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ALALL

The Allstate Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 4% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (146/wk), no spike
$ALL·$59B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$247.88+3.5%YTD+15.7%1Y+27.2%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ALALL
$ALLThe Allstate Corporation
$247.88+3.46%146 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $ALL on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

146X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ALL's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bearish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-01

Sentiment leans bearish, with traders taking short entries around $258.35 and citing a 'Batman Top' pattern that echoes shorts already stacking against fellow life insurer MFC. The message repeats that Allstate looks like a life-insurer short setup ready to break. A separate strand is unrelated Chiliz fan-token Socios poll spam that doesn't move the equity narrative. The real Allstate discussion is one-sided against the stock in this sample, with no visible bull pushback.

Read what X is saying about $ALL

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ALL — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Allstate trades at 5x earnings and the X thread is calling a top — the setup is less dramatic than the shorts suggest.

Allstate is a US personal-lines insurer — auto, home, and life. The business has been in a classic insurance up-cycle as premium rates passed loss trends, and the stock has been one of the quieter winners.

  • The economics look great: PE 5.4, operating margin 23%, ROIC 31% — a cheap-looking insurer earning real returns, with Q1 revenue +4% YoY, which is strong for personal-lines.
  • 52-week range position is 41% with vol multiplier 1.42 — in the middle of the range on elevated volume, which is typical for insurance when the market is debating whether the pricing cycle has peaked.
  • The bear case is specific: traders calling a "Batman Top" pattern echoing MFC-style life-insurer shorts — the risk is that reserving redundancy fades as pricing eases, not that fundamentals are breaking today.

Nov 4 Q3 is the gate — any sign that combined ratio is cooperating plus continued premium growth keeps this cheap-insurance thesis intact. A sudden adverse development on prior-year reserves or any CAT event would be the clear negative.

Differs from X sentimentThe bear thread has a defensible pattern read but the fundamentals do not back a short setup here — Allstate's PE of 5.4 and ROIC of 31% leave meaningful room before pricing-cycle concerns matter, and the chart is still mid-range rather than extended.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 — combined ratio, auto premium growth, prior-year reserve development, and any CAT exposure. Adverse reserve development or a soft premium print is the real invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ALL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Major U.S. property-casualty insurer offering personal auto, homeowners, and commercial coverage through agents and direct channels.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ALL.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — Hard P&C pricing cycle with premium rates still outpacing loss-cost inflation and elevated investment yields remain the twin earnings drivers.

What this means for $ALL

Neutral — Major U.S. property-casualty insurer offering personal auto, homeowners, and commercial coverage through agents and direct channels.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+1.1%YTD
+11.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
5.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
31.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
23.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
17.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
42.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
39.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$8.99$6.06+48.3%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$10.65$7.31+45.7%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$14.31$9.83+45.6%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$11.17$7.67+45.6%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $6.86

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$16.9B+4.2%45.3%18.9%$9.36$3.5B
Q4 FY25$16.6B+1.5%53.0%29.6%$14.55$2.9B
Q3 FY25$17.1B+3.4%36.6%28.2%$14.13$3.2B
Q2 FY25$16.5B+5.9%24.4%16.3%$7.86$1.9B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$61.0B$60.6B – $61.5B$35.50$32.31 – $37.846
FY27$62.1B$61.0B – $63.8B$28.01$24.89 – $33.536
FY28$64.1B$60.2B – $67.7B$26.60$23.69 – $28.768

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.67%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 251.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.145-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 11Mario RizzoCOO56.2K sh$14.9MSellAug 7John E DugenskePres, Invest. & Corp. Strategy33.0K sh$8.9MSellJun 1Andrea RedmondDirector2.2K sh$451KSellMay 22Mark Q PrindivilleFormer Section 16 officer1.6K sh$335KSellMay 1Mario RizzoCOO18.6K sh$4.1M
+ 42 other (18 awards · 15 exempts · 7 inkinds · 2 gifts) in window

See when $ALL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDOct 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDSep 178-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation published its July 2026 monthly estimated catastrophe loss release via Reg FD, posting to allstateinvestors.com and attaching it as Exhibit 99. The specific dollar amount of estimated catastrophe losses for July 2026 is in the attached exhibit and not reproduced in the filing body. This is a routine monthly disclosure that helps investors monitor Allstate's property-casualty underwriting exposure; the actual figure is the key data point for investors.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 133
AI summary

Christian M. Lown filed a Form 3 on August 13, 2026, reporting his initial beneficial ownership of securities in Allstate Corporation (ALL) upon joining as Chief Financial Officer. The filing indicates no securities are directly owned at the time of filing, which is common for newly appointed officers who have not yet received equity grants or purchased shares. Form 3 must be filed within 10 days of becoming an officer or director. The disclosure establishes Lown's reporting baseline for future Form 4 transactions.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 168-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation filed a Reg FD disclosure on July 16, 2026, releasing its June 2026 estimated catastrophe loss report (posted on allstateinvestors.com as Exhibit 99). No specific dollar loss figures appear in the body excerpt. Routine monthly catastrophe disclosure for Allstate's insurance investor base tracking seasonal loss run trends.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation announced that Christian M. Lown (age 56) will join as Executive Vice President and CFO effective August 3, 2026, bringing experience as CFO of CoStar Group (July 2024-July 2026) and EVP/CFO of Freddie Mac (June 2020-June 2024). His compensation package includes 75,000 annual base salary, a 200% of salary target cash bonus, and 375% of salary equity incentive opportunity. The same filing includes Allstate's July 2026 catastrophe loss update. A high-profile CFO hire from real estate data and mortgage finance signaling financial leadership continuity.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 188-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation filed a Reg FD disclosure on June 18, 2026, releasing its May 2026 estimated catastrophe losses and policies-in-force report (posted on allstateinvestors.com as Exhibit 99). No specific dollar loss figures appear in the body excerpt. Routine monthly catastrophe and policy count disclosure for Allstate's investor base.

8-KShareholder voteMay 278-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation held its annual stockholders' meeting on May 22, 2026, electing 11 directors for one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting; all nominees passed with majority votes, with 27.2M broker non-votes. Notable against votes include 17.1M against Andrea Redmond, 10.8M against Siddharth N. Mehta, and 9.3M against Kermit R. Crawford out of ~200M votes cast. Routine annual governance vote with no contested seats but notable minority opposition to certain incumbents.

+ 10 other (2 13Fs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Traffic data pioneer Inrix to be acquired by Allstate's Arity after more than two decadesgeekwire.com·11h agoHere's Why Allstate (ALL) is a Strong Growth Stockzacks.com·2d agoSeptember 2026 Monthly Releaseprnewswire.com·2d agoThe Allstate Corporation $ALL Stock: Krilogy Financial LLC Raises Holdingsdefenseworld.net·2d agoBerkshire Hathaway vs. Allstate: Which Insurance Stock Has an Edge?zacks.com·3d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ALL on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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