space is a separate driver: launch cadence and satellite constellations are pulling RKLB and LUNR on their own momentum, independent of traditional defense spending.

What this means for $AVAV

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; AeroVironment Inc.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+16.3%YTD
+15.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-40.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-1.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-6.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
21.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 29, 2026$1.84$1.46+26.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.64$0.68-5.6%
Q3 2025Dec 9, 2025$0.44$0.78-43.3%
Q2 2025Sep 9, 2025$0.32$0.37-12.4%
Next earningsWed, Sep 9·consensus EPS $0.26

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$408.0M+143.4%17.1%-5.1%$-3.15$-17.7M
Q2 FY26$472.5M+150.7%17.4%-4.6%$-0.34$-22.4M
Q1 FY26$454.7M+140.0%20.9%-15.2%$-2.40$-146.5M
Q4 FY25$275.1M+39.6%38.0%5.0%$0.59$-8.8M

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 14 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.9B$1.9B – $1.9B$2.87$2.78 – $3.0013
FY27$2.2B$2.2B – $2.2B$3.24$3.03 – $3.4214
FY28$2.5B$2.3B – $2.7B$4.46$3.73 – $5.0012
FY29$2.9B$2.8B – $3.2B$5.79$4.51 – $8.5911
FY30$3.7B$3.5B – $3.9B$8.28$7.76 – $8.877
FY31$4.4B$4.2B – $4.7B$7.40$6.93 – $7.937

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.5%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-6.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-31.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 37.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.415-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$48KSellAug 14Shackley Brian CharlesSVP, Chief Accounting Officer205 sh$41KSellJul 15Shackley Brian CharlesSVP, Chief Accounting Officer300 sh$43KSellJul 15Stephen F PageDirector248 sh$35KSellJun 15Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$44KSellMay 15Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$41KSellApr 15Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$49KSellMar 16Stephen F PageDirector250 sh$53KSellMar 16Shackley Brian CharlesChief Accounting Officer200 sh$43KSellMar 10Mcdonnell Kevin PatrickCFO396 sh$89K
+ 36 other (19 awards · 11 inkinds · 5 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $AVAV insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 143
AI summary

Michael Ruppert filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed director of AeroVironment Inc., effective August 5, 2026. No securities are beneficially owned at the time of filing. Routine Section 16(a) director disclosure.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 78-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AeroVironment, Inc. disclosed two board changes: Director Charles Thomas Burbage notified the board he will retire and not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting (expected September 24, 2026), citing no disagreement with management. On August 5, 2026, the board expanded from nine to ten members and appointed Michael Ruppert as a new Class II director on the recommendation of the Nominating and Governance Committee. Ruppert's compensation will match standard non-employee director terms. This is routine board succession with no material strategic impact on the defense drone and unmanned systems maker.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 298-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AVAV (AVAV) disclosed an executive/director departure (Item 5.02, filed 2026-07-29). ure of Directors departed from Directors or Certain Officers. Compensation and transition details are in the exhibits. Leadership changes can signal strategic shifts; investors should assess continuity and the appointee's background.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 298-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AeroVironment released financial results for its fiscal year ended approximately April 30, 2026, on June 29, 2026. The available excerpt consists primarily of boilerplate 8-K cover page with no financial figures visible in the text portion. Body unavailable — financial results are contained in the attached Exhibit 99.1 press release, not in the excerpt.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 293
AI summary

William J. Lynn III joined AeroVironment's board of directors effective June 24, 2026, and reports no securities beneficially owned. Routine initial Section 16 director disclosure for this defense-sector drone and unmanned systems manufacturer.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 258-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AeroVironment appointed William J. Lynn III to its Board of Directors as a Class I director, effective June 24, 2026, while simultaneously reducing Board size from 10 to 9 members. Lynn's term expires at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No compensation arrangements or committee assignments were disclosed beyond standard director pay. AeroVironment is a defense drone maker; Lynn is a former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, adding significant defense policy expertise to the board. Administrative governance change.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 24SC 13D/A
AI summary

Arlington Capital Partners (through Altitude V Holdings and Altitude VI Holdings) filed an amended Schedule 13D on AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV), reporting beneficial ownership of 6,728,262 shares (13.5% of class) and 5,307,628 shares (10.6% of class) respectively, as of June 17, 2026. Funds are classified as working capital / affiliated funds. As a Schedule 13D rather than 13G, Arlington Capital reserves the right to seek influence over AVAV, making this an active rather than passive institutional stake in the drone-maker.

8-KEarnings restatementJun 228-K — Item 4.02: Earnings restatement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

AeroVironment's Audit Committee determined on June 17, 2026 that its Q3 FY2026 financial statements (10-Q for the three and nine months ended January 31, 2026, originally filed March 11, 2026) require restatement and should no longer be relied upon. The error: the goodwill impairment analysis for the Space reporting unit used a carrying value that failed to include goodwill allocated from acquired deferred tax assets and liabilities. The triggering event was the previously-disclosed stop-work order and termination-for-convenience of the BADGER phased array antenna/SCAR program. A corrected Form 10-Q/A was filed concurrently — an incremental impairment charge is materially significant.

+ 18 other (6 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 3s) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Berger Montague PC Investigates AeroVironment, Inc.'s Board of Directors for Breach of Fiduciary Duty (AVAV)newsfilecorp.com·20h agoAV to Present at the 2026 Jefferies Global Industrials Conferencebusinesswire.com·5d agoAV Awarded Contract for Three Autonomous Helicopters in Support of NASA's SkyFall Mission to Marsgurufocus.com·5d agoAV Awarded Contract for Three Autonomous Helicopters in Support of NASA's SkyFall Mission to Marsbusinesswire.com·5d agoAeroVironment, Inc. to Announce First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Earnings and Host Conference Callbusinesswire.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & DronesRobotics & Humanoids

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