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ICICE

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

$ICE·$84B·Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges·Financial Services
$160.72-1.0%YTD-7.5%1Y-8.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 20 posts2026-08-22: 14 posts2026-08-23: 12 posts127-2%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 8d ago
ICICE
$ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc.
$160.72-0.99%127 posts-2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ICE, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Intercontinental Exchange trades at 17x forward — L1 Capital calling it cheapest since the GFC — while NYSE Texas HQ opens and mortgage delinquencies ease.

Intercontinental Exchange is the global regulated-exchange operator (NYSE, ICE Futures, ICE Bonds, ICE Mortgage Technology). It's a durable financial-infrastructure compounder that spent 2026 as an underperformer on AI-erosion and CFTC perpetual-futures concerns — those concerns look increasingly misplaced.

  • The operating story is genuinely solid: Q1 revenue grew 13.5% year-over-year to $3.67B, prior quarters ran -0.9% to +12.6%, with 81% gross margins and 39-45% operating margins — that's the compounder profile the multiple should support.
  • The valuation is at a company-history discount: at 20x trailing earnings and roughly 17x forward earnings (L1 Capital pitched this as 'a level we have not seen since the GFC' after the 21.7% Q2 drawdown), ICE trades cheaper than V or MA despite similar quality profile.
  • The specific catalysts continue to land: NYSE Texas HQ opened in Dallas (Aug 27) with over 120 listed securities worth $2T combined, ICE Mortgage Technology's monthly delinquency data (Aug 25) showed mortgage delinquencies easing in July as both new defaults and cure activity improved — real data on the mortgage-tech leg working.
  • The $3.75B senior-notes offering (Aug 20) plus a revolving-credit-facility amendment (Aug 21) rebalances the capital structure — that's the balance-sheet flexibility ICE uses for continued M&A (Black Knight completion, etc.) without touching equity.

The path if the re-rating catches is an Oct 29 Q3 print keeping the beat cadence plus continued mortgage-delinquency improvement — the tape breaks the acceleration and reprices toward the L1 Capital fair-value framing. What extends the cooling is a Q3 that shows exchange volumes stalling on macro concerns or a specific CFTC perpetual-futures decision that would validate the AI-erosion concerns; that's when the current 71% of 52-week range drifts sideways for another quarter.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — L1 Capital pitching ICE at a forward P/E 'around 17x, a level we have not seen since the GFC' after the 21.7% Q2 drawdown, arguing worries about AI eroding data-and-analytics demand and CFTC-authorised perpetual futures competition are misplaced, NYSE Texas opening its Dallas HQ with over 120 listed securities worth $2T combined, and one holder marking ICE +20% since the setup post — captures the value-anchored case precisely.

What to watch: The Oct 29 Q3 print — beat cadence continuing plus continued mortgage-delinquency improvement extends the acceleration; exchange-volume stalls or a specific CFTC perpetual-futures decision validating AI-erosion concerns is what drifts the tape sideways.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment11 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

The read on Intercontinental Exchange is bullish and value-anchored — L1 Capital pitched ICE at a forward P/E "around 17x, a level we have not seen since the GFC" after a 21.7% Q2 drawdown, arguing worries about AI eroding data-and-analytics demand and CFTC-authorised perpetual futures competition are misplaced. NYSE Texas just opened its Dallas HQ with over 120 listed securities worth $2T combined, and one holder marks ICE +20% since the setup post. Some off-topic crypto "$ICE" airdrop spam runs alongside.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ICE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates NYSE and ICE futures exchanges, clearing houses, mortgage technology, and bond market data services.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ICE.

Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · Financial Services

Trading volume — which directly drives exchange transaction revenue — is sustained by macro uncertainty and AI-driven algorithmic activity. Data and analytics subscriptions provide recurring revenue insulation from volume volatility.

What this means for $ICE

Partial — net interest margin and credit quality are the primary earnings drivers; Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

Industry benchmark

10-name peer basket
+3.3%YTD
+9.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
40.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
6.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
13.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
69.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$1.90$1.84+3.3%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$2.35$2.23+5.4%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$1.71$1.68+1.8%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$1.71$1.60+6.9%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $1.90

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.7B+13.5%81.2%45.4%$2.49$1.1B
Q4 FY25$3.1B+3.6%79.7%38.3%$1.49$1.1B
Q3 FY25$3.0B-0.9%56.8%39.0%$1.43$853.0M
Q2 FY25$3.3B+12.6%56.1%39.8%$1.49$1.4B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$11.0B$10.7B – $11.3B$8.03$7.86 – $8.317
FY27$11.6B$11.1B – $11.9B$8.74$8.22 – $9.209
FY28$12.3B$11.6B – $12.7B$9.70$8.85 – $10.178
FY29$12.9B$12.5B – $13.3B$10.68$10.20 – $11.087
FY30$14.2B$13.7B – $14.6B$12.65$12.08 – $13.137

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.71%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+12.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+4.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 557.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.935-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 20Douglas FoleySVP, HR & Administration1.6K sh$256KSellAug 19Warren GardinerCFO2.5K sh$389KSellAug 13Martha A TirinnanziDirector141 sh$22KSellAug 12Mayur KapaniCTO4.3K sh$646KSellAug 5Douglas FoleySVP, HR & Administration7.3K sh$1.1MSellJul 16Lynn C MartinPresident15.9K sh$2.2MSellJun 12Hague William JeffersonDirector1.3K sh$186KSellJun 9Hague William JeffersonDirector91 sh$13KSellMay 26Andrew J SurdykowskiGeneral Counsel4.6K sh$693KSellMay 22Sharon BowenDirector667 sh$101K
1–10 of 13
+ 18 other (10 awards · 5 exempts · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $ICE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) amended its long-standing revolving credit facility (originally April 2014, now on its 10th+ amendment) on August 20, 2026. The specific changes to facility size, pricing, or maturity are not visible in the excerpt. This is a routine credit facility amendment by a large, investment-grade exchange operator; the amendment is administrative and not expected to represent a new material financial obligation.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 13424B5
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) priced $3.75 billion in senior notes across four tranches: $1.25B at 4.700% due 2029, $1.1B at 4.900% due 2031, $650M at 5.150% due 2033, and $750M at 5.400% due 2036, all accruing from August 20, 2026. The 2033 and 2036 notes carry special mandatory redemption provisions at 101% plus accrued interest if ICE's pending MarketAxess Holdings acquisition (announced July 29, 2026) does not close by July 29, 2027 (extendable to July 2028). Major deal-financing debt raise; the special mandatory redemption on $1.4B creates binary event risk tied to MarketAxess regulatory approval.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 11424B5
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) filed a prospectus supplement in connection with the pending acquisition of MarketAxess Holdings. Merger Sub (Igloo Merger Sub II) will merge into MarketAxess, surviving as a wholly owned ICE subsidiary, subject to MarketAxess stockholder approval and antitrust clearance. Specific notes offering terms are in the full prospectus.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ICE (ICE) entered into a material merger agreement with MarketAxess Holdings Inc. valued at $167.00 on 2026-07-30. Agreement and Plan of Merger Overview On July 29, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ ICE ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with MarketAxess Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ MarketAxess ”), and Igloo Merger Sub II, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidia. Additional items: 7.01. This is a material event requiring 8-K disclosure.

8-KShareholder voteMay 198-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) filed an 8-K on May 15, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). ICE is an Atlanta, Georgia-based financial market infrastructure and data services company listed on the NYSE. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Daniel E. Pinto filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed Director of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE), disclosing beneficial ownership effective May 15, 2026. The form reports no securities beneficially owned — both Table I (non-derivative) and Table II (derivative) are blank. This is a routine insider reporting obligation accompanying a new board appointment with no financial significance.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 4SC 13D/A
AI summary

INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ICE disclosing beneficial ownership (8,380,362.00 shares) as of 2026-05-04. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMar 4SC 13D/A
+ 12 other (3 proxys · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

GE HealthCare unveils the next generation of the Vivid cardiovascular ultrasound portfolio, enabling advanced cardiac imaging across care settingsgurufocus.com·3d agoNYSE Texas Opens Headquarters in Dallas: NYSE Content Updateprnewswire.com·4d agoNYSE Texas Opens Headquarters at Old Parkland in Dallasbusinesswire.com·4d agoICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Ease in July as Both New Defaults and Cure Activity Improvebusinesswire.com·6d agoIs ICE Overvalued? DCF Says Worth $130gurufocus.com·6d ago

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