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CACAKE

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

$CAKE·$5.0B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$101.42+0.1%YTD+100.1%1Y+58.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-25: 20 posts2026-07-26: 33 posts2026-07-27: 73 posts2026-07-28: 123 posts2026-07-29: 136 posts2026-07-30: 72 posts2026-07-31: 82 posts543+12%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 3d ago
CACAKE
$CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
$101.42+0.11%543 posts+12%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CAKE, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-01

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Restaurant chain up 100% YTD, first $1B quarter, EPS +25% — insiders selling into ATH is the caution flag against a real breakout.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated runs 306 restaurants across US/Canada — the flagship Cheesecake Factory brand plus North Italia and Fox Restaurant Concepts — and just posted its first $1 billion quarter. The stock is up 100% YTD and sits at 97% of the 52-week range, but the insider-selling into ATH complicates the pure-momentum read.

Why the setup works:

  • The Q2 print was a genuine breakout: revenue $1.03B (+8% YoY, first $1B quarter), EPS $1.44 vs $1.18 consensus (+22% surprise) — makes four straight beats, with the beat magnitude growing (13% → 2% → 2% → 22%).
  • The margin story is real: net income +25% on 8% revenue growth is expense-discipline flowing through — the operating-leverage the market wanted is here.
  • The valuation is not stretched given the acceleration: 21x trailing PE, 1.0x sales, and a 4.6% FCF yield for a business now compounding EBITDA at 20%+ is reasonable for a mid-cap restaurant franchise.
  • The FY26 net-income margin was quietly revised up from 5.0% to 5.4% (via an 8-K/A correction on July 29) — small but confirmatory of the improved trajectory.
  • The insider signal is the caution flag: CFO Matt Clark sold $6.8M at $99.30 on July 30 (after exercising options at $40.16 for $5.5M), plus a smaller Ashley Hanscom $350K sale — cluster of officer selling right into the ATH tape.
  • The new store opening (Collection at Forsyth) continues the modest expansion pace.

What would invalidate the accelerating setup: a soft Q3 same-restaurant sales print, a food-cost inflation surprise that compresses the newly-earned margin, or more officer selling. Next earnings is Oct 27 — the tape trades on monthly OpenTable data, consumer-spending headlines, and any labor-cost commentary until then. The 'boring restaurants outperforming AI infrastructure' meme framing is fun but the underlying data is the real story.

Agrees with X sentimentX's 'quiet winner' framing tracks the fundamentals — first $1B quarter with EPS +25% on 8% revenue growth is exactly what an expense-discipline-driven breakout looks like. The SBUX upside call attached to CAKE's outperformance is fair (both are consumer-turnaround stories). The one thing the celebratory X tape doesn't weight is the CFO Matt Clark $6.8M sale into the ATH the same day the +22% surprise printed — that's a real signal alongside the fundamentals.

What to watch: Q3 earnings Oct 27 — what would invalidate the accelerating setup: a soft Q3 same-restaurant sales print, a food-cost inflation surprise compressing the newly-earned margin, or more CFO/officer selling. What extends the run is another 8%+ revenue quarter with continued margin expansion and a same-restaurant number that stays positive.

On the calendar: 2026-10-27 — Q3 2026 earnings

restaurant turnaroundat athcfo sell at highmargin inflection

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment53 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-01

Sentiment on Cheesecake Factory is decidedly bullish after Q2 crushed estimates (revenue $1.03B, EPS $1.44 beat, comp sales +5.8%). Bulls cite the +75% YTD move as validation of the turnaround, comp sales +5.8% YoY, management raising guidance across the board, and Mizuho upgrading to Neutral with $85 PT (from $75). 'Cheesecake Factory outperforming AI' captures the loudest bullish framing. Stock is at all-time highs; even bears are struggling to argue against the tape.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CAKE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates 300+ casual dining restaurants under Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Fox Restaurant Concepts brands.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CAKE.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Food input cost inflation is the margin headwind across the sector; Cracker Barrel's turnaround narrative and CAVA's Mediterranean expansion are the two..

What this means for $CAKE

Neutral — Operates 300+ casual dining restaurants under Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Fox Restaurant Concepts brands; limited read-through from restaurants macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

20-name peer basket
+18.7%YTD
-5.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
21.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
38.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
62.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 28, 2026$1.44$1.18+22.0%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$1.05$1.03+1.9%
Q4 2025Feb 18, 2026$1.00$0.98+2.0%
Q3 2025Oct 28, 2025$0.68$0.60+13.3%
Next earningsTue, Oct 27·consensus EPS $0.83

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$978.8M+5.6%15.8%5.6%$1.06$52.2M
Q4 FY25$961.6M+4.4%78.4%3.5%$0.62$50.1M
Q3 FY25$907.2M+4.8%78.2%4.1%$0.68$53.6M
Q2 FY25$955.8M+5.7%78.5%6.8%$1.18$15.3M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 15 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.0B$4.0B – $4.0B$4.46$3.99 – $4.8515
FY27$4.3B$4.3B – $4.3B$4.93$4.34 – $5.3015
FY28$4.7B$4.5B – $4.8B$5.56$5.47 – $5.667

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.97%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+31.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+65.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 45.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.015-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 30Ashley W HanscomPRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER3.5K sh$350KSellJul 30Clark Matthew EliotCFO68.9K sh$6.8MSellJun 2Alexander L CappelloDirector2.5K sh$162KSellMay 1David OvertonChair104.0K sh$6.3MSellMar 10Scarlett MayEVP, GENERAL COUNSEL5.2K sh$328KSellFeb 25Clark Matthew EliotCFO7.0K sh$460KSellFeb 25Ashley W HanscomPRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER3.0K sh$194KSellFeb 25Spero G AlexEVP Operations - CFRI4.8K sh$316KSellFeb 23Alexander L CappelloDirector635 sh$40K
+ 27 other (16 inkinds · 9 awards · 2 exempts) in window

See when $CAKE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-K/APress release / Reg FD (amended)Jul 298-K/A — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated filed an amended Form 8-K/A on July 29, 2026 under Item 7.01 to correct a typographical error in an investor presentation previously furnished. The correction changes the stated FY2026 net income margin figure from 5.0% to 5.4%, a meaningful one-off revision that reflects more accurately the company's guided earnings profile. The amended presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and replaces the corresponding exhibit from the original 8-K filing. This type of 8-K/A correction is typically filed promptly after an error is identified in Regulation FD materials to ensure investors are not misled by the earlier inaccurate disclosure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 288-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) reported Q2 2026 financial results (quarter ended June 30, 2026) via press release (Exhibit 99.1), posted an updated Investor Presentation (Exhibit 99.2), and the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable August 25, 2026 to shareholders of record August 11, 2026. No specific earnings headline figures appear in the filing body; details are in the press release. The dividend declaration signals management confidence in cash flow; investors should review the Q2 press release for same-restaurant sales and margin trends.

8-KShareholder voteJun 38-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated filed an 8-K (Item 5.07) on June 3, 2026 reporting the results of its annual shareholder meeting held May 28, 2026. The excerpt is boilerplate header only; the specific vote tallies on director elections, say-on-pay, auditor ratification, and any other proposals are in the attached exhibit. This is a routine shareholder vote disclosure with no indication of contested proposals.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 298-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated filed an 8-K covering Items 2.02 (earnings), 7.01 (Reg FD), and 8.01 (other events) on April 29, 2026, dated April 23, 2026. The multi-item structure suggests this combines Q1 earnings results, an investor presentation, and a separate material disclosure. The excerpt is XBRL header only with no financial data visible. The Item 8.01 alongside earnings makes this filing more substantive than a routine quarterly report — any restaurant concept expansion or capital return announcement would be the incremental news.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 318-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
3New insider — initial holdingsFeb 253
8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 188-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 10 other (5 13Gs · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

A Cheesecake Factory Insider Sold Into Record Highs After Blowout Quarterfool.com·3d agoWhat This Cheesecake Factory Insider Sale Means After a First $1 Billion Quarterfool.com·3d agoWhy Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Might be Well Poised for a Surgezacks.com·3d agoNew Strong Buy Stocks for July 31stzacks.com·3d agoThe Cheesecake Factory Opens at The Collection at Forsythglobenewswire.com·4d ago

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