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THTHCH

TH International Limited

$THCH·$57M·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$1.59-1.2%YTD-26.5%1Y-38.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-07: 0 posts2026-08-08: 0 posts2026-08-09: 0 posts2026-08-10: 27 posts2026-08-11: 0 posts2026-08-12: 0 posts2026-08-13: 0 posts27-7%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
THTHCH
$THCHTH International Limited
$1.59-1.24%27 posts-7%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $THCH, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-14

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Tims Hortons China running $250-350M/quarter with EPS losses of -$2.24 to -$6.92 and a fresh CEO change — the balance sheet is thin and Aug 18 print is the near-term event.

TH International (Tims China)'s four-quarter revenue is $255M → $304M → $358M → $349M with EPS -$3.37 to -$6.92 and gross margin collapsing from 17% to 2–3% — the operating leverage has gone the wrong way, and debt/equity of -1.46 means book equity is negative.

  • Consensus is 1 analyst modeling FY26 revenue $1.47B / EPS -$4.73 — the coverage vacuum plus a $1.60 tape price mean any print or announcement will move the equity meaningfully in either direction.
  • -39% over 12 months, -27% YTD, position 18% of 52-week range, -8% below 50-day, -23% below 200-day, beta 0.50 — bombed out but the low beta obscures that this is a China-consumer / franchise-execution story, not a systematic-market read.
  • Kwok Wah Cheung was just appointed CEO — new leadership on a broken chart is either the catalyst for a strategic reset or another turnover on a management bench that hasn't stabilized; float 8.7M means small position moves the tape.

Next print 2026-08-18 is the near-term event: cash runway, store-count trajectory, SSS direction, and any commentary from the new CEO on strategic pivot.

What to watch: August 18 Q1 print — cash runway, SSS trajectory, store-count net change, gross-margin direction from Q1's 2%, and new CEO's strategic plan.

On the calendar: 2026-08-18 — Q1 2026 earnings

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $THCH

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operator of Tim Hortons coffee shops in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau under a franchise from Restaurant Brands International.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $THCH.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Food input cost inflation is the margin headwind across the sector; Cracker Barrel's turnaround narrative and CAVA's Mediterranean expansion are the two..

What this means for $THCH

Neutral — Operator of Tim Hortons coffee shops in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau under a franchise from Restaurant Brands International; limited read-through from restaurants macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

21-name peer basket
+23.7%YTD
+16.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-0.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-38.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-19.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
42.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
10.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 9, 2026$-0.49$-0.21-134.6%
Q1 2026Apr 14, 2026$-1.00$-0.19-426.9%
Q3 2025Dec 9, 2025$-0.23$-0.14-59.0%
Q2 2025Aug 26, 2025$-0.17$-0.17+1.0%
Next earningsTue, Aug 18·consensus EPS $-0.25

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$255.2M-15.1%2.2%-25.8%$-3.37—
Q4 FY25$304.2M-8.5%3.1%-28.2%$-6.92$-6.1M
Q3 FY25$358.0M-0.4%17.4%-15.5%$-2.24$-1.7M
Q2 FY25$349.0M-4.9%17.2%-10.9%$-2.32$-1.2M

Forward consensus

1-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.5B$1.5B – $1.5B-$4.73-$4.73 – -$4.731

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.17%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-8.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-23.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatTiny float · 8.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.505-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 133
3New insider — initial holdingsApr 93
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsApr 33/A
3New insider — initial holdingsApr 23
3New insider — initial holdingsApr 13
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 303
+ 13 other (4 6-Ks · 3 3s · 1 20-F · 1 EFFECT) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

TH International Limited (THCH) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·68d agoTH International Q1 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·68d agoTims China Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com·68d agoTims China Announces Appointment of Mr. Kwok Wah Cheung as Chief Executive Officer and Issuance of Additional Senior Secured Convertible Notesglobenewswire.com·68d agoTims China to Announce First Quarter 2026 Financial Results on June 9, 2026globenewswire.com·76d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $THCH on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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