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ICICE

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

$ICE·$91B·Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges·Financial Services
$161.56+2.0%YTD-3.0%1Y+5.3%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ICICE
$ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc.
$161.56+1.99%201 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ICE on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

201X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ICE's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-12

ICE is bullish — the NYSE parent quietly built a Polymarket stake starting Oct 2025 at ~$8B pre-money, and Polymarket just raised at $21B on Sep 1 (nearly 3x). Bulls flag ICE + CME + SPGI as the Data & Exchanges sector deep-dive; the strategic-investor thesis is being underappreciated. Bearish counter is the Neighborhood Intelligence departing NYSE for Nasdaq (a minor negative signal).

Read what X is saying about $ICE

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ICE — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

ICE quietly built a Polymarket stake at $8B pre-money — Polymarket just raised at $21B, and the market hasn't priced the gain.

Intercontinental Exchange owns the New York Stock Exchange, derivatives franchises in energy and credit, and a growing mortgage-data business. The newest wrinkle is a strategic Polymarket stake taken in October 2025 at ~$8B pre-money.

  • The business is a quality exchange operator: Q1 revenue +13.5% YoY at a 41% operating margin and ROIC of 7.4% — exchange economics plus mortgage-data toll revenue plus fixed-income data compounding.
  • The Polymarket stake is a hidden gain: Polymarket just raised at $21B on Sept 1 — roughly 3x the entry valuation in less than a year, which the ICE multiple hasn't repriced because the stake is small relative to the enterprise.
  • 52-week range position is 55% with volume at 86% of average — mid-range setup into Oct 29 earnings, where the Polymarket mark and the credit-futures growth are the swing factors.

Oct 29 Q3 is the gate — any update on fixed-income data growth plus Polymarket mark-to-market disclosure extends the move. A soft equity-trading volume quarter or weak mortgage-data commentary and the stock stays range-bound.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread's structural pitch — ICE as the sometimes-underappreciated "Data & Exchanges" leader with CME and SPGI, and the Polymarket stake stepup from $8B to $21B — is substantively right and under-priced by the sell-side.

What to watch: Oct 29 Q3 — fixed-income data growth, mortgage-tech revenue, exchange volumes, and any Polymarket mark-to-market disclosure. A soft equity-trading quarter or weak mortgage-tech is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ICE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates NYSE and ICE futures exchanges, clearing houses, mortgage technology, and bond market data services.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ICE.

Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · Financial Services

No material change from last week — COIN cited as bullish setup with CEO forecasting $400K Bitcoin by 2030.

What this means for $ICE

Partial — Operates NYSE and ICE futures exchanges, clearing houses, mortgage technology, and bond market data services.

Industry benchmark

7-name peer basket
-10.9%YTD
-4.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
40.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
6.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
13.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
69.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$1.90$1.84+3.3%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$2.35$2.23+5.4%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$1.71$1.68+1.8%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$1.71$1.60+6.9%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $1.96

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.7B+13.5%81.2%45.4%$2.49$1.1B
Q4 FY25$3.1B+3.6%79.7%38.3%$1.49$1.1B
Q3 FY25$3.0B-0.9%56.8%39.0%$1.43$853.0M
Q2 FY25$3.3B+12.6%56.1%39.8%$1.49$1.4B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$11.1B$10.8B – $11.2B$8.17$7.86 – $8.389
FY27$11.8B$11.2B – $12.2B$8.88$8.38 – $9.079
FY28$12.6B$12.1B – $13.1B$9.95$8.59 – $10.769
FY29$13.4B$13.0B – $13.7B$11.20$10.72 – $11.514
FY30$14.3B$13.8B – $14.6B$12.80$12.26 – $13.164

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.73%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+3.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+4.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 557.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.945-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 14Douglas FoleySVP, HR & Administration1.6K sh$256KSellSep 1Edmonds Christopher ScottPresident5.0K sh$803KSellSep 1Benjamin JacksonPresident12.9K sh$2.1MSellAug 26Andrew J SurdykowskiGeneral Counsel4.6K sh$740KSellAug 26Martha A TirinnanziDirector1.3K sh$216KSellAug 20Douglas FoleySVP, HR & Administration1.6K sh$256KSellAug 19Warren GardinerCFO2.5K sh$389KSellAug 13Martha A TirinnanziDirector141 sh$22KSellAug 12Mayur KapaniCTO4.3K sh$646KSellAug 5Douglas FoleySVP, HR & Administration7.3K sh$1.1M
1–10 of 17
+ 20 other (10 awards · 7 exempts · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $ICE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KCharter amendmentAug 288-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. filed its Eighth Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation, which became effective on August 28, 2026. The amendment supplements the changes made in August 2025 and relates to the registration of ICE Swap Trade LLC as a security-based swap execution facility (SBSEF). The amended and restated certificate of incorporation is filed as Exhibit 3.1 to the 8-K.

8-KMaterial agreementAug 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) amended its long-standing revolving credit facility (originally April 2014, now on its 10th+ amendment) on August 20, 2026. The specific changes to facility size, pricing, or maturity are not visible in the excerpt. This is a routine credit facility amendment by a large, investment-grade exchange operator; the amendment is administrative and not expected to represent a new material financial obligation.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 13424B5
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) priced $3.75 billion in senior notes across four tranches: $1.25B at 4.700% due 2029, $1.1B at 4.900% due 2031, $650M at 5.150% due 2033, and $750M at 5.400% due 2036, all accruing from August 20, 2026. The 2033 and 2036 notes carry special mandatory redemption provisions at 101% plus accrued interest if ICE's pending MarketAxess Holdings acquisition (announced July 29, 2026) does not close by July 29, 2027 (extendable to July 2028). Major deal-financing debt raise; the special mandatory redemption on $1.4B creates binary event risk tied to MarketAxess regulatory approval.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 11424B5
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) filed a prospectus supplement in connection with the pending acquisition of MarketAxess Holdings. Merger Sub (Igloo Merger Sub II) will merge into MarketAxess, surviving as a wholly owned ICE subsidiary, subject to MarketAxess stockholder approval and antitrust clearance. Specific notes offering terms are in the full prospectus.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ICE (ICE) entered into a material merger agreement with MarketAxess Holdings Inc. valued at $167.00 on 2026-07-30. Agreement and Plan of Merger Overview On July 29, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ ICE ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with MarketAxess Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ MarketAxess ”), and Igloo Merger Sub II, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidia. Additional items: 7.01. This is a material event requiring 8-K disclosure.

8-KShareholder voteMay 198-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) filed an 8-K on May 15, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). ICE is an Atlanta, Georgia-based financial market infrastructure and data services company listed on the NYSE. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Daniel E. Pinto filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed Director of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE), disclosing beneficial ownership effective May 15, 2026. The form reports no securities beneficially owned — both Table I (non-derivative) and Table II (derivative) are blank. This is a routine insider reporting obligation accompanying a new board appointment with no financial significance.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 4SC 13D/A
AI summary

INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ICE disclosing beneficial ownership (8,380,362.00 shares) as of 2026-05-04. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 7 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 routine 8-K · 1 proxy) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

5 Securities & Exchanges Stocks to Watch Amid Industry Headwindszacks.com·2d agoICE Brent Options Reach Record Traded Volume in Q3 2026 as Customers Manage Risk Across the Brent Curvebusinesswire.com·4d agoInvestors traded a record volume of ICE Brent options in third quarterreuters.com·4d agoSSA Commissioner Headlines Columbus Day at the NYSE: NYSE Content Updateprnewswire.com·5d agoNYSE Group Consolidated Short Interest Reportbusinesswire.com·8d ago

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