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TickerTalks›$LVWR
LVLVWR

LiveWire Group, Inc.

Rising onTrending downwardX mentions rising faster than the marketBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$LVWR·$221M·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$1.20-4.0%YTD-68.3%1Y-68.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-07: 1 posts2026-08-08: 0 posts2026-08-09: 2 posts2026-08-10: 5 posts2026-08-11: 3 posts2026-08-12: 0 posts2026-08-13: 3 posts14-42%
Price updated 15h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
LVLVWR
$LVWRLiveWire Group, Inc.
$1.20-4.00%14 posts-42%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LVWR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-14

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

LiveWire at $1.22 with 5 insider sales in the window (officer + director cluster ~$735K total) — Harley's electric-motorcycle spinout just regained NYSE compliance after losing it.

LiveWire's four-quarter revenue is $5.1M–$11.4M with EPS steady at -$0.09 across all four quarters and negative or barely-positive gross margin — the operating base is tiny relative to the parent's expectation, and debt/equity 2.64 confirms the balance sheet is stretched.

  • Insider signal (all sales): Karim Donnez (officer) 230,557 shares at $2.33 ($537K); Kjell Gruner (director) 94,091 at $2.11 ($199K), plus additional sells — a decisive cluster of executive selling above the current $1.22 price.
  • Consensus FY26 revenue $181M / EPS -$0.27 (1 analyst) — a bare model against Q1 revenue $5.1M; the $181M FY26 target is a ~35× step from the current quarterly base and looks aspirational given the burn profile.
  • -67% over 12 months, -68% YTD, position 10% of 52-week range, +6% above 50-day (post-compliance bounce) and -48% below 200-day MA, beta 1.65 — bombed base with a compliance-driven bounce that the insider cluster is selling into.

Next print 2026-10-22 is where the revenue trajectory, cash runway, and any Harley parent-support commentary either signal a path forward or confirm the wind-down/restructure scenario.

Differs from X sentimentX commentary on LVWR is momentum/watchlist chatter without fundamental substance ('top 3 stocks each morning' setup calls) — that's not a view on the company, and it conflicts with what the insider selling and balance-sheet data signal.

What to watch: October 22 Q3 print — unit shipments, revenue trajectory vs the $181M FY26 model, cash runway, Harley-Davidson parent support commentary, and any additional Donnez/Gruner insider filings.

On the calendar: 2026-10-22 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-04

LiveWire chatter is short-timeframe trader flavor. Multiple daily-watchlist posts flag LVWR alongside INLF and DFNS as 'top 3 stocks' each morning, with claims of consecutive-day nailed picks. One trader waited for a 'death candle' to short but the community is uniformly setup-driven. There is no fundamental discussion or bearish take-down — the tone is pure momentum-and-pattern.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LVWR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Harley-Davidson-backed electric motorcycle maker selling zero-emission two-wheelers under the LiveWire brand across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LVWR.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — ICE truck and SUV margins remain the profitability floor for legacy OEMs, funding EV transition losses that still drag Ford and Stellantis earnings.

What this means for $LVWR

Neutral — Harley-Davidson-backed electric motorcycle maker selling zero-emission two-wheelers under the LiveWire brand across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific; limited read-through from auto - manufacturers macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

15-name peer basket
-14.9%YTD
-11.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-3.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-67.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-258%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-18.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
10.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-137%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-10.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 23, 2026$-0.09——
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.09——
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$-0.09——
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-0.10——
Next earningsThu, Oct 22

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$5.1M+86.5%-10.5%-345%$-0.09$-13.7M
Q4 FY25$11.4M+5.5%0.8%-156%$-0.09$-8.9M
Q3 FY25$5.7M+28.3%-50.9%-330%$-0.10$-14.0M
Q2 FY25$5.9M-8.9%9.3%-311%$-0.09$-16.3M

Forward consensus

1-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$181.0M$181.0M – $181.0M-$0.27-$0.27 – -$0.271

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.10%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-49.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 10.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today10.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.655-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 31William L CornogDirector216 sh$486SellJul 31Kjell GrunerDirector94.1K sh$199KSellJul 30Kjell GrunerDirector7.1K sh$14KSellJul 29Jeremiah NienhuisHead of Strat. & Product Ops.10.7K sh$25KSellJul 29Karim DonnezCEO230.6K sh$537K
+ 21 other (12 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $LVWR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KListing / delisting noticeJul 298-K — Item 3.01: Listing / delisting notice · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

LiveWire Group, Inc (LVWR) received a listing deficiency notice from NYSE (Item 3.01), filed 2026-07-29. Deficiency notices give companies typically 180 days to restore compliance. Investors should monitor the company's compliance plan and remediation timeline.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 228-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LiveWire Group completed the acquisition of substantially all assets of Dust Motorcycles, Inc. (design, development, manufacture, and distribution of electric motorcycles, dirt bikes, and related powertrain technology) on May 18, 2026. Consideration included $375,000 cash plus $500,000 in LiveWire shares plus additional equity consideration to selling holders. Strategic bolt-on acquisition expanding LiveWire's electric two-wheel portfolio.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 198-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

LiveWire Group issued a press release on May 19, 2026 regarding the Dust Motorcycles asset acquisition announced May 18, 2026; the full asset purchase agreement will be filed in a separate 8-K. Supplementary press release for the LiveWire/Dust Motorcycles acquisition.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Dan Lehrbaum (3700 W Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee WI) filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement for LiveWire Group as of May 6, 2026. Administrative disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Jeremiah Nienhuis (3700 W. Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee WI) filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement for LiveWire Group as of May 6, 2026. Administrative disclosure for a second LiveWire executive.

+ 8 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

LiveWire Group Regains Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing Standardsgurufocus.com·5d agoLiveWire Group Regains Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing Standardsbusinesswire.com·5d agoOne Year Later, LiveWire Remains Extremely Riskyseekingalpha.com·10d agoFrom Sturgis to Sliding Sideways in Milwaukee: LiveWire and Gas Monkey Garage Reunite to Build a Custom S4 Honcho™ for New Flat Track Race Classbusinesswire.com·11d agoBenzinga's 'Stock Whisper' Index: 5 Stocks Investors Secretly Monitor But Don't Talk About Yetbenzinga.com·14d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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