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SASAFT

Safety Insurance Group, Inc.

$SAFT·$1.5B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$103.03+0.0%YTD+32.4%1Y+47.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-21: 2 posts2026-07-22: 0 posts2026-07-23: 20 posts2026-07-24: 116 posts2026-07-25: 9 posts2026-07-26: 5 posts2026-07-27: 19 posts171+7%
Price updated 21m ago·X counts updated 22h ago
SASAFT
$SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.
$103.03+0.03%171 posts+7%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SAFT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-27

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

The regional insurer is at 99% of range with a fresh M&A class-action investigation — August 5 earnings comes second to that.

Safety Insurance is a Massachusetts-focused personal-and-commercial P&C insurer — auto, home, and commercial lines primarily in MA. Just hit a fresh 52-week high on unusual 12x volume with an M&A class-action investigation launched.

  • Q1 was actually weak: revenue grew 5% YoY to $315M, but gross margin dropped to 21% and operating margin turned negative at -6% (EPS -$0.99) — the property/casualty loss ratio wobbled significantly in Q1.
  • Q4'25 was much stronger: revenue $315M at 34% gross margin and 8% operating margin (EPS $1.38) — the setup is genuinely lumpy quarter-to-quarter driven by weather-related loss experience.
  • The M&A class-action investigation is a real catalyst: 'Shareholder Alert' from the M&A Class Action Firm announcing an investigation is the type of pre-M&A stock-run tell that often precedes actual bid disclosure.
  • Setup is at 52-week highs with anomalous volume: shares at 99% of the 52-week range, 41% above the 50-day, 38% above the 200-day, with 12x normal volume flagged — SRB CORP (a large holder) has sold ~$3.2M across three July transactions, likely into the M&A rumour flow.

August 5 is the referee, but the real catalyst is any M&A announcement or investigation-related disclosure. A concrete M&A announcement at a premium to current sustains the +33% YTD move; no M&A activity plus another weather-related Q2 loss-ratio wobble could see the tape give back much of the recent gain. The 12x volume spike is telling you something.

What to watch: August 5 Q2 earnings, plus any incremental M&A-related news: watch reported loss ratio and combined ratio, any M&A announcement or investigation-related update, and whether the 12x volume spike persists; a concrete M&A announcement is the primary catalyst.

On the calendar: 2026-08-05 — Q2 earnings

m and a class action setupat 52w highanomalous volume spike

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a U.S.-based insurance provider offering a diverse range of personal and commercial coverage. The company's private passenger automobile policies furnish protection against third-party bodily injury and property damage liability, no-fault personal injury benefits for policyholders and their passengers, and physical damage insurance for the insured's own vehicle, covering impacts and other specific risks. Furthermore, it underwrites commercial automobile policies, designed for business-use vehicles ranging from passenger cars to trucks, tractors, and trailers, covering both individual units and entire fleets. For property owners, Safety Insurance offers homeowner policies that safeguard houses, condominiums, and apartments against damage to the structure and its contents from various perils, alongside liability coverage stemming from property ownership or occupation. The firm also extends its offerings to business owners policies, catering to diverse commercial operations such as apartment complexes, residential condominium associations, dining establishments, office condominiums, processing and service businesses, specialized trade contractors, and wholesalers. Beyond standard coverage, the company provides personal umbrella policies, which offer additional liability protection extending beyond the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner insurance. It also underwrites commercial umbrella policies and dwelling fire insurance specifically for properties not occupied by their owners. Complementing these, Safety Insurance includes inland marine coverage as an option within its homeowner and business owner policies, and furnishes insurance for small to medium-sized recreational watercraft. The distribution of all its insurance products is managed through a network of independent agents. Established in 1979 and headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, the company was formerly known as Safety Holdings Inc. before officially changing its name to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. in April 2002.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SAFT.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — climate-driven cat events push combined ratios higher across P&C underwriters, keeping reinsurance costs sticky even as rate cycles moderate.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+7.7%YTD
+13.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
24.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
6.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
11.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
7.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
32.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.72$1.45-149.7%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$1.51$1.28+18.0%
Q3 2025Nov 3, 2025$1.48$1.80-17.8%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$1.45$1.60-9.4%
Next earningsWed, Aug 5·consensus EPS $2.00

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$315.0M+5.1%21.4%-5.7%$-0.99$-18.9M
Q4 FY25$315.3M+10.7%34.1%8.1%$1.38$71.4M
Q3 FY25$323.2M+11.0%36.6%11.2%$1.91$85.5M
Q2 FY25$315.9M+18.2%38.5%11.7%$1.95$32.3M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.4B$1.4B – $1.4B$4.75$4.75 – $4.751
FY27$1.5B$1.5B – $1.5B$6.75$6.75 – $6.751

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.10.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.99%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+39.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+37.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 14.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today13.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.225-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 24Corp Srb10% owner38.8K sh$4.0MSellJul 17Corp Srb10% owner5.2K sh$392KSellJul 13Corp Srb10% owner34.3K sh$2.6MSellJul 9Corp Srb10% owner2.6K sh$203KSellMar 20Corp Srb10% owner14.2K sh$1.0MSellMar 17Corp Srb10% owner1.2K sh$88K
+ 27 other (16 inkinds · 6 awards · 5 others) in window

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  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (Delaware; Boston, MA) filed an 8-K on July 23, 2026 under Item 1.01 disclosing entry into a material definitive agreement, with the 'soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12' checkbox checked — indicating this agreement requires a shareholder vote, strongly suggesting a merger or acquisition transaction. The body excerpt contains only the cover page without agreement terms. The counterparty, deal structure, price, and closing conditions are in the attached exhibits.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 238-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. filed an 8-K on July 23, 2026 under Item 7.01 (Reg FD disclosure), also checked as soliciting material per Rule 14a-12, confirming this disclosure is part of the merger-related shareholder communication campaign signaled by the concurrent Item 1.01 filing. The body excerpt contains only the cover page. The investor presentation furnished under Reg FD — likely outlining the proposed merger transaction — is in the attached exhibit.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 158-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. filed an 8-K on June 9, 2026 under Items 1.01 (material definitive agreement) and 2.03 (creation of a direct financial obligation). The combination of a new agreement with a new direct financial obligation indicates the company entered a credit facility, term loan, or other debt arrangement. This filing predates the later July 2026 merger-related filings and likely represents a separate financing transaction; lender, amount, terms, and maturity are in the attached exhibits.

8-KShareholder voteMay 148-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 16 other (6 proxys · 5 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Safety Insurance Group (NASDAQ:SAFT) Sets New 1-Year High – Should You Buy?defenseworld.net·3d ago$HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Announces An Investigation of Safety Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFT)gurufocus.com·4d ago$HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Announces An Investigation of Safety Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFT)prnewswire.com·4d agoSAFT Stock Alert: Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether Safety Insurance Group Inc. is Obtaining a Fair Price for its Shareholdersbusinesswire.com·5d agoShareholder Alert: Ademi LLP investigates whether Safety Insurance Group, Inc. is obtaining a Fair Price for Public Shareholdersgurufocus.com·5d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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