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TickerTalks›$CME
CMCME

CME Group Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 14% YoY at strong marginsRecent insider buyingConsistent chatter on X (118/wk), no spike
$CME·$106B·Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges·Financial Services
$293.87+1.5%YTD+6.3%1Y+11.9%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
CMCME
$CMECME Group Inc.
$293.87+1.52%118 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $CME on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

118X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $CME's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data10 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

$CME in this window is the Robinhood-chain commodity launchpad, not CME Group. Traders lay out a flywheel where memes get paired with tokenized commodities — corn, gold, oil, natural gas — and fees feed buybacks and burns of $CME. Whale holder overlap with PONS, AI, and CASHCAT gets treated as validation. The one risk any bull acknowledges is that this is brand-new infrastructure, but no one takes the other side.

Read what X is saying about $CME

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $CME — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

A toll-booth on the world's derivatives market, trading at a reasonable multiple into an Oct 21 earnings print.

CME Group runs the world's largest derivatives exchange — futures and options on everything from interest rates to grains to crypto. It's a toll-booth business with network effects and a 65% operating margin.

  • The economics are enviable: Q1 revenue grew 14% YoY at a ~70% operating margin — exchange volumes are up with the rates and crypto complex, and roughly every incremental contract traded flows to margin.
  • The multiple is reasonable for the quality: 21.8x PE and 14x sales with ROIC near 10% — not cheap, not expensive, trading like what it is.
  • Volume multiplier is 1.19 ahead of the Oct 21 earnings print — the market is positioning rather than committing, and the setup is tight into the number.

Oct 21 is the moment — continuation of double-digit revenue growth and sustained rates-complex volumes supports a push toward the top of the range. A soft rates-complex quarter or any seasonal-cooling commentary and this one holds the middle.

What to watch: Oct 21 Q3 earnings — rates-complex volumes, crypto-futures growth, and any guidance update. Soft rates volume would stall the setup; broad-based volume strength breaks the range higher.

On the calendar: 2026-10-21 — Q3 earnings

cashtag collision

Read the AI verdict on $CME

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates the world's largest derivatives exchange for futures and options on rates, equity indexes, energy, and commodities.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CME.

Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · Financial Services

No material change from last week — COIN cited as bullish setup with CEO forecasting $400K Bitcoin by 2030.

What this means for $CME

Partial — Operates the world's largest derivatives exchange for futures and options on rates, equity indexes, energy, and commodities.

Industry benchmark

7-name peer basket
-12.3%YTD
-5.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
21.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
9.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
65.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
13.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
86.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 22, 2026$2.99$2.91+2.7%
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$3.36$3.34+0.6%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$2.77$2.75+0.7%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$2.68$2.63+1.9%
Next earningsWed, Oct 21·consensus EPS $2.98

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.9B+14.5%88.1%69.7%$3.25$1.2B
Q4 FY25$1.6B+8.1%85.4%61.8%$3.25$1.1B
Q3 FY25$1.5B-3.0%84.5%63.3%$2.49$949.7M
Q2 FY25$1.7B+10.4%86.9%66.7%$2.81$1.0B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$7.0B$7.0B – $7.2B$12.27$12.14 – $12.3912
FY27$7.4B$7.1B – $7.5B$12.96$12.12 – $13.7312
FY28$7.9B$7.5B – $8.1B$13.97$13.07 – $14.659
FY29$8.5B$8.2B – $8.7B$15.19$14.58 – $15.654
FY30$8.8B$8.5B – $9.0B$16.80$16.13 – $17.314

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.68%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+7.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+5.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 354.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.275-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuySep 25William R ShepardDirector293 sh$79KSellSep 14Elizabeth A CookDirector500 sh$140KSellSep 10Terrence A DuffyCEO15.0K sh$4.1MBuyJun 25William R ShepardDirector339 sh$78KSellMay 18Piell Hilda HarrisSr MD & Chief HR Officer5.8K sh$1.8MSellMay 15Terrence A DuffyCEO35.0K sh$10.4M
+ 51 other (29 awards · 19 inkinds · 3 others) in window

See when $CME insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KCharter amendmentSep 258-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

CME Group Inc. filed a Certificate of Elimination with the State of Delaware to formally eliminate its Series G Non-Voting Convertible Preferred Stock from its certificate of incorporation. The elimination was made because no shares of Series G preferred stock were issued or outstanding, making this an administrative cleanup of CME's capital structure documentation. This action removes a dormant security class from CME's authorized share structure, simplifying its corporate capitalization. No economic impact is associated with this filing as no shares of the eliminated series were ever issued.

3New insider — initial holdingsSep 143
AI summary

John Clifford Marchese, Senior MD and General Counsel of CME Group (CME), filed an initial Form 3 as of September 14, 2026, disclosing direct ownership of 3,055 shares of CME Group Class A common stock. This is the required initial Section 16 disclosure when a new officer becomes a reporting person. No options or other derivative securities are reported. Future Form 4 filings will track subsequent changes to Marchese's CME position.

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 98-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

CME Group (CME) announced a two-step leadership transition: Jack Tobin (age 63) becomes Deputy CFO November 2, 2026 and then CFO in March 2027 when Lynne Fitzpatrick becomes CEO; Matthew Render (age 47) becomes Chief Accounting Officer on November 2, 2026. The phased plan coordinates CFO succession with the incoming CEO change.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 118-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CME Group (CME) filed an 8-K disclosing that on August 11, 2026 it communicated pricing changes to clients via Special Executive Report No. 9799. A copy of the notice was posted to the company's website. No specific pricing details are included in the 8-K body. The information is furnished under Regulation FD and is not filed for Exchange Act Section 18 liability purposes.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CME Group Inc. filed an 8-K (Items 5.02, 7.01) dated June 16, 2026, reporting a director/officer change alongside Reg FD presentation materials. The excerpt contains only cover-page boilerplate with no officer names or presentation topic visible. The Reg FD filing suggests an investor presentation was shared, likely related to the leadership transition; this is routine unless the officer change involves a C-suite departure.

8-KShareholder voteJun 108-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CME Group reconvened its adjourned 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026 to address Items 4–8 that originally lacked quorum among Class B holders. Item 4 — a proposal to eliminate the right of Class B-1 shareholders to elect three directors — did not pass; Class B-3 shares failed to reach quorum again on Items 6 and 8c. CME's tiered Class B governance structure remains intact; the failed vote to curtail Class B-1 election rights signals that Class B holders are protecting their disproportionate board influence.

8-KShareholder voteMay 198-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CME Group held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 14, 2026, with 318.5 million shares (87.78% of Classes A and B) represented. Equity director nominees were elected (including Terrence Duffy with 267.9M for), but Class B-1, B-2, B-3, and B-4 shareholders all failed to reach the required 33.3% quorum threshold (Class B-3 participation was as low as 24.16%). As a result, proposals 4-8 were adjourned to a special meeting scheduled for June 9, 2026. The adjournment signals meaningfully low Class B shareholder engagement and defers important governance items specific to CME's exchange membership structure.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 278-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

CME entered into a amendment (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-27). Counterparty: Bank of America, N.A., in its capacity as Administrative Agent, Citibank, N.A.. Size: approximately $7 billion. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 6 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 proxy · 1 13G) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Better Buy After the Rebound: Chainlink or Bitcoin? One Is Up 13% This Month.247wallst.com·17h agoAhead of CME (CME) Q3 Earnings: Get Ready With Wall Street Estimates for Key Metricszacks.com·18h agoI'd Turn $100,000 Into $6,200 A Year Of Retirement Incomeseekingalpha.com·21h agoCME Is Launching Uniswap and Bitcoin Cash Futures. Do Futures Actually Move Prices?247wallst.com·22h agoFocus Financial Network Inc. Purchases New Position in CME Group Inc. $CMEdefenseworld.net·23h ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CME on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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