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CACAKE

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

$CAKE·$5.1B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$97.02+0.3%YTD+91.7%1Y+77.5%
Price updated 13h ago·X counts updated 4d ago
CACAKE
$CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
$97.02+0.30%847 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $CAKE on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

847X posts · last 7 days
Aug 31Sep 13
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $CAKE's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data16 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

PancakeSwap holders are running a burn-narrative victory lap after 36 straight months of net deflation, with August alone burning 2.07M CAKE against 674K minted. Traders point at V3 doing 75% more revenue than V2 on a much smaller TVL base and cite a 5-year return of +132% beating the S&P. Higher-time-frame targets ladder $3.45 to $50, and the +111% run from an accumulation zone gets celebrated rather than sold.

Read what X is saying about $CAKE

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $CAKE — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-16

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Cheesecake Factory nearly doubled YTD — real comps, real earnings, and a -8% pullback that says the easy money is done.

The Cheesecake Factory runs its namesake full-service chain plus North Italia, Flower Child and Fox restaurants — the sort of casual-dining basket that gets left for dead until it starts hitting comp numbers again.

  • The comps did what nobody expected: Q1 revenue $978.8M was up 5.6% YoY, the last four earnings prints all beat by 2–22%, and FY26 EPS consensus of $4.49 anchors a 22x forward multiple that isn't cheap but is defensible on the traffic trajectory — this is a chain hitting its numbers, not one lucky quarter.
  • The setup is unusual for the sector: 91% YTD run into a -8% single-day pullback, sitting 37% above the 200-day, at a 45M-share float and 1x beta — that combination on a mid-cap restaurant name means specific institutional bids have been showing up, and today's pullback is what happens when short-term names take profits.
  • The debt profile is the honest counterweight: debt-to-equity 4.7x — this is a leveraged operator that needs the traffic story to keep working; a comp deceleration below 3% is what puts the interest bill back in focus and turns cooling into a bigger giveback.

A next leg needs Oct 27 to show US same-store-sales above 4% and North Italia unit-growth reaffirmed. A comp miss or a soft holiday-season guide is what breaks the cooling into a real drawdown.

Differs from X sentimentThe bullish CAKE chatter is about the PancakeSwap crypto token — 36 months net-deflationary, $3 to $25 targets — not the restaurant equity. Ticker collision; no real crowd read here.

What to watch: Oct 27 Q3 print — same-store-sales growth, North Italia comp trajectory, and holiday-season guide. Comps above 4% plus in-line guide restarts the trend; a comp deceleration into a leverage-heavy balance sheet is what invalidates it.

On the calendar: 2026-10-27 — Q3 earnings

ticker collision cryptohigh leveragesmall float

Read the AI verdict on $CAKE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates 300+ casual dining restaurants under Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Fox Restaurant Concepts brands.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CAKE.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

Value-conscious consumer trade-down sustains QSR and fast-casual at the expense of casual dining; digital ordering and loyalty platforms are the operating-efficiency moats. McDonald's sits at decade-low valuation multiples while Starbucks' turnaround has delivered a 30% stock recovery, creating divergent narratives within the same sector headwind.

What this means for $CAKE

Partial — Cheesecake Factory's diversified casual dining portfolio (North Italia, Fox Restaurant Concepts) benefits from premium differentiation; North Italia fast-casual exposure captures some trade-down but core concept faces casual dining headwinds.

Industry benchmark

17-name peer basket
-8.2%YTD
-19.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
21.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
38.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
62.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 28, 2026$1.44$1.18+22.0%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$1.05$1.03+1.9%
Q4 2025Feb 18, 2026$1.00$0.98+2.0%
Q3 2025Oct 28, 2025$0.68$0.60+13.3%
Next earningsTue, Oct 27·consensus EPS $0.87

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$978.8M+5.6%15.8%5.6%$1.06$52.2M
Q4 FY25$961.6M+4.4%78.4%3.5%$0.62$50.1M
Q3 FY25$907.2M+4.8%78.2%4.1%$0.68$53.6M
Q2 FY25$955.8M+5.7%78.5%6.8%$1.18$15.3M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 15 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.0B$4.0B – $4.1B$4.49$4.32 – $5.0714
FY27$4.3B$4.2B – $4.5B$4.97$4.34 – $5.8315
FY28$4.7B$4.5B – $4.9B$5.63$5.51 – $5.857

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.72%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+37.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 45.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.015-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Janice L. MeyerDirector2.0K sh$214KSellAug 10David M GordonPresident31.9K sh$3.5MSellAug 10Edie A AmesDirector3.0K sh$321KSellAug 5David OvertonChair94.1K sh$10.0MSellAug 4Alexander L CappelloDirector64 sh$7KSellAug 3Alexander L CappelloDirector59 sh$6KSellJul 31Alexander L CappelloDirector100 sh$10KSellJul 31Scarlett MayEVP, GENERAL COUNSEL8.0K sh$819KSellJul 30Alexander L CappelloDirector2.1K sh$213KSellJul 30Ashley W HanscomPRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER3.5K sh$350K
1–10 of 13
+ 12 other (4 inkinds · 3 exempts · 3 awards · 2 gifts) in window

See when $CAKE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-K/APress release / Reg FD (amended)Jul 298-K/A — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated filed an amended Form 8-K/A on July 29, 2026 under Item 7.01 to correct a typographical error in an investor presentation previously furnished. The correction changes the stated FY2026 net income margin figure from 5.0% to 5.4%, a meaningful one-off revision that reflects more accurately the company's guided earnings profile. The amended presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and replaces the corresponding exhibit from the original 8-K filing. This type of 8-K/A correction is typically filed promptly after an error is identified in Regulation FD materials to ensure investors are not misled by the earlier inaccurate disclosure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 288-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) reported Q2 2026 financial results (quarter ended June 30, 2026) via press release (Exhibit 99.1), posted an updated Investor Presentation (Exhibit 99.2), and the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable August 25, 2026 to shareholders of record August 11, 2026. No specific earnings headline figures appear in the filing body; details are in the press release. The dividend declaration signals management confidence in cash flow; investors should review the Q2 press release for same-restaurant sales and margin trends.

8-KShareholder voteJun 38-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated filed an 8-K (Item 5.07) on June 3, 2026 reporting the results of its annual shareholder meeting held May 28, 2026. The excerpt is boilerplate header only; the specific vote tallies on director elections, say-on-pay, auditor ratification, and any other proposals are in the attached exhibit. This is a routine shareholder vote disclosure with no indication of contested proposals.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 298-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated filed an 8-K covering Items 2.02 (earnings), 7.01 (Reg FD), and 8.01 (other events) on April 29, 2026, dated April 23, 2026. The multi-item structure suggests this combines Q1 earnings results, an investor presentation, and a separate material disclosure. The excerpt is XBRL header only with no financial data visible. The Item 8.01 alongside earnings makes this filing more substantive than a routine quarterly report — any restaurant concept expansion or capital return announcement would be the incremental news.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 318-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
+ 9 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is a Top Growth Stock for the Long-Termzacks.com·6d agoAre Retail-Wholesale Stocks Lagging The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) This Year?zacks.com·8d agoThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Presents at Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference Transcriptseekingalpha.com·9d agoCAKE's Rewards App Attracts New Guests: Can Higher Frequency Follow?zacks.com·9d ago3 Dividend Growth Stocks to Buy as Fed Expected to Keep Rates Higherzacks.com·9d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CAKE on X in the last 7 days.

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