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CMCME

CME Group Inc.

$CME·$95B·Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges·Financial Services
$286.87+0.4%YTD-3.5%1Y+7.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 14 posts2026-08-22: 7 posts2026-08-23: 6 posts92+4%
Price updated 7m ago·X counts updated 8d ago
CMCME
$CMECME Group Inc.
$286.87+0.37%92 posts+4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CME, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

CME Group compounder — 86% gross margins, Q1 revenue +14.5%, and specific new products (wind-power contracts, single-stock futures) landing.

CME Group is the world's largest futures and options exchange — the specific chokepoint for interest-rate, agricultural, energy, and equity-derivatives risk transfer. The equity is up 7% T12M and has spent 2026 as a defensive-compounder that keeps quietly executing.

  • The operating story is genuinely elite: Q1 revenue grew 14.5% year-over-year to $1.88B with 86% gross margins and 66% operating margins — those numbers are close to unique in the S&P 500 for a business of this scale, and the last four EPS prints beat consensus by 0.7-2.7%.
  • The valuation is undemanding for the profile: at 22x trailing earnings and roughly 24x FY26 EPS with 66% operating margins, CME trades cheap for a category-monopoly-adjacent business — the FY27 consensus of $12+ EPS implies durable single-digit growth on high-quality mix.
  • The product innovation is genuinely happening: new wind-power contracts landing, single-stock futures expanding the derivatives menu, and the structural shift in Bitcoin leveraged-fund positioning from net short to net long — those are the specific product-mix drivers supporting FY27 growth beyond the base rate cycle.
  • Insider tape is functionally absent (zero reported events) — for a $95B mega-cap financial-infrastructure name, the neutral insider read is exactly the setup a stalled compounder needs before the multiple re-rate catches; the tape sitting 13% above the 50-day suggests that acceleration is starting.

The path if the run continues is an Oct 28 Q3 print keeping the beat cadence plus positive commentary on the wind-power and single-stock-futures product ramps — the tape breaks toward the $300+ area chart posters point to as an add zone. What breaks the run is a Q3 with volume weakness on futures trading or a fresh regulatory setback (CFTC perpetual-futures, etc.); that's when a stock at 61% of its 52-week range gives back to 200-day support 3% below spot as the beat cadence gets absorbed.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — CME as a chokepoint benefiting from new wind-power contracts, single-stock futures and a structural shift in Bitcoin leveraged-fund positioning from net short to net long, chart posters watching the 200-day and levels near $300 as add zones on any pullback, and a podcast-style thread with ICE tags treating the exchange complex as a compelling long-term compounder — captures the accelerating-compounder setup exactly.

What to watch: The Oct 28 Q3 print — beat cadence continuing plus positive commentary on wind-power and single-stock-futures product ramps extends toward $300+; futures-volume weakness or a fresh regulatory setback is what gives back to 200-day support.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

The tone is quietly constructive, framing CME as a chokepoint benefiting from new wind-power contracts, single-stock futures and a structural shift in Bitcoin leveraged-fund positioning from net short to net long. Chart posters watch the 200-day and levels near $300 as add zones on any pullback, and a podcast-style thread with ICE tags treats the exchange complex as a compelling long-term compounder. Nothing bearish surfaces in the window.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CME

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates the world's largest derivatives exchange for futures and options on rates, equity indexes, energy, and commodities.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CME.

Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · Financial Services

Trading volume — which directly drives exchange transaction revenue — is sustained by macro uncertainty and AI-driven algorithmic activity. Data and analytics subscriptions provide recurring revenue insulation from volume volatility.

What this means for $CME

Partial — net interest margin and credit quality are the primary earnings drivers; CME Group Inc.

Industry benchmark

10-name peer basket
+2.9%YTD
+7.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
21.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
9.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
65.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
13.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
86.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 22, 2026$2.99$2.91+2.7%
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$3.36$3.34+0.6%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$2.77$2.75+0.7%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$2.68$2.63+1.9%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $2.96

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.9B+14.5%88.1%69.7%$3.25$1.2B
Q4 FY25$1.6B+8.1%85.4%61.8%$3.25$1.1B
Q3 FY25$1.5B-3.0%84.5%63.3%$2.49$949.7M
Q2 FY25$1.7B+10.4%86.9%66.7%$2.81$1.0B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$7.0B$7.0B – $7.1B$12.25$12.07 – $12.6011
FY27$7.4B$7.0B – $7.6B$12.92$12.18 – $13.3411
FY28$7.9B$7.4B – $8.2B$13.86$13.20 – $14.278
FY29$8.5B$8.1B – $8.8B$14.99$14.26 – $15.687
FY30$8.7B$8.4B – $9.0B$16.05$15.27 – $16.787

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.61%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+12.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+2.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 354.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.275-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 25William R ShepardDirector339 sh$78KSellMay 18Piell Hilda HarrisSr MD & Chief HR Officer5.8K sh$1.8MSellMay 15Terrence A DuffyCEO35.0K sh$10.4MBuyMar 26William R ShepardDirector1.5K sh$437KSellMar 17Jonathan L MarcusSr MD General Counsel3.3K sh$1.0MSellMar 17Jonathan L MarcusSr MD General Counsel3.3K sh$1.1MSellMar 12Ken VromanChief Transformation Officer5.2K sh$1.6MSellMar 6Elizabeth A CookDirector1.0K sh$320K
+ 42 other (29 awards · 11 inkinds · 1 other · 1 gift) in window

See when $CME insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 118-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CME Group (CME) filed an 8-K disclosing that on August 11, 2026 it communicated pricing changes to clients via Special Executive Report No. 9799. A copy of the notice was posted to the company's website. No specific pricing details are included in the 8-K body. The information is furnished under Regulation FD and is not filed for Exchange Act Section 18 liability purposes.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CME Group Inc. filed an 8-K (Items 5.02, 7.01) dated June 16, 2026, reporting a director/officer change alongside Reg FD presentation materials. The excerpt contains only cover-page boilerplate with no officer names or presentation topic visible. The Reg FD filing suggests an investor presentation was shared, likely related to the leadership transition; this is routine unless the officer change involves a C-suite departure.

8-KShareholder voteJun 108-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CME Group reconvened its adjourned 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026 to address Items 4–8 that originally lacked quorum among Class B holders. Item 4 — a proposal to eliminate the right of Class B-1 shareholders to elect three directors — did not pass; Class B-3 shares failed to reach quorum again on Items 6 and 8c. CME's tiered Class B governance structure remains intact; the failed vote to curtail Class B-1 election rights signals that Class B holders are protecting their disproportionate board influence.

8-KShareholder voteMay 198-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CME Group held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 14, 2026, with 318.5 million shares (87.78% of Classes A and B) represented. Equity director nominees were elected (including Terrence Duffy with 267.9M for), but Class B-1, B-2, B-3, and B-4 shareholders all failed to reach the required 33.3% quorum threshold (Class B-3 participation was as low as 24.16%). As a result, proposals 4-8 were adjourned to a special meeting scheduled for June 9, 2026. The adjournment signals meaningfully low Class B shareholder engagement and defers important governance items specific to CME's exchange membership structure.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 278-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

CME entered into a amendment (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-27). Counterparty: Bank of America, N.A., in its capacity as Administrative Agent, Citibank, N.A.. Size: approximately $7 billion. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 15 other (5 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

5 Safe Dividend Stocks Retirees Can Rely On247wallst.com·3d agoOptions Trades in CME & MRVL as NVDA Lifts Tech Sectoryoutube.com·4d agoCME Group (NASDAQ:CME) vs. KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) Critical Surveydefenseworld.net·5d agoCME Group Enters Wind Market with Contracts Designed for Renewable Energy Hedgingprnewswire.com·5d agoCME on Single Stock Futures Launch, Using NVDA into Earningsyoutube.com·6d ago

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