TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$CMG
CMCMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

$CMG·$45B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$34.64-4.9%YTD-7.0%1Y-35.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 135 posts2026-07-09: 185 posts2026-07-10: 267 posts2026-07-11: 88 posts2026-07-12: 171 posts2026-07-13: 320 posts2026-07-14: 149 posts1,329+31%
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
CMCMG
$CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$34.64-4.91%1.3k posts+31%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CMG, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Chipotle is opening its first restaurant in Mexico and finally quiet on the tape — a compounder at the cheapest multiple in years.

Chipotle Mexican Grill runs roughly 3,000 fast-casual restaurants and is opening its first location in Mexico as the international-expansion story takes a symbolic step forward. The stock is down 34% over the past year on soft same-store sales and consumer-spending caution, and now trades at the cheapest multiple in years while the tape coils above the 200-day.

Where the mechanics actually land:

  • Growth is decelerating but not broken: Q1 revenue grew 7.4% year-on-year to $3.09B on 68% gross margin and 13% operating margin — the last four EPS beats averaged 3% above consensus, so consensus has re-set enough that the business is still delivering versus expectations.
  • Free cash flow is genuinely strong: Q1 delivered $471M FCF against a $45B market cap, and the FY26 EPS consensus of $1.13 growing to $1.36 in FY27 implies durable double-digit compounding even in a softer consumer environment.
  • The Mexico opening (July 13) is more symbolic than material to the near-term P&L, but it re-frames CMG's growth story as international expansion rather than pure US same-store — that's the narrative that supports the multiple through a consumer trough.
  • The chart is technically constructive: shares at 30th percentile of the 52-week range but 12% above the 50-day and 3% above the 200-day — the tape has crossed above the 200-day and at least one holder is trailing stops higher, so this coil is loading energy in a bullish direction.

The July 29 earnings is the coil-release event — a beat with same-store sales stabilizing plus international commentary that names the FY27 expansion path is what breaks the range higher, while another quarter of decelerating US traffic combined with a hedged margin commentary is what would extend the coiling into a fresh re-test of the 200-day.

Agrees with X sentimentX's constructive read of the daily 200-day cross and the 'let it ride' framing is genuinely supported by the 30th-percentile 52-week position combined with the 3% cushion above the 200-day. The Mexico opening plus continued 7% revenue growth validate the coiling-not-broken setup the crowd is describing.

What to watch: The July 29 Q2 print — US same-store sales, traffic vs. price mix, and international expansion timeline. Stabilizing same-store sales plus a named FY27 international expansion path breaks the coil higher; another quarter of decelerating US traffic sends the stock back to the 200-day for another test.

On the calendar: 2026-07-29 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-14

Chipotle chatter is limited but constructive: the shares crossing above the daily 200 moving average has prompted at least one 'let it ride' stop being inched up, and a failed weekly breakout of consolidation still shows bullish divergence on the weekly. Community anecdotes about missing the nearest Chipotle location and personal 'saving for the dip' quips round out the light-hearted, generally supportive tone.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CMG

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates fast-casual Mexican restaurants with digital ordering and loyalty platform, expanding internationally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CMG.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Food input cost inflation is the margin headwind across the sector; Cracker Barrel's turnaround narrative and CAVA's Mediterranean expansion are the two..

What this means for $CMG

Partial — Operates fast-casual Mexican restaurants with digital ordering and loyalty platform, expanding internationally; the food input cost inflation and pricing power margin management is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Industry benchmark

17-name peer basket
+7.6%YTD
-14.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
26.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
18.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
15.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
48.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
36.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$0.24$0.24+1.1%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.25$0.24+5.0%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.29$0.29+1.5%
Q2 2025Jul 23, 2025$0.33$0.33+1.2%
Next earningsWed, Jul 29·consensus EPS $0.32

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.1B+7.4%68.4%12.9%$0.23$471.0M
Q4 FY25$3.0B+4.9%23.4%14.9%$0.25$228.4M
Q3 FY25$3.0B+7.5%24.5%16.6%$0.29$406.2M
Q2 FY25$3.1B+3.0%27.4%18.8%$0.32$400.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 26 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$13.0B$12.8B – $13.1B$1.14$1.07 – $1.2126
FY27$14.4B$14.2B – $14.6B$1.36$1.29 – $1.4726
FY28$15.9B$15.9B – $15.9B$1.59$1.52 – $1.6913
FY29$18.1B$17.8B – $18.5B$1.99$1.95 – $2.0512
FY30$19.5B$19.2B – $19.9B$2.21$2.16 – $2.266

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.24%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-2.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.3B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.965-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellFeb 24Patricia FilikrushelDirector3.4K sh$123KSellFeb 6Curtis E GarnerPres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off61.1K sh$2.4M
+ 33 other (21 awards · 10 inkinds · 1 gift · 1 exempt) in window

See when $CMG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 178-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) reported results of its June 11, 2026 annual shareholder meeting (Item 5.07). Standard vote items include election of directors, ratification of the independent auditor, and advisory say-on-pay; specific tallies are in the exhibit not included in the excerpt. No officer changes or capital transactions are indicated. This is a routine governance filing with no material strategic or financial impact expected for a large-cap restaurant operator.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 23
AI summary

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) — new insider Lauren Assaf-Holmes filed an initial Form 3 reporting no securities beneficially owned. Routine insider ownership disclosure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 278-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CMG filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-27. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

+ 12 other (4 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 routine 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Sweetgreen, Chipotle And More Stocks Fall During Cyclospora Outbreakforbes.com·14h agoChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·21h agoChipotle's Bold Bet on Mexicoyoutube.com·2d agoChipotle CEO on Restaurant's Expansion Into Mexicoyoutube.com·2d agoWhy Chipotle Stock Topped the Market Todayfool.com·3d ago

More in Restaurants

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$WEN$SBUX$MCD$YUM$DPZ$DRI$CAKE$CAVA
Voices on X · top 2 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport