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TSTSLA

Tesla, Inc.

$TSLA·$1.5T·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$380.84-2.6%YTD-16.8%1Y+19.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 2,715 posts2026-07-12: 8,239 posts2026-07-13: 8,969 posts2026-07-14: 9,662 posts2026-07-15: 10,658 posts2026-07-16: 8,366 posts2026-07-17: 4,477 posts54,805+24%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 3h ago
TSTSLA
$TSLATesla, Inc.
$380.84-2.61%55k posts+24%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSLA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Three separate stories priced into one stock — earnings on July 22 is where management has to pick which one is real.

Tesla is really three bets in a trench coat: the auto business, the Cybercab robotaxi rollout, and the Optimus humanoid arm. The stock has been stuck under $400 for months while the market waits to see which one earnings force to the front.

Where each piece stands:

  • The core auto business has softened materially: gross margin sits at 19% versus north of 25% two years ago, and the 326x TTM P/E is clearly not being paid for the car company underneath.
  • Cybercab is hardware, not a slide: units are staging in Miami and at Giga Texas, but revenue contribution is still a next-year story — July 22 is when management has to timestamp scale and unit economics.
  • Optimus is the missing proof: management is guiding to 100k units per year, but customer-level demonstrations haven't landed, which is the specific overhang keeping funds from chasing.
  • The tape has quietly given up ground: down 15% YTD in a bull-market year, trading below the 200-day moving average with volume 36% below its 30-day average — that's institutions stepping aside, not distributing.

Everything now hinges on the July 22 call: a credible Cybercab revenue timeline plus a real Optimus demo reopens the upside path; anything short means the discount widens. Sizing the bet ahead of a binary event is the honest question, not conviction.

What to watch: July 22 earnings — Cybercab unit economics and delivery timeline, an Optimus customer-level demo, and any commentary on auto gross margin recovery. Silence on any of the three is bearish.

On the calendar: 2026-07-22 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment29 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

Tesla chatter mixes bullish operational milestones with an unresolved chart. Bulls emphasize the Robotaxi fleet in Texas hitting 175 fully autonomous unsupervised Model Ys (adding 58 in the latest tranche, implying ~$10.5M annual revenue at $60k/vehicle), Elon Musk announcing planned Optimus manufacturing lines at 1M units in Fremont and 10M units at Giga Texas, a Japan supercharger partnership with 7-Eleven, ASML's 2027-2028 capacity plans explicitly citing Musk's Terafab demand, and NTSB confirming that a recent FSD crash was driver fault (100% accelerator input). Skeptics point out the stock has been stuck testing $390-395 with declining volume for weeks and needs earnings and end-of-quarter Robotaxi data to break the range.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSLA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes electric vehicles, Megapack grid batteries, and solar products, with autonomous driving and robotaxi development.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSLA.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — ICE truck and SUV margins remain the profitability floor for legacy OEMs, funding EV transition losses that still drag Ford and Stellantis earnings.

What this means for $TSLA

Partial — Makes electric vehicles, Megapack grid batteries, and solar products, with autonomous driving and robotaxi development; this segment overlaps with the EV transition with ICE profitability as the funding floor but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Industry benchmark

13-name peer basket
-18.7%YTD
-20.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
326.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
15.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
4.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
19.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$0.41$0.35+15.9%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$0.50$0.45+9.9%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$0.50$0.56-10.4%
Q2 2025Jul 23, 2025$0.40$0.40+0.7%
Next earningsWed, Jul 22·consensus EPS $0.50

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$22.4B+15.8%21.1%4.2%$0.15$1.4B
Q4 FY25$24.9B-3.1%20.1%5.7%$0.26$1.4B
Q3 FY25$28.1B+11.6%18.0%5.8%$0.43$4.0B
Q2 FY25$22.5B-11.8%17.2%4.1%$0.36$146.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 35 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$103.6B$97.0B – $113.2B$1.94$1.25 – $2.9535
FY27$118.5B$103.9B – $130.7B$2.46$1.12 – $3.7235
FY28$139.8B$139.3B – $140.2B$3.24$1.33 – $5.2230
FY29$226.1B$200.8B – $267.4B$6.56$5.61 – $8.1215
FY30$241.8B$214.8B – $286.0B$9.17$7.84 – $11.3521

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.46%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-6.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 2.6B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.805-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 8Vaibhav TanejaCFO2.6K sh$1.0MSellMay 13Vaibhav TanejaCFO3.0K sh$1.4MSellApr 30Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector26.4K sh$10.0MSellMar 30Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector25.8K sh$9.3MSellMar 6Vaibhav TanejaCFO2.3K sh$899KSellFeb 25Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector4.9K sh$2.0M
+ 10 other (8 exempts · 1 inkind · 1 return) in window

See when $TSLA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 13 other (4 earnings 8-Ks · 4 13Gs · 2 10-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before July 22?fool.com·1d agoTesla Delivered 480,126 Vehicles Last Quarter. Here's Why the Stock Didn't Rally.fool.com·1d agoWhat's Going On With the Drop in Tesla Stock?benzinga.com·1d agoTesla's Robotaxi Just Launched in Miami. Here's How Small the Service Area Really Isfool.com·1d agoUS agency denies Tesla petition to avoid recall fix over headlight issuereuters.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Robotics & HumanoidsEVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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