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MCMCD

McDonald's Corporation

$MCD·$195B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$263.54-0.6%YTD-12.1%1Y-16.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 56 posts2026-08-22: 18 posts419+4%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
MCMCD
$MCDMcDonald's Corporation
$263.54-0.55%419 posts+4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MCD, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The compounder is having its second-worst drawdown of the last 20 years — the tape is telling.

McDonald's is the largest global QSR chain and one of the market's most reliable long-term compounders — which is exactly why a 23.6% drawdown from all-time highs stands out as a real narrative break, not a normal cyclical dip.

  • The base business is still large and profitable: quarterly revenue ran $6.84B / $7.08B / $7.01B / $6.52B, gross margin above 57%, with quarterly EPS at $3.15 / $3.20 / $3.03 / $2.79 — analysts model $28.4B and $12.91 EPS for the full year, so at $265 the stock trades at roughly 21x forward, still a premium multiple for a franchise business.
  • Competitive positioning is the specific worry: Burger King reported +8.5% US same-store sales while MCD is trailing the QSR industry by 9 points — that's a real share-loss gap, and the discretionary-sector rotation the tape crowd is calling means MCD no longer gets the automatic 'defensive' bid it did through the last two years.
  • The management set is transitional: a fresh officer departure (via 8-K) and a new President of McDonald's USA filing an initial Form 3 in mid-August put a new operating-leadership stack into place at exactly the moment US comps softened — that's a lot of change to run into a print.

A Nov 4 print that shows US comps stabilizing near sector average and value-menu-driven traffic growth is what would defend the multiple; another quarter of soft US comps and lost share to BK/Wendy's is what turns 'breaking-down' into a real multiple reset toward the low-$240s.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bearish framing tracks the mechanics — the 23.6% drawdown and the 9-point industry-comp underperformance vs Burger King's +8.5% are real, and the discretionary-rotation-is-over point is honest; the technical bulls' MACD-curl argument is a chart worry, not a fundamentals defense.

What to watch: The Nov 4 Q3 print — US same-store sales, value-menu-driven traffic, and any commentary on McDonald's-USA leadership priorities. A soft US comp with continued BK/Wendy's share-take is what confirms the reset.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment75 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

McDonald's threads read as a slow-motion argument between value hunters and technicians. Bears keep repeating that this is the second-worst drawdown in 20 years, roughly 23.6% off the highs, with US traffic down about 4.5% in Q2 and the stock stuck below its 200-week EMA. Bulls counter that the business is fine, the forward P/E of about 20x is below the historical average, and DCF work still points meaningfully higher. Most posts frame it as a base-forming waiting game rather than a conviction call in either direction.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MCD

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Franchises fast-food restaurants globally, earning royalties and rent from operators with a capital-light model.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MCD.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

Consumer restaurant spending is softening at the low end (fast food) as value perception erodes; premium casual is holding up better. Labor cost inflation and menu price moderation are the twin margin pressures for the category.

What this means for $MCD

Partial — REIT cash flows tied to occupancy, rent growth, and cap rate environment; McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldw.

Industry benchmark

21-name peer basket
+23.0%YTD
+9.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
22.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
17.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
46.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-434%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
57.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-42.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$3.38$3.32+1.8%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$2.83$2.74+3.3%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$3.12$3.05+2.3%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$3.22$3.33-3.3%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $3.39

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.5B+9.4%55.9%44.3%$2.79$1.7B
Q4 FY25$7.0B+9.7%57.5%45.0%$3.03$1.6B
Q3 FY25$7.1B+3.0%58.0%47.4%$3.20$2.4B
Q2 FY25$6.8B+5.4%57.9%47.2%$3.15$1.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$28.4B$27.9B – $28.6B$12.91$12.67 – $13.1124
FY27$30.0B$29.4B – $30.7B$14.07$13.82 – $14.3625
FY28$31.4B$30.4B – $32.3B$15.05$14.20 – $15.6216
FY29$32.7B$31.8B – $33.4B$16.59$15.99 – $17.0315
FY30$33.9B$33.0B – $34.6B$17.40$16.78 – $17.8615

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.6%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-10.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 709.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 10Joseph M. ErlingerPresident5.3K sh$1.5MSellMay 28Desiree Ralls-morrisonEVP, Chief Legal Officer2.8K sh$769KSellMay 26Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$93KSellApr 23Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$101KSellApr 10Joseph M. ErlingerPresident2.6K sh$806KSellMar 23Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$104KSellMar 18Dario BaroniPresident600 sh$194KSellMar 10Joseph M. ErlingerPresident2.6K sh$862K
+ 11 other (6 awards · 4 exempts · 1 inkind) in window

See when $MCD insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 143
AI summary

Skye Anderson, newly appointed President of McDonald's USA, filed an initial Form 3 on August 14, 2026 (event date August 4, 2026), disclosing direct ownership of 1,072.72 shares of MCD common stock plus stock options to purchase 10,205 shares at $216.15 (expiring February 2030) and 14,802 shares at $215.03 (expiring February 2031). These are routine compensation-related holdings for a senior leadership appointment. Standard Section 16(a) initial disclosure; no market impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 48-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

MCD announced a leadership Departure involving Certain Officers, who serves as Director. compensation. Item 5.02 mandates timely disclosure of executive and director transitions, which can significantly affect MCD's strategic direction and investor confidence.

8-KShareholder voteMay 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MCD (MCD) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor, shareholder proposals. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-K/AOfficer or director change (amended)Apr 28-K/A — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MCD disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-02). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 15 other (6 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

If You'd Invested $1,000 in McDonald's 25 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Todayfool.com·2d agoMcDonald’s Corporation $MCD Shares Sold by BNP Paribasdefenseworld.net·3d agoWendy's Climbs 4%, McDonald's Ticks Up: Is Short Interest Setting Up a Squeeze in the Burger Trade?247wallst.com·4d agoMcDonald's Stock Bounces Off Two-Year Low: What's Going On?benzinga.com·4d agoMcDonald's vs. Domino's: Which Stock Has Better Growth Prospects?zacks.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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