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TSTSLA

Tesla, Inc.

$TSLA·$1.3T·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$368.01+5.5%YTD-28.5%1Y+11.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 1,118 posts15,325+8%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
TSTSLA
$TSLATesla, Inc.
$368.01+5.52%15k posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSLA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

The car business is shrinking; the trillion-dollar price tag is now paid for by Optimus and the robotaxi promise.

Tesla is still an auto and energy business on the P&L, but at more than a trillion in market cap the stock is paid as a bet on Optimus (the humanoid robot) and the Cybercab robotaxi. The year has been an air-out — down about a quarter YTD — as the underlying numbers grew slower than the narrative around them.

  • The auto engine is going the wrong way: revenue slid from $28.1B in the strong quarter to $22.4B most recently, and blended gross margin has drifted down toward the high teens — hardware pricing power is thinning, and Q1's $0.15 EPS shows how little cushion is left in the base business.
  • The full $1.3T cap is now Optimus + robotaxi optionality: Optimus is entering production in Fremont and the Citizens Bank $1.7T US labor market at $5/hr vs $35/hr is the sizing behind the bull dream — but shipping one factory-side pilot is a very long way from any of that revenue, and the market is already paying for a big chunk of it.
  • The multiple only pencils if the narrative lands on the calendar: analysts model ~$105B of 2026 revenue and only $1.81 EPS — a 190x forward number that mathematically requires the Cybercab reveal, Optimus scale-up, and the Oct 28 print to each show real progress.

A cleanly executed Cybercab/Semi event and even one hard-number Optimus commitment (units, price, customer) restarts the story; a Q3 print that shows further auto-margin erosion with no dated Optimus revenue lets the cooling turn into a real de-rate.

Differs from X sentimentX is bullish on Cybercab/Optimus catalysts and the FSD/Colombia clips, but the crowd is treating optionality as if it were dated revenue — the underlying auto numbers are decelerating and 'stuck at $350' ignores that the stock still has to grow into a rich multiple.

What to watch: The Oct 28 Q3 print for auto gross-margin and any hard Optimus commitment (unit target, pricing, first commercial customer), plus a dated Cybercab reveal. Absent either, the tape stays in the $300s.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment186 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Bulls are anchored to the September 3 Cybercab event, robotaxi geofence expansions in Dallas and Austin, and Model Y topping foreign-car charts in Japan and Korea, framing Cybercab and Optimus as generational upside. Posters cite unsupervised FSD improvements and Elon's Hold on to your Tesla stock line. Bears push back with fatal-crash clips, red-light-running FSD footage, Waymo comparisons, and TTM earnings down roughly 22% YoY, enough friction to keep the crowd noisy rather than consensual.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSLA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes electric vehicles, Megapack grid batteries, and solar products, with autonomous driving and robotaxi development.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSLA.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

EV adoption curve uncertainty and tariff-driven cost structures weigh on margins; OEMs are caught between legacy ICE profitability and EV capital commitments that haven't yet scaled. China competition in EV is the structural headwind — pricing pressure on volume is not abating.

What this means for $TSLA

Partial — upstream oil & gas exposure ties to commodity price cycle; Tesla, Inc.

Industry benchmark

15-name peer basket
-17.5%YTD
-16.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
326.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
15.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
4.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
19.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 22, 2026$0.33$0.50-34.0%
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$0.41$0.35+15.9%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$0.50$0.45+9.9%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$0.50$0.56-10.4%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $0.47

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$22.4B+15.8%21.1%4.2%$0.15$1.4B
Q4 FY25$24.9B-3.1%20.1%5.7%$0.26$1.4B
Q3 FY25$28.1B+11.6%18.0%5.8%$0.43$4.0B
Q2 FY25$22.5B-11.8%17.2%4.1%$0.36$146.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 33 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$105.1B$97.4B – $113.5B$1.81$1.33 – $2.6833
FY27$120.2B$103.9B – $130.8B$2.35$1.16 – $3.5433
FY28$142.8B$113.9B – $189.9B$3.17$1.38 – $6.3129
FY29$224.9B$195.8B – $274.6B$6.51$5.41 – $8.3818
FY30$239.1B$208.1B – $291.9B$9.06$7.54 – $11.6714

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.35%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+2.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-8.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 2.8B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.835-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 8Vaibhav TanejaCFO2.6K sh$1.0MSellMay 13Vaibhav TanejaCFO3.0K sh$1.4MSellApr 30Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector26.4K sh$10.0MSellMar 30Kathleen Wilson-thompsonDirector25.8K sh$9.3MSellMar 6Vaibhav TanejaCFO2.3K sh$899K
+ 9 other (7 exempts · 1 inkind · 1 return) in window

See when $TSLA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 13 other (4 earnings 8-Ks · 4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Elon Musk Is Spending $119 Billion on A Single Building Outside Houston. Here's Who Actually Profits.247wallst.com·9h agoTesla Stock Has Been on a Hot Streak Ahead of Big Event This Weekinvestopedia.com·11h agoStock Market Today, Aug. 31: Tesla Stock Surges on Cybercab Event Anticipationfool.com·11h agoTSLW Pays Tesla Investors Every Week. Its Share Price Is Down 29% This Year.247wallst.com·11h agoTesla's stock is leading S&P 500 gainers as investors prepare for a Cybercab launchmarketwatch.com·13h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Robotics & HumanoidsEVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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