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ALALL

The Allstate Corporation

$ALL·$69B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$257.80-1.1%YTD+27.6%1Y+26.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 4 posts2026-08-23: 4 posts52+2%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
ALALL
$ALLThe Allstate Corporation
$257.80-1.07%52 posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ALL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Allstate — Q2 EPS beat by 48% and PE only 5.4x, but X traders are short-calling it at $258 as a Batman-top pattern spreading through life insurers.

The Allstate Corporation is one of the largest US property-and-casualty insurers, with auto/home the core lines. The equity is a value-plus-momentum name where the fundamental picture is strong but the tape sentiment has turned cautious.

  • Q2 2026 EPS of $8.99 beat $6.06 consensus by 48%, and the beat pattern is consistent — the last four surprises were +48%, +46%, +46%, +46%, meaning consensus has systematically underestimated Allstate's earnings power through the current pricing cycle.
  • Fundamentals are exceptional: P/E 5.4, P/S 0.96, ROIC 31%, ROE 43%, FCF yield 18%, EV/EBITDA 4.3, debt/equity 0.24 — this screens like a value trap on multiple alone but the ROIC/ROE point at real franchise earnings, not accounting.
  • Insider selling is heavy and cluster-shaped: CFO Rizzo sold $14.9M on Aug 11, Dugenske sold $8.9M on Aug 7, and the July filings show a full CFO transition (outgoing CFO Rizzo, incoming Christian Lown from CoStar) — leadership change plus outsized selling is a real 'informed selling' signal, though CFO transitions often force insider windows to close.
  • The X sentiment is bearish and specific — a trader opened short at $258.35 citing a 'Batman-top' pattern spreading through life insurers including MFC — a chart-driven call rather than a fundamental thesis, but a real read that momentum has cracked.

What extends the pullback is a hurricane-season catastrophe loss above the monthly disclosure trend plus continued auto-frequency normalization — both compress the 48% beat pattern the multiple secretly depends on. What resets the tape higher is a benign hurricane season through October plus the Nov 4 print holding EPS above $6.54, which would ratify the 5x P/E as a genuine mispricing.

Differs from X sentimentThe bearish X take — trader opening short at $258.35, Batman-top pattern spreading through life insurers including MFC — is chart-driven and picks up the momentum crack but underweights the 48% EPS beat streak and the 5.4 P/E; the fundamental setup is stronger than the technical sentiment reflects.

What to watch: Hurricane-season catastrophe loss above the monthly disclosure trend plus auto-frequency normalization extends the pullback; benign hurricane season through October plus Nov 4 EPS above $6.54 ratifies the 5x P/E mispricing.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bearish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

The conversation splits between two unrelated ALL threads: Socios fan-token poll promotion contributes most of the noise, while the genuine equity chatter is bearish and technical — one trader shorts Allstate at $258.35, calling out a "Batman Top" and grouping it with life insurer MFC as a short setup. Substantive discussion of the underwriting business is absent.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ALL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Major U.S. property-casualty insurer offering personal auto, homeowners, and commercial coverage through agents and direct channels.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ALL.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

Catastrophe losses remain the primary risk factor; climate-driven severity trends are pushing reinsurance pricing higher, which eventually filters into primary premiums. Rate hardening is allowing combined ratios to recover from loss-elevated troughs.

What this means for $ALL

Partial — insurance earnings follow combined ratio and investment income dynamics, partially correlated to industry macro; The Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a compreh.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+7.7%YTD
+7.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
5.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
31.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
23.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
17.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
42.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
39.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$8.99$6.06+48.3%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$10.65$7.31+45.7%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$14.31$9.83+45.6%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$11.17$7.67+45.6%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $6.54

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$16.9B+4.2%45.3%18.9%$9.36$3.5B
Q4 FY25$16.6B+1.5%53.0%29.6%$14.55$2.9B
Q3 FY25$17.1B+3.4%36.6%28.2%$14.13$3.2B
Q2 FY25$16.5B+5.9%24.4%16.3%$7.86$1.9B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$62.1B$61.3B – $62.6B$31.34$25.98 – $35.955
FY27$64.9B$64.6B – $65.3B$26.36$23.81 – $31.605
FY28$65.9B$63.9B – $68.7B$25.95$23.67 – $28.115

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.78%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 255.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.165-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 11Mario RizzoCOO56.2K sh$14.9MSellAug 7John E DugenskePres, Invest. & Corp. Strategy33.0K sh$8.9MSellJun 1Andrea RedmondDirector2.2K sh$451KSellMay 22Mark Q PrindivilleFormer Section 16 officer1.6K sh$335KSellMay 1Mario RizzoCOO18.6K sh$4.1M
+ 31 other (16 awards · 11 exempts · 2 inkinds · 2 gifts) in window

See when $ALL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation published its July 2026 monthly estimated catastrophe loss release via Reg FD, posting to allstateinvestors.com and attaching it as Exhibit 99. The specific dollar amount of estimated catastrophe losses for July 2026 is in the attached exhibit and not reproduced in the filing body. This is a routine monthly disclosure that helps investors monitor Allstate's property-casualty underwriting exposure; the actual figure is the key data point for investors.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 133
AI summary

Christian M. Lown filed a Form 3 on August 13, 2026, reporting his initial beneficial ownership of securities in Allstate Corporation (ALL) upon joining as Chief Financial Officer. The filing indicates no securities are directly owned at the time of filing, which is common for newly appointed officers who have not yet received equity grants or purchased shares. Form 3 must be filed within 10 days of becoming an officer or director. The disclosure establishes Lown's reporting baseline for future Form 4 transactions.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 168-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation filed a Reg FD disclosure on July 16, 2026, releasing its June 2026 estimated catastrophe loss report (posted on allstateinvestors.com as Exhibit 99). No specific dollar loss figures appear in the body excerpt. Routine monthly catastrophe disclosure for Allstate's insurance investor base tracking seasonal loss run trends.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation announced that Christian M. Lown (age 56) will join as Executive Vice President and CFO effective August 3, 2026, bringing experience as CFO of CoStar Group (July 2024-July 2026) and EVP/CFO of Freddie Mac (June 2020-June 2024). His compensation package includes 75,000 annual base salary, a 200% of salary target cash bonus, and 375% of salary equity incentive opportunity. The same filing includes Allstate's July 2026 catastrophe loss update. A high-profile CFO hire from real estate data and mortgage finance signaling financial leadership continuity.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 188-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation filed a Reg FD disclosure on June 18, 2026, releasing its May 2026 estimated catastrophe losses and policies-in-force report (posted on allstateinvestors.com as Exhibit 99). No specific dollar loss figures appear in the body excerpt. Routine monthly catastrophe and policy count disclosure for Allstate's investor base.

8-KShareholder voteMay 278-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation held its annual stockholders' meeting on May 22, 2026, electing 11 directors for one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting; all nominees passed with majority votes, with 27.2M broker non-votes. Notable against votes include 17.1M against Andrea Redmond, 10.8M against Siddharth N. Mehta, and 9.3M against Kermit R. Crawford out of ~200M votes cast. Routine annual governance vote with no contested seats but notable minority opposition to certain incumbents.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 218-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Allstate Corporation filed a Reg FD disclosure on May 21, 2026, releasing its April 2026 estimated catastrophe losses and policies-in-force report (posted on allstateinvestors.com as Exhibit 99). No specific dollar loss figures appear in the body excerpt. Routine monthly catastrophe and policy count disclosure for Allstate's investor base.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 168-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 14 other (3 13Gs · 2 13Fs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Looking for Earnings Beat? Buy These 5 Top-Ranked Stockszacks.com·18h ago4 PEG-Based Value Stocks to Buy as Investors Look Beyond AIzacks.com·4d agoAllstate Stock: Strong Earnings and Growth Keep the Outlook Brightzacks.com·5d agoState Farm Just Handed $5 Billion Back to Customers. Here’s What That Says About Where Car Insurance Profits Are Headed247wallst.com·8d agoBank of New York Mellon Corp Takes $425.48 Million Position in The Allstate Corporation $ALLdefenseworld.net·10d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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