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NINIO

NIO Inc.

$NIO·$11B·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$4.88-2.1%YTD-5.6%1Y+21.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 645 posts2026-07-10: 853 posts2026-07-11: 911 posts2026-07-12: 648 posts2026-07-13: 1,047 posts2026-07-14: 655 posts2026-07-15: 602 posts5,409+0%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
NINIO
$NIONIO Inc.
$4.89-2.10%5.4k posts+0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NIO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

H1 deliveries up 68% and the ES8 selling on day one — but the tape doesn't yet believe the volume story.

NIO is the premium Chinese EV maker that finally started shipping cars in real volumes: H1 2026 wholesale volumes hit 191,123 units, up 68% YoY, and the newly launched ES8 five-seater was delivered on the day of announcement. The stock, however, is still stuck near $5 — the tape doesn't yet believe.

  • The volume ramp is meaningfully changing the P&L: Q1 revenue grew 112% YoY to RMB 25.5B, and gross margin lifted to 19% from below 10% two quarters earlier — operational leverage is showing up, though operating margin is still slightly negative as SG&A builds around the volume.
  • The debt structure is the real risk: debt-to-equity of 6.1x is extreme, Q2 2025 free cash flow was minus RMB 13.9B, and analyst consensus needs FY26 revenue near RMB 136B — the volume story has to keep translating into positive unit economics to service that stack.
  • The setup is coiled with real Wave-2 structure: 191k H1 deliveries plus an ES8 that sold on day one is credible turnaround evidence, and community modelling of Wave 3 targets to $10-14 has a specific chart basis — a weekly close above the June pivot high flips the primary trend for the technical crowd.

The September 1 Q2 print is the near-term arbiter — a monthly delivery run-rate above 30k, ES8 mix keeping gross margin above 19%, and any European-expansion cadence would validate the turnaround. A weekly close below $4.70 opens the $3.59-$4.10 zone.

What to watch: The September 1 Q2 earnings. Monthly delivery run-rate above 30k, gross margin holding above 19% with ES8 mix commentary, and European-expansion cadence are the three lines. Weekly close below $4.70 opens the $3.59-$4.10 downside zone.

On the calendar: 2026-09-01 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠76 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15 · top-engagement diverged

NIO's fundamentals-versus-tape gap is the story. Bulls hammer that H1 2026 wholesale volumes hit 191,123 units up 67.6% YoY, with the newly-launched ES8 5-seater at RMB382,800 delivering the same day of announcement and Li Bin claiming Porsche-China share loss to NIO. Yet the stock is stuck around $4.80 with holders complaining about 'barcoding' fills, a lost 100W SMA, and threats of a weekly close below $4.70 opening a leg to $3.59-4.10. Bulls treat the current setup as a Wave 2 base with targets of $10-14, while bears keep the primary bearish Elliott count active until price reclaims the June pivot high. Sentiment is a real coin-flip.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $NIO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and sells premium smart EVs in China with a differentiated battery-swapping network for rapid energy replenishment.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NIO.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — ICE truck and SUV margins remain the profitability floor for legacy OEMs, funding EV transition losses that still drag Ford and Stellantis earnings.

What this means for $NIO

Direct beneficiary — Designs and sells premium smart EVs in China with a differentiated battery-swapping network for rapid energy replenishment; primary revenue lines track directly to the EV transition with ICE profitability as the funding floor.

Industry benchmark

13-name peer basket
-19.1%YTD
-17.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-14.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-19.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-329%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
15.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
6.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 21, 2026$-0.03$-0.08+60.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.01$-0.05+120.0%
Q3 2025Nov 25, 2025$-0.16$-0.22+28.6%
Q2 2025Sep 2, 2025$-0.26$-0.31+16.6%
Next earningsTue, Sep 1·consensus EPS $-0.07

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$25.5B+112.2%19.0%-1.2%$-0.20—
Q4 FY25$34.2B+73.4%17.5%1.5%$0.05—
Q3 FY25$21.8B+16.7%13.9%-16.2%$-1.51—
Q2 FY25$19.0B+9.0%10.0%-25.8%$-2.31$-13.9B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 26 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$136.4B$123.8B – $147.8B-$0.44-$0.71 – $0.1416
FY27$160.1B$149.3B – $175.5B$0.74-$0.59 – $2.2220
FY28$176.3B$151.2B – $213.5B$1.73$0.40 – $3.3326
FY29$188.1B$161.3B – $227.7B$2.63$2.15 – $3.3525
FY30$192.1B$164.7B – $232.5B$2.48$2.02 – $3.1615

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.25%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-7.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-11.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.9B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.905-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 6 other (3 exempts · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $NIO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 24 other (18 6-Ks · 4 3s · 1 20-F · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

The Strait of Hormuz Closure Sent Gas Prices Up. EV Stocks Quietly Benefited.fool.com·1d agoZacks Industry Outlook BYD, NIO and Yamahazacks.com·3d agoEV Maker Lucid Hires Firm to Advise on Turnaroundwsj.com·3d ago3 Foreign Auto Stocks to Buy Despite Global Demand Headwindszacks.com·3d agoNIO Inc. (NIO) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

EVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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