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MCMCD

McDonald's Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 9% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (1.5K/wk), no spike
$MCD·$167B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$242.97+0.2%YTD-22.8%1Y-20.4%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
MCMCD
$MCDMcDonald's Corporation
$242.97+0.19%1.5k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $MCD on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,490X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $MCD's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bearish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data25 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

Sentiment is bearish — McDonald's is down 22% YTD on pace for its worst year since 2002, trading below the 200-week MA by the widest margin since the Dot Com bust, with the "US consumer is cooked" meme carrying the thread. The bull camp leans entirely on valuation (19x against 17x at the 2020 flash crash, 3.3% yield, 45,000+ stores) rather than any catalyst. Even the dip-buyers sound like they're waiting rather than acting.

Read what X is saying about $MCD

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MCD — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

The classic defensive compounder at a 2% percentile of its range — oversold, but 'oversold' isn't the same as 'done going down.'

McDonald's is a 45,000-store global quick-service franchise whose stock is having its worst year since 2002. The business economics haven't broken — it still earns at a 44% operating margin — but same-store traffic hasn't recovered and the market is tired of waiting.

  • The P&L is still exceptional: last quarter revenue grew 9.4% YoY at a 44% operating margin with $2.79 EPS — these are not the numbers of a broken franchise, they're the numbers of one with a traffic problem the market is now pricing as structural.
  • The chart is where the opportunity lives: sitting at 2% of its 52-week range, 20% below the 200-day, and trading at 19x against the sector's 17x at the 2020 crash — the margin of safety is real, but it's being tested daily by one more 'US consumer is cooked' headline.

Nov 4 earnings is the one event that can turn this: US same-store sales reverting back toward positive, plus any traction from the hand-breaded chicken test, is what restarts the move. Another flat-to-negative US comp confirms the de-rating and sends the stock through the 2% low.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bearish read on traffic and the broader consumer is honest and matches the chart. The one disagreement is on interpretation — I think a 44% operating margin at 19x in a cyclical trough is where turnarounds usually get built from, not where they keep breaking.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 earnings — US same-store sales (needs to be positive), international ex-China comp, and any dollar-menu or chicken-tenders traction update. A negative US comp plus flat international is where the floor gives way.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dcyclical low

Read the AI verdict on $MCD

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Franchises fast-food restaurants globally, earning royalties and rent from operators with a capital-light model.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MCD.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Value-trade-down sustains QSR at casual dining's expense.

What this means for $MCD

Neutral — Franchises fast-food restaurants globally, earning royalties and rent from operators with a capital-light model.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
+8.0%YTD
-3.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
22.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
17.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
46.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-434%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
57.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-42.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$3.38$3.32+1.8%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$2.83$2.74+3.3%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$3.12$3.05+2.3%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$3.22$3.33-3.3%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $3.38

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.5B+9.4%55.9%44.3%$2.79$1.7B
Q4 FY25$7.0B+9.7%57.5%45.0%$3.03$1.6B
Q3 FY25$7.1B+3.0%58.0%47.4%$3.20$2.4B
Q2 FY25$6.8B+5.4%57.9%47.2%$3.15$1.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$28.2B$28.0B – $28.4B$12.89$12.70 – $13.0324
FY27$29.0B$27.6B – $30.3B$13.79$12.95 – $14.2624
FY28$28.5B$24.2B – $32.0B$14.48$12.46 – $15.2920
FY29$27.8B$26.0B – $29.1B$15.15$13.86 – $16.0510
FY30$29.3B$27.4B – $30.7B$16.65$15.22 – $17.6310

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.12%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-15.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 707.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.455-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 10Joseph M. ErlingerPresident5.3K sh$1.5MSellMay 28Desiree Ralls-morrisonEVP, Chief Legal Officer2.8K sh$769KSellMay 26Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$93KSellApr 23Joseph M. ErlingerPresident333 sh$101K
+ 9 other (6 awards · 2 exempts · 1 inkind) in window

See when $MCD insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDSep 238-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) disclosed new quantified targets under its McDonald's > NEXT strategy via an investor release issued September 23, 2026, focused on category share gains, increased restaurant efficiency, and expanded operating margin. The filing furnishes the detailed investor release as Exhibit 99.1. This is a material strategic update — formal growth targets set at the investor level — that could recalibrate analyst consensus if targets diverge from current expectations.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 143
AI summary

Skye Anderson, newly appointed President of McDonald's USA, filed an initial Form 3 on August 14, 2026 (event date August 4, 2026), disclosing direct ownership of 1,072.72 shares of MCD common stock plus stock options to purchase 10,205 shares at $216.15 (expiring February 2030) and 14,802 shares at $215.03 (expiring February 2031). These are routine compensation-related holdings for a senior leadership appointment. Standard Section 16(a) initial disclosure; no market impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 48-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

MCD announced a leadership Departure involving Certain Officers, who serves as Director. compensation. Item 5.02 mandates timely disclosure of executive and director transitions, which can significantly affect MCD's strategic direction and investor confidence.

8-KShareholder voteMay 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MCD (MCD) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor, shareholder proposals. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

+ 11 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·18h agoMcDonald’s Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NYSE:MCD)defenseworld.net·1d agoThese Consumer Stocks Are Getting a Lift as Investors Rotate Out of Techinvestopedia.com·1d agoMcDonald’s Corporation $MCD Shares Purchased by First Citizens Bank & Trust Co.defenseworld.net·2d agoMcDonald's (MCD) Increases Despite Market Slip: Here's What You Need to Knowzacks.com·2d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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