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CMCMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

$CMG·$42B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$38.02-0.0%YTD-9.2%1Y-8.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 9 posts2026-08-23: 26 posts190-5%
Price updated 12h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
CMCMG
$CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$38.02-0.03%190 posts-5%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CMG, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-09-01

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Chipotle is stuck in a growth-decel mid-cycle — the salmonella scare passed but the same-store growth needs to reaccelerate.

Chipotle Mexican Grill runs the leading fast-casual restaurant chain with a differentiated fresh-preparation model and a real digital-order infrastructure. The stock is stuck at ~9% below prior-year levels as same-store growth decelerated and a Baird downgrade to Hold at $40 landed.

  • Growth has decelerated: last four quarters printed 3-7% YoY revenue growth at operating margin 13-19% — the compounder pace slowed materially from prior 15%+ growth, and analyst FY26 EPS of $1.15 reflects that reset.
  • The EPS beats have been modest (0.6-4.9%) — a durable but unspectacular pattern that isn't earning the multiple re-rate the growth story previously did.
  • Position sits at the 68th percentile of the 52-week range on volume 94% of normal — the tape has been consolidating around a $38 base rather than trending, which is a stalled-not-broken shape.
  • Insider signal is neutral: multiple officer F-InKind vesting events at $35 in late August ($4M+ combined) — these are tax-withholding events not open-market conviction sales, so directionally neutral.

The path forward is decided by the Nov 4 Q3 print — same-store sales growth (needs to hit 3%+), traffic vs check mix, and any color on Pollo Asado adoption and international expansion. A same-store growth reacceleration plus new-menu traction restarts the compounder; another mid-single-digit revenue print without traffic recovery confirms the stall.

Agrees with X sentimentAligned with the mixed thread — Baird downgrade to Hold at $40 target, lingering 'jalapeños salmonella fears', and the aggressive-promotion counter-trend (free double protein, BOGO) all check out. The Cardi B chip flavor buzz is fluff; the international-growth compounder framing is the longer-term bull case.

What to watch: The Nov 4 Q3 print — same-store sales growth (needs to hit 3%+), traffic vs check-mix contribution, Pollo Asado adoption trajectory, and international expansion color. Another mid-single-digit revenue print without traffic recovery confirms the stall; a reacceleration plus new-menu traction restarts the compounder.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment13 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Views are mixed. Bears point to a Baird downgrade to Hold with a $40 target and lingering "jalapeños salmonella fears," while bulls note the sharp bounce back, aggressive promotions like free double protein and BOGO, and a Cardi B "accidentally leaked" chip flavor generating buzz. Longer-term posters lump Chipotle with Wingstop as digital-native names they'd buy on dips for international growth.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CMG

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates fast-casual Mexican restaurants with digital ordering and loyalty platform, expanding internationally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CMG.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

Consumer restaurant spending is softening at the low end (fast food) as value perception erodes; premium casual is holding up better. Labor cost inflation and menu price moderation are the twin margin pressures for the category.

What this means for $CMG

Partial — semiconductor exposure exists but product mix may not fully align with the AI capex driver; Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Industry benchmark

21-name peer basket
+22.9%YTD
+8.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
26.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
18.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
15.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
48.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
36.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.33$0.32+3.5%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$0.24$0.24+1.1%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.25$0.24+5.0%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.29$0.29+1.5%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $0.29

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.1B+7.4%68.4%12.9%$0.23$471.0M
Q4 FY25$3.0B+4.9%23.4%14.9%$0.25$228.4M
Q3 FY25$3.0B+7.5%24.5%16.6%$0.29$406.2M
Q2 FY25$3.1B+3.0%27.4%18.8%$0.32$400.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$13.0B$12.8B – $13.1B$1.15$1.09 – $1.2224
FY27$14.4B$14.2B – $14.6B$1.37$1.30 – $1.4825
FY28$15.9B$15.3B – $16.9B$1.58$1.54 – $1.6513
FY29$18.2B$17.9B – $18.7B$1.99$1.94 – $2.0612
FY30$19.5B$19.1B – $20.1B$2.20$2.14 – $2.286

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.68%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+10.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.3B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.945-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 21Matthew R BushController, PAO2.7K sh$96K
+ 16 other (10 awards · 5 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $CMG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 58-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CMG made a Regulation FD disclosure to provide material information simultaneously to all market participants. The disclosure relates to did not include a financial impact from these matters. Reg FD prevents selective disclosure of material non-public information; investor presentations and press releases are commonly furnished under Item 7.01 for fair access by all CMG investors.

8-KShareholder voteJun 178-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) reported results of its June 11, 2026 annual shareholder meeting (Item 5.07). Standard vote items include election of directors, ratification of the independent auditor, and advisory say-on-pay; specific tallies are in the exhibit not included in the excerpt. No officer changes or capital transactions are indicated. This is a routine governance filing with no material strategic or financial impact expected for a large-cap restaurant operator.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 23
AI summary

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) — new insider Lauren Assaf-Holmes filed an initial Form 3 reporting no securities beneficially owned. Routine insider ownership disclosure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 278-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CMG filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-27. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

+ 14 other (6 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 1 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

CHIPOTLE MARKS A BRAND FIRST WITH ALL-NEW POLLO ASADO AND THE DEBUT OF CHILI LIME CHIPSgurufocus.com·1d agoCHIPOTLE MARKS A BRAND FIRST WITH ALL-NEW POLLO ASADO AND THE DEBUT OF CHILI LIME CHIPSprnewswire.com·1d agoBeacon Pointe Advisors LLC Buys New Shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. $CMGdefenseworld.net·2d agoDomino's Pizza Rallies 5%, Chipotle Edges Higher: Does a Low P/E Signal Value After a 19% YTD Drop?247wallst.com·4d agoWhy Is Chipotle (CMG) Down 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report?zacks.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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