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MCMCD

McDonald's Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 9% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (1.9K/wk), no spike
$MCD·$195B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$272.70-0.3%YTD-10.4%1Y-8.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 331 posts2026-07-10: 348 posts2026-07-11: 136 posts2026-07-12: 275 posts2026-07-13: 327 posts2026-07-14: 158 posts2026-07-15: 258 posts1,861-4%
Price updated 13m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
MCMCD
$MCDMcDonald's Corporation
$272.70-0.28%1.9k posts-4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MCD, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

The world's most reliable defensive compounder — coiled at 12% of its range going into earnings.

McDonald's is the largest global quick-service restaurant chain — a franchise-heavy real-estate business that earns nearly half of every dollar of operating income. The stock is at 12% of its 52-week range going into Aug 4 earnings, and the coiled setup is what makes it interesting.

Why the picture reads:

  • Fundamentals are elite for the category: 46% operating margin, 17% return on invested capital, and 3.5% free cash flow yield — meaning the franchise-and-real-estate mix earns per-store economics that no scaled competitor can replicate.
  • The multiple has actually reset: 23x TTM P/E is close to the long-run average for MCD, meaning the value-cyclical trade that pushed it to premium multiples last year has fully unwound.
  • The tape is coiled: sitting essentially flat against the 50-day, 10% below the 200-day, at only 12% of the 52-week range, with volume at average — that's a stock waiting for a specific catalyst, not distributing.
  • The macro backdrop is the check: low-income consumer weakness (the same signal Walmart is flagging with price cuts) hits MCD's US comps first, which is why the specific same-store-sales print is what decides the direction.

Aug 4 earnings is the trigger. US same-store-sales stabilizing above zero plus international showing continued momentum restarts the compounder trade; a US comps miss with international slippage confirms the consumer-weakness discount and the range breaks lower.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish defensive-compounder framing on the 200-week MA setup and the pre-$100 long-hold conviction, and the fundamentals genuinely support the quality read. The specific risk the corpus isn't sizing is US same-store-sales sensitivity to the low-income consumer squeeze — the same signal Walmart is naming with price cuts.

What to watch: The Aug 4 print — US same-store-sales, international segment growth, and any commentary on value-menu traction. Above-zero US comps plus international momentum restarts the compounder; a US comps miss with international slip extends the coiling into a range break.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

McDonald's chatter is bullish defensive-compounder. MCD trades around $276 after a recent 52-week low of $264.53 in late June. Community frames MCD as resilient dividend-paying giant. Traders publish day-trade ideas with $277.58 entry and 200-week MA setup. Community members have been buying MCD since pre-$100 - genuine long-term conviction. Traders eye TMUS + MCD at 200-week MA as buy setups. Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MCD

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Franchises fast-food restaurants globally, earning royalties and rent from operators with a capital-light model.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MCD.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Food input cost inflation is the margin headwind across the sector; Cracker Barrel's turnaround narrative and CAVA's Mediterranean expansion are the two..

What this means for $MCD

Direct beneficiary — Franchises fast-food restaurants globally, earning royalties and rent from operators with a capital-light model; core operations sit in the path of the food input cost inflation and pricing power margin management.

Industry benchmark

17-name peer basket
+9.1%YTD
-15.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
22.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
17.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
46.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-434%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
57.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-42.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$2.83$2.74+3.3%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$3.12$3.05+2.3%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$3.22$3.33-3.3%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$3.19$3.14+1.6%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $3.33

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.5B+9.4%55.9%44.3%$2.79$1.7B
Q4 FY25$7.0B+9.7%57.5%45.0%$3.03$1.6B
Q3 FY25$7.1B+3.0%58.0%47.4%$3.20$2.4B
Q2 FY25$6.8B+5.4%57.9%47.2%$3.15$1.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$28.5B$27.9B – $28.7B$12.97$12.63 – $13.1124
FY27$30.1B$29.4B – $30.8B$14.18$13.92 – $14.3824
FY28$31.6B$31.5B – $31.6B$15.24$14.40 – $15.8414
FY29$32.7B$31.8B – $33.4B$16.59$15.98 – $17.079
FY30$33.9B$32.9B – $34.7B$17.40$16.76 – $17.9013

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.12%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-9.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 709.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.425-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 10Joseph M. ErlingerPresident5.3K sh$1.5MSellMay 28Desiree Ralls-morrisonEVP, Chief Legal Officer2.8K sh$769KSellMay 26Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$93KSellApr 23Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$101KSellApr 10Joseph M. ErlingerPresident2.6K sh$806KSellMar 23Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$104KSellMar 18Dario BaroniPresident600 sh$194KSellMar 10Joseph M. ErlingerPresident2.6K sh$862KSellFeb 23Jonathan BannerEVP - Chief Impact Officer6.2K sh$2.1MSellFeb 23Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$110K
1–10 of 11
+ 27 other (11 awards · 10 exempts · 5 inkinds · 1 discretionary) in window

See when $MCD insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMay 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MCD (MCD) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor, shareholder proposals. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-K/AOfficer or director change (amended)Apr 28-K/A — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MCD disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-02). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3New insider — initial holdingsFeb 173
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 14 other (5 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Starbucks vs. McDonald's: Which Restaurant Stock Has the Edge Now?zacks.com·1d agoCan McDonald's Global Marketing Strategy Drive Customer Traffic?zacks.com·1d agoIs Trending Stock McDonald's Corporation (MCD) a Buy Now?zacks.com·1d agoThe Smartest Dividend Stocks to Buy With $1,000 in July and Never Sellfool.com·1d ago3 Stocks to Own When the Market Gets Ugly in July247wallst.com·1d ago

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Voices on X · top 10 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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