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TSTSLA

Tesla, Inc.

$TSLA·$1.5T·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$400.49+1.0%YTD-12.5%1Y+24.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
20,180
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 16d ago
TSTSLA
Tesla, Inc.$TSLA
$400.49+1.04%20k posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSLA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-06-18

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Story-stock running on fumes while capital openly rotates into SpaceX next door.

Tesla is still the world's largest pure-play EV maker but increasingly trades as a robotaxi and FSD optionality wager — and this week SpaceX's IPO openly stole both the headlines and a meaningful share of the Musk-trade flow. Revenue grew 16% YoY last quarter at a 4% operating margin, the trailing P/E sits near 326x, and June (historically Tesla's strongest month) is down ~5%. The Cybercab EPA cert and Beijing FSD footage are real but the float has tagged the same band for months — sitting right at the 50-day MA and just below the 200-day — and 'merge Tesla with SpaceX' jokes are doing work the chart should be doing.

Differs from X sentimentSentiment is genuinely split; I lean with the catalyst-fatigue camp over the Cybercab/FSD bulls — the 326x multiple needs robotaxi unit economics on the screen, not test footage.

What to watch: Q2 delivery report in early July and the July 22 print: a real FSD subscription number and any robotaxi unit-economics disclosure are what would put a floor under the multiple here.

On the calendar: 2026-07-22 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠185 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-18 · top-engagement diverged

Tesla conversation is dominated by SpaceX overtaking it in market cap on day one of its IPO, with shareholders openly asking Elon to merge the two companies. Bulls cite the Cybercab EPA certificate of conformity, Goldman raising Q2 delivery estimates from 400k to 420k, FSD progress in China and a long-running bullish ascending-triangle setup. A skeptical camp argues Tesla has lost its mag-7 identity, that it is now a speculation on what the eventual SPCX exchange ratio will be, and that the historically strong June month is still down five percent. Positioning chatter is split between accumulating sub-$400 for a merger trade and trimming as SPCX absorbs the speculative dollars.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSLA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes electric vehicles, Megapack grid batteries, and solar products, with autonomous driving and robotaxi development.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSLA.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

ICE truck and SUV margins remain the profitability floor for legacy OEMs, funding EV transition losses that still drag Ford and Stellantis earnings. OpenAI's robotics division launch this week adds a new competitive vector to Tesla's FSD/robotaxi moat, while NIO and XPEV budget-model expansion continues compressing Tesla China pricing.

What this means for $TSLA

Partial — OpenAI's robotics division is the week's key overhang on Tesla's FSD/Optimus moat; Chinese NIO/XPEV budget pressure continues compressing Tesla's China ASPs; ICE margin erosion at Ford/GM supports Tesla's EV-only positioning.

See how Auto - Manufacturers shapes $TSLA

  • Where the industry is in its cycle and the catalysts moving it now
  • What this means specifically for $TSLA's next move
  • Peer-basket or ETF benchmark you can use to gut-check the read
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Industry benchmark

8-name peer basket
-15.1%YTD
+4.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
326.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
15.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
4.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
19.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$0.41$0.35+15.9%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$0.50$0.45+9.9%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$0.50$0.56-10.4%
Q2 2025Jul 23, 2025$0.40$0.40+0.7%
Next earningsWed, Jul 22·consensus EPS $0.45

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$22.4B+15.8%21.1%4.2%$0.15$1.4B
Q4 FY25$24.9B-3.1%20.1%5.7%$0.26$1.4B
Q3 FY25$28.1B+11.6%18.0%5.8%$0.43$4.0B
Q2 FY25$22.5B-11.8%17.2%4.1%$0.36$146.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 35 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$102.8B$91.7B – $114.1B$1.89$1.06 – $3.0235
FY27$118.1B$105.0B – $132.2B$2.42$1.36 – $3.4435
FY28$139.7B$139.0B – $140.5B$3.21$1.31 – $5.4430
FY29$223.8B$195.7B – $267.5B$6.50$5.43 – $8.1415
FY30$237.7B$207.8B – $284.1B$9.05$7.57 – $11.3521

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.53%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-0.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 2.8B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.805-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Know if $TSLA is setting up — or just chopping

  • Volume multiple vs 30-day baseline — catch unusual interest before the move
  • Position vs 50d & 200d MAs and 52-week range — trend direction at a glance
  • Float bucket, beta, and active-offering flags — what kind of stock you're trading
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Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 8Vaibhav TanejaCFO2.6K sh$1.0MSellMay 13Vaibhav TanejaCFO3.0K sh$1.4MSellApr 30Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector26.4K sh$10.0MSellMar 30Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector25.8K sh$9.3MSellMar 6Vaibhav TanejaCFO2.3K sh$899KSellFeb 25Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector4.9K sh$2.0M
+ 10 other (8 exempts · 1 inkind · 1 return) in window

See when $TSLA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 13 other (4 13Gs · 4 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Does a SpaceX and Tesla Merger Make Sense? Here's What Investors Should Knowfool.com·10h agoHe Quietly Sold Nvidia. Now We Know Whyinvestorplace.com·13h agoGoldman Sachs Says SpaceX Could Hit $474 Billion in Revenue by 2030. Here Are the 3 AI Stocks That Benefit Most.fool.com·15h agoMark Your Calendar: SpaceX Stock Could Look Very Different After Earningsfool.com·16h agoHere's How to Invest in the $200 Billion Humanoid Robot Future With ETFszacks.com·16h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Robotics & HumanoidsEVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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