TransUnion

TransUnion is one of the three US credit bureaus — the business is essentially a toll booth on consumer credit decisions, sold to lenders, insurers, and background-check customers under multi-year contracts. Q2 reset a story that had been about mortgage weakness and set-up for the next print.

• The Q2 print re-anchored the trajectory: revenue of $1.31B grew 14.9% YoY at a 58% gross margin and a 32% operating margin, EPS of $1.23 beat consensus by 6%, and management raised guidance — the leverage inherent in a fixed-cost data business is finally showing up as growth accelerates.
• The competitive shift matters more than the beat itself: TRU's mortgage volumes were down only 3% QoQ versus FICO's -6%, which is the first time in this rate cycle a bureau has visibly taken share on the highest-dollar file type — that's a mix-shift story with two more quarters of tailwind if it continues.
• The valuation stays defensible: 21x TTM earnings on a business with 5% free-cash-flow yield and mid-teens revenue growth is a reasonable multiple for a network-effect data compounder — analyst consensus of $4.82 FY26 EPS puts the forward at ~17x on numbers that were just revised up.

The Oct 22 print has to keep the momentum visible — another beat, another raise, and continued mortgage-share commentary is what extends the run; a re-acceleration of debt-service costs or any hint that the mortgage-mix advantage was one-quarter noise is what invalidates the setup.