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LVLVWR

LiveWire Group, Inc.

$LVWR·$283M·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$1.38+36.6%YTD-69.2%1Y-71.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-06-20: 0 posts2026-06-21: 1 posts2026-06-22: 3 posts2026-06-23: 3 posts2026-06-24: 1 posts2026-06-25: 1 posts2026-06-26: 10 posts19
Price updated 17h ago·X counts updated 17h ago
LVLVWR
$LVWRLiveWire Group, Inc.
$1.38+36.63%19 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LVWR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-06-27

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

LiveWire at $1.38 down 69% YTD but +37% today on tiny float — sub-scale electric motorcycle with Q1 revenue just $5.1M and no path to profitability.

LiveWire Group is the Harley-Davidson-spinoff electric motorcycle company — selling LiveWire electric models plus the Mulholland and the new Honcho mini-moto across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Stock is down 69% YTD and 72% TTM at $1.38 (7% of 52w range) on persistent sub-scale economics; today's +37% on a 33x volume spike is the typical broken-microcap short-cover.

What's happening:

  • Q1 revenue $5.1M was +86% YoY but absolute scale is sub-$20M annualized — the four-quarter revenue pattern ($5.9M Q2, $5.7M Q3, $11.4M Q4 — seasonal, $5.1M Q1) confirms the franchise hasn't scaled past sub-scale despite the 5-year history; operating margin -345% Q1 (-156% Q4) reflects fixed-cost overhead that's structurally unprofitable at this revenue level.
  • The May 19 Dust Moto acquisition plus June 9 Honcho mini-moto launch is the pivot to broader-segment EV motorcycle — combined with Q1 losses and FY26 consensus EPS -$0.27, the bull case requires unit-volume scaling the operating history hasn't shown.
  • At PS 10x trailing and PE negative, the multiple reflects the broken-story discount — bull case is Harley-Davidson parent ownership (still ~75%) provides funding backstop; bear case is the 33x volume spike on a micro-float is technical-only and the typical post-bounce reversal back below $1 is the structural pattern.
  • Position-52w 7% with stock 55% below 200-day is deep drawdown — F-InKind tax-withholding is routine post-vest not strategic; absence of P-Purchase is the absence-of-conviction signal that supports the broken-story read.

The July 29 Q2 print is the test. Revenue scaling toward $10M plus operating margin improving toward -50% from -345% extends the bounce toward $2+. Another sub-$8M revenue print combined with the structural cash-burn pattern triggers the typical broken-microcap reversal back below $1.

What to watch: July 29 Q2 earnings: revenue scaling toward $10M plus operating margin improving toward -50% from -345% extends the bounce toward $2+. Another sub-$8M revenue print combined with the cash-burn pattern triggers the typical broken-microcap reversal back below $1.

On the calendar: 2026-07-29 — Q2 2026 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

LiveWire Group, Inc. specializes in the production of electric motorcycles, catering to markets across North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific. The company markets its zero-emission two-wheelers under the LiveWire brand name. Furthermore, it maintains strategic alliances with industry leaders Harley-Davidson, Inc. and the KYMCO Group. Established in 2010, LiveWire Group, Inc. is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LVWR.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

ICE truck and SUV margins remain the profitability floor for legacy OEMs, funding EV transition losses that still drag Ford and Stellantis earnings. OpenAI's robotics division launch this week adds a new competitive vector to Tesla's FSD/robotaxi moat, while NIO and XPEV budget-model expansion continues compressing Tesla China pricing.

Industry benchmark

12-name peer basket
-12.7%YTD
-6.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-3.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-67.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-258%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-18.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
10.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-137%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-10.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.09——
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$-0.09——
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-0.10——
Q2 2025Jul 30, 2025$-0.09——
Next earningsWed, Jul 29

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$5.1M+86.5%-10.5%-345%$-0.09$-13.7M
Q4 FY25$11.4M+5.5%0.8%-156%$-0.09$-8.9M
Q3 FY25$5.7M+28.3%-50.9%-330%$-0.10$-14.0M
Q2 FY25$5.9M-8.9%9.3%-311%$-0.09$-16.3M

Forward consensus

1-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$181.0M$181.0M – $181.0M-$0.27-$0.27 – -$0.271

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.33.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.7%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-7.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-54.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 10.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today40.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.685-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 23 other (14 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $LVWR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

LiveWire Group, Inc. Commences Production of All‑New S4 Honcho™ Mini‑Moto Modelsbusinesswire.com·18d agoLiveWire Group, Inc. Acquires Dust Motobusinesswire.com·39d agoLiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·53d agoLiveWire Group, Inc. Reports 2026 First Quarter Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com·53d agoLiveWire Group, Inc. To Report First Quarter 2026 Results on May 5, 2026businesswire.com·65d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

EVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $LVWR on X in the last 7 days.

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