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SBSBUX

Starbucks Corporation

$SBUX·$108B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$95.27+0.4%YTD+13.1%1Y+11.2%
Price updated 11h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
SBSBUX
$SBUXStarbucks Corporation
$95.27+0.43%453 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $SBUX on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

453X posts · last 7 days
Sep 11Sep 27
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $SBUX's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Mixed sentiment⚠AI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-28 · top-engagement diverged

Starbucks announced ANOTHER 250 North America store closures on top of 627 last September. Bulls counter with accelerating comparable sales and raised guidance and brand-strength/loyalty-scale arguments, questioning whether the price already assumes the recovery. Skeptics dominate the top slot; the DCF discussion runs longer.

Read what X is saying about $SBUX

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $SBUX — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-28

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Starbucks is in the middle of a Niccol-led turnaround — closing hundreds of stores, betting on matcha and speed, and X thinks the trade still works.

Starbucks is running the Brian Niccol turnaround — closing 250+ underperforming US cafes including iconic Los Angeles locations, tightening the menu around matcha and speed-of-service, and trying to prove the growth reset actually shows up in the numbers. It's up 13% year-to-date, well behind the S&P but well ahead of the QSR peer group.

  • The earnings mechanic is working: last quarter EPS printed $0.85 vs $0.66 estimated — a 29% beat — and analysts see EPS moving from ~$2.61 this fiscal year to $4.88 by 2030 as the turnaround compounds.
  • The valuation is where the case gets harder: 78x trailing PE on a business with 9% operating margin and 8% ROIC — buyers are paying for a turnaround that has to still deliver, not for the current run rate.
  • The insider tape is measured: CEO Niccol did $5.6M in-kind vesting (tax, not a directional sale) and CFO Brewer sold $235K — nothing signaling imminent conviction change.

October 28 earnings and any color on same-store sales cadence plus store-closure margin impact decides the next leg — a re-affirmed FY guide with positive US same-store trend restarts the tape; a soft China number or a store-closure charge that surprises higher is what turns the current cooling into a real digestion.

Agrees with X sentimentAgrees with the Iced-Matcha-Latte-summer thesis frame — the matcha traction is real and the Costco/Procter/Walmart bought-this-morning basket puts SBUX in defensive-consumer company — but the store closures the crowd doesn't foreground are a real drag on the same-store number for the next two quarters.

What to watch: October 28 earnings — US same-store sales cadence, store-closure margin impact, and China trajectory; a re-affirmed FY guide with positive US comps restarts the tape, a soft China or store-closure charge surprise turns cooling into digestion.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $SBUX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Global coffee chain operating company-owned and licensed retail locations selling beverages, food, and packaged goods under the Starbucks brand.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SBUX.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Value-trade-down sustains QSR at casual dining's expense.

What this means for $SBUX

Neutral — Global coffee chain operating company-owned and licensed retail locations selling beverages, food, and packaged goods under the Starbucks brand.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-1.6%YTD
-14.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
78.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
9.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-18.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
20.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-2.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.85$0.66+28.8%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$0.50$0.43+17.6%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$0.56$0.59-4.4%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.52$0.56-6.5%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $0.72

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$9.5B+8.8%20.1%8.2%$0.45$91.8M
Q1 FY26$9.9B+5.4%15.6%9.2%$0.26$1.3B
Q4 FY25$9.6B+5.5%23.1%9.9%$0.12$925.8M
Q3 FY25$9.5B+3.8%22.8%9.9%$0.49$434.3M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$38.0B$37.6B – $38.2B$2.61$2.45 – $2.6824
FY27$38.6B$36.5B – $41.8B$3.16$2.95 – $3.4424
FY28$40.6B$39.2B – $41.8B$3.76$3.18 – $4.5624
FY29$43.5B$42.1B – $44.9B$4.43$4.25 – $4.6112
FY30$45.9B$44.5B – $47.4B$4.88$4.68 – $5.0823

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.53%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-7.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-3.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.965-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 4Brady BrewerCEO2.2K sh$235KSellAug 5Brady BrewerCEO2.2K sh$236KSellJul 6Brady BrewerCEO2.2K sh$232KSellJun 11Brady BrewerCEO588 sh$59KSellJun 5Brady BrewerCEO1.6K sh$155KSellMay 5Brady BrewerCEO2.2K sh$234KSellApr 29Sara Kellyevp, chief partner officer2.0K sh$210KSellApr 17Brady BrewerCEO588 sh$59KSellApr 6Brady BrewerCEO1.6K sh$148K
+ 3 other (3 inkinds) in window

See when $SBUX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KRestructuring / exit costsSep 248-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
3New insider — initial holdingsJun 183
AI summary

Val Bauduin filed a Form 3 for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) on June 18, 2026, following his June 11, 2026 designation as Principal Accounting Officer. Bauduin, SVP Corporate Finance and Development, directly owns 15,310.303 shares of SBUX common stock. He previously served as interim CFO in March 2025 and held controller/CAO roles at Marriott International from 2014 to 2024. Routine officer Form 3 filing — no material change to SBUX's share count or ownership structure.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Starbucks (SBUX) filed an 8-K on June 12, 2026 announcing that Val Bauduin, 50, was designated as Principal Accounting Officer effective June 11, 2026. Bauduin continues as SVP Corporate Finance and Development, reporting to CFO Cathy Smith, who remains Principal Financial Officer. Bauduin previously served as interim CFO in March 2025 and held controller/CAO roles at Marriott International from 2014 to 2024. Internal reshuffle of accounting-officer responsibility — not a CFO change; administratively relevant for SEC certification purposes.

8-KRestructuring / exit costsMay 158-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs
AI summary

Starbucks' Board approved a new restructuring plan on May 13, 2026 under its 'Back to Starbucks' strategy, targeting ~$400M in total charges — approximately $280M non-cash (impairment of long-lived assets including right-of-use leases tied to Reserve and Roastery locations) and ~$120M cash (employee separation costs). Most actions are expected to complete by fiscal year-end 2026. Material given scope and execution risk; part of a previously announced $2B cost-savings initiative.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 28-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 10 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Starbucks' ‘widely recyclable' plastic cups end up in landfills, incinerators: nonprofitnypost.com·17h agoStarbucks Closed Over 200 Stores This Week—Is Your Favorite on the List?investopedia.com·18h agoStarbucks store closures: See a list of locations that have shuttered across the country in latest coffeehouse cullfastcompany.com·19h agoBrewing Trouble? Starbucks Spills the Beans on 250 Store Closuresmarketbeat.com·19h agoMcDonald's vs. Starbucks: Which Restaurant Stock Has an Edge Now?zacks.com·21h ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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