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TXTXRH

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

$TXRH·$11B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$159.75-1.1%YTD-0.5%1Y-2.0%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 1h ago
TXTXRH
$TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.
$159.75-1.11%46 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $TXRH on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

46X posts · last 7 days
Sep 10Sep 27

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $TXRH — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-09-27

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Texas Roadhouse at the 9th percentile of range on 11% revenue growth — a consumer-restaurant compounder oversold on macro-consumer worries.

Texas Roadhouse is a US-listed casual-dining restaurant chain focused on steaks and family dining. The equity has been sold hard through 2026 despite continued operational execution.

  • The base business is holding: revenue grew 11% YoY last quarter to $1.68B and Q2 hit the same with EPS beating by 1% — a scaled casual-dining franchise running growth-cycle economics with 15% gross margin, 8% operating margin, and 15% ROIC.
  • The valuation is stretched but backed: 34x earnings and 2.26x sales on a business with 28% ROE and a 2.9% FCF yield — priced like a compounder-restaurant despite the operational execution, so any acceleration in comps or beef-cost normalization extends the multiple.
  • The tape confirms the pressure: shares at the 9th percentile of range, -11% vs the 200-day, and -17% vs the 50-day on volume 76% above trend — real distribution flow at the lows.

The Nov 5 print is the arbiter: any raise on 2027 same-store-sales plus commentary on beef-cost normalization restarts the coil out of the drawdown; a soft comp-store number or a hint of consumer trade-down is where the setup fails. This is the casual-dining compounder trade at a distressed multiple that the market has left behind on macro-consumer worries.

What to watch: Nov 5 earnings — 2027 same-store-sales guide, beef-cost normalization commentary, comp-store trajectory, gross-margin trajectory, and any capital-return updates. A same-store-sales raise plus beef-cost normalization restarts the coil; a consumer trade-down signal is the pause trigger.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $TXRH

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Casual dining chain operating 700+ scratch-kitchen Texas Roadhouse restaurants known for hand-cut steaks.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TXRH.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Value-trade-down sustains QSR at casual dining's expense.

What this means for $TXRH

Partial — Casual dining chain operating 700+ scratch-kitchen Texas Roadhouse restaurants known for hand-cut steaks.

Industry benchmark

17-name peer basket
-1.8%YTD
-13.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
34.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
14.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
27.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
15.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$1.85$1.83+1.1%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$1.87$1.80+3.9%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$1.28$1.53-16.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.25$1.28-2.3%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $1.51

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$1.7B+11.1%22.0%8.5%$1.86$81.5M
Q1 FY26$1.6B+12.8%13.1%9.4%$1.87$178.9M
Q4 FY25$1.5B+3.1%10.7%7.1%$1.28$131.3M
Q3 FY25$1.4B+12.8%14.7%6.7%$1.25$14.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 20 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$6.5B$6.5B – $6.6B$6.60$6.51 – $6.8020
FY27$7.1B$7.0B – $7.2B$7.79$7.49 – $8.3420
FY28$7.8B$7.6B – $7.9B$9.28$8.77 – $10.1211
FY29$8.3B$8.2B – $8.4B$9.85$9.66 – $10.025
FY30$9.1B$9.0B – $9.2B$11.06$10.85 – $11.255

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.9%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-17.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-11.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 65.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.795-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 26Marshall Lloyd PaulCHIEF GROWTH OFFICER500 sh$102KSellAug 25Hugh J CarrollDirector650 sh$133KSellAug 21Gerald L. MorganCEO15.0K sh$3.0MSellAug 17Keith HumpichCHIEF ACCT & FIN SVCS OFFCR819 sh$167KSellAug 17Donna E EppsDirector820 sh$169KSellAug 11Gregory N MooreDirector3.0K sh$625KSellJul 2Sean G RenfroeGENERAL COUNSEL426 sh$82KSellMay 26Christopher C. ColsonCHIEF BUSINESS & ADMIN OFFICER499 sh$89KSellMay 18Abell Jane GroteDirector339 sh$60KSellMay 14Marshall Lloyd PaulCHIEF GROWTH OFFICER1.0K sh$178K
1–10 of 12
+ 8 other (3 gifts · 3 exempts · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $TXRH insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMay 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 10 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD) Head-To-Head Contrastdefenseworld.net·4d agoCAVA vs. Texas Roadhouse: Which Restaurant Stock Has the Edge?zacks.com·5d agoDespite Record Sales, Texas Roadhouse Has Beef With Beef Costsmarketbeat.com·6d agoTexas Roadhouse: The Sirloin Effectseekingalpha.com·11d agoBreakfast News: Why Merck Should Buy Modernafool.com·12d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $TXRH on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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