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COCOIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.

$COIN·$41B·Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges·Financial Services
$188.12+5.3%YTD-34.6%1Y-38.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 1,008 posts2026-08-22: 333 posts2026-08-23: 263 posts3,942+1%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
COCOIN
$COINCoinbase Global, Inc.
$188.12+5.31%3.9k posts+1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $COIN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

The pure-play crypto-cycle equity — down 42% and rallying into a Senate vote that either legitimizes the business or postpones the re-rating another year.

Coinbase is the largest US crypto exchange, and its earnings are directly geared to trading volumes and token prices — meaning it becomes a beat-up equity in bear markets and rips in bulls. It's spent the year in bear mode and just started what looks like a base breakout.

  • Revenue has been in freefall through 2025 and into early 2026: quarters ran down 30-55% year-over-year and the last three EPS prints missed consensus by 165-350%, so the tape is pricing a real thaw, not a real business, right now.
  • The upside case runs through regulation and volumes: analysts model FY27 EPS at $4.41 and FY28 at $6.07, which requires both a bill (CLARITY Act, Sept 15 procedural Senate vote flagged) and Bitcoin holding above roughly $80K — miss either and the estimates lose credibility.
  • Product surface keeps expanding: Bitcoin-backed mortgages, perpetual futures in the Base app, and CEO Brian Armstrong's $300K-BTC-by-2030 comments do real work in bull cycles by pulling new user segments in — real product effort, only monetizable if the volumes come.
  • Insider tape leans mildly negative: officer sales through August (COO Emilie Choi's $2.9M, CFO Alesia Haas's $1.3M — mostly tax-withholding but real cash-out too) plus a fresh Chief Legal Officer departure — not blow-up signals, but a reminder the executive team isn't stepping up on the tape.

The path if it works is the Senate vote landing well plus BTC holding — the multiple accepts the FY27 EPS number and the stock re-rates back toward prior cycle highs. The risk is the base breaks and revenue keeps compressing before regulation clears; that's when 'down 42% and cheap' starts looking like a value trap in a cyclical name.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X read — Bitcoin toward $80K, breakout of a multi-month base, Goldman's target lifted to $196 — captures the near-term reflex correctly; the harder question the crowd underweights is that FY27 EPS estimates ($4.41) already require BOTH the CLARITY Act clearing AND volumes staying healthy, so there is less slack than the current tape implies.

What to watch: Sept 15 CLARITY Act procedural vote plus Bitcoin holding the $80K level — a green vote plus stable BTC extends the breakout, a red vote or BTC breakdown reopens the fundamentals gap.

On the calendar: 2026-09-15 — CLARITY Act procedural vote

float missingbeta missing

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment130 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment on Coinbase runs overwhelmingly bullish as posters chase a Bitcoin-driven breakout and float targets from $200 into the $300s. Goldman's raised $196 target, a Chainlink oracle deal, Bitcoin-backed mortgages, and the September 15 CLARITY Act vote get cited as fuel, with chart talk of a 'multi-month base' and reclaimed 200-week moving average. A minority flags near-term profit-taking and warns of a 'sell the news' setup around the vote.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $COIN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates the largest US cryptocurrency exchange and provides custody, staking, and institutional trading infrastructure.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COIN.

Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · Financial Services

Trading volume — which directly drives exchange transaction revenue — is sustained by macro uncertainty and AI-driven algorithmic activity. Data and analytics subscriptions provide recurring revenue insulation from volume volatility.

What this means for $COIN

Direct beneficiary — business directly tied to crypto market cap and adoption cycle; Operates the largest US cryptocurrency exchange and provides custody, staking, a.

Industry benchmark

10-name peer basket
+6.0%YTD
+13.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
50.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
7.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
6.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
5.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
75.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$-1.36$-0.44-206.5%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.24$0.36-166.7%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$-2.49$0.99-350.5%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$1.44$1.20+20.0%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $-0.18

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.4B-30.5%69.7%1.0%$-1.49$182.7M
Q4 FY25$1.0B-54.6%71.9%-43.1%$-2.49$3.1B
Q3 FY25$1.9B+55.1%86.4%25.7%$1.65$-784.5M
Q2 FY25$1.5B+3.3%71.5%-1.6%$5.60$328.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.6B$4.9B – $5.9B-$0.53-$1.22 – $0.3024
FY27$7.1B$6.2B – $8.1B$4.42$1.64 – $6.5023
FY28$8.3B$7.2B – $9.1B$6.07$3.28 – $9.1712
FY29$8.9B$7.6B – $11.6B$6.39$5.16 – $8.9311
FY30$7.7B$6.6B – $10.1B$1.25$1.01 – $1.756

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.15%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-8.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 24Jennifer N. JonesChief Accounting Officer2.1K sh$389KSellAug 3Frederick R WilsonDirector35.1K sh$5.1MSellJul 1Frederick R WilsonDirector500 sh$74KSellJun 5Jennifer N. JonesChief Accounting Officer2.1K sh$324KSellMay 27Paul GrewalChief Legal Officer2.0K sh$347KSellMay 22Lawrence J BrockChief People Officer1.0K sh$191KSellMay 15Alesia J HaasCFO9.8K sh$2.0MSellApr 16Alesia J HaasCFO10.0K sh$2.0MSellMar 16Alesia J HaasCFO9.9K sh$2.0MSellMar 4Alesia J HaasCFO10.0K sh$2.0M
+ 37 other (18 exempts · 10 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $COIN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

COIN filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a personnel change: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The filing also covers Item(s) 9.01. Personnel changes at the executive or board level are typically administrative but can signal strategic shifts depending on context.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 98-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Coinbase Global disclosed that Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal has resigned effective July 6, 2026, and the company expects to appoint Molly Abraham as General Counsel to succeed him. Grewal's departure comes after years of high-profile legal battles defending Coinbase against SEC enforcement actions. The transition to an internal successor suggests continuity in Coinbase's legal strategy. Grewal's experience as a former federal judge and his public advocacy in crypto legal battles will be difficult to replace.

8-KShareholder voteJun 188-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Coinbase (COIN) held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 16, 2026 and filed an 8-K reporting routine director election and proposal vote results (Item 5.07). No extraordinary governance changes were disclosed.

8-KRestructuring / exit costsMay 58-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs
AI summary

COIN filed an 8-K (other items) dated 2026-05-05. 0001679788 FALSE 0001679788 2026-05-05 2026-05-05 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): May 5, 2026 Coinbase Global, Inc. A separation or divestiture could be material to valuation.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

COIN disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-10). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 10 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Coinbase Is Adding Perpetual Futures to Its Base App. Here's What Crypto Investors Need to Know.fool.com·2d agoBitcoin Could Hit $300,000 by 2030, Says Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. Here's Why He's Right.fool.com·2d agoCoinbase Stock: Buy or Sell?fool.com·3d agoCoinbase Just Rallied 14% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?247wallst.com·4d agoCoinbase Brings Crypto Wealth Into Mainstream Mortgageszacks.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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