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PGPGR

The Progressive Corporation

$PGR·$127B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$215.50+0.3%YTD+0.3%1Y-11.4%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
PGPGR
$PGRThe Progressive Corporation
$215.50+0.28%47 posts1.2×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $PGR on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

47X posts · last 7 days
Aug 26Sep 8
Chatter Meter
1.2×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $PGR's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 67% of tracked names.

Bullish sentiment⚠AI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-26 · top-engagement diverged

Progressive is described as a challenge-account cornerstone. One trader's challenge account 3x'd to $153,588 with PGR as top pick. Chart posters flag PGR breaking a year-long downtrend in June and reclaiming the 20/50/200-DMAs. ChatGPT's Rallies AI Arena portfolio holds $21K of PGR. A cautious note: policies in force +7% and net premiums +5% but premium per policy -1.9% signals an auto cycle turning with combined ratio up 1.5pts YoY.

Read what X is saying about $PGR

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $PGR — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-09

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Progressive at 10x earnings with the CEO cashing out $8.2M — real business, real auto-cycle turning tension.

The Progressive Corporation is one of the largest US personal-auto and property insurers. It's cooling after a strong run, and the tape is now digesting mixed operational signals plus a significant CEO exit.

  • Q2 revenue grew 8.7% YoY to $22.18B with 16% operating margins and $4.81 EPS — real earnings power, and the FCF yield near 14% is exceptional. But policies-in-force +7% with premium-per-policy -1.9% signals an auto-cycle turn, with combined ratio up 1.5pts YoY.
  • CEO Susan Griffith sold $8.20M on Sept 1 (plus a same-day gift) — a real top-of-house transaction and the largest CEO monetization at PGR in recent memory, worth weighing against the cooling framework.
  • Position at 42% of the 52-week range and flat vs both 50-day and 200-day — a coiled setup where the operating turnaround thesis (challenge account 3x'd with PGR as top pick) is real but the cycle-turn concern is the counter.

The Oct 21 Q3 print at $3.99 estimated EPS is the fundamental test — a beat with continued policies-in-force growth and stable combined-ratio commentary arrests the cooling; a specific rate-cycle deterioration or another CEO sale is what confirms cooling extends into stalled.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the mixed framing — the trader challenge account 3x'd with PGR as top pick captures the bullish thesis, and the chart reclaiming 20/50/200-DMAs is real. The cautious note on policies-in-force +7% vs premium-per-policy -1.9% and combined ratio +1.5pts YoY is exactly the auto-cycle-turn concern to name.

What to watch: The Oct 21 Q3 print at $3.99 estimated EPS — specifically policies-in-force, premium-per-policy, and combined ratio. A beat with stable combined ratio arrests cooling; another cycle deterioration confirms stalled.

On the calendar: 2026-10-21 — Q3 2026 earnings

ceo large exit

Read the AI verdict on $PGR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

US auto and property insurer known for usage-based telematics pricing, operating across direct and independent agent distribution channels.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PGR.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

P&C insurance pricing remains hard following elevated catastrophe losses; premium growth outpaces claims inflation restoring underwriting profitability. Investment income tailwind from higher yields adds further support to earnings.

What this means for $PGR

Direct beneficiary — Progressive; auto insurance pricing leader, highest claims-data analytics advantage, best-in-class combined ratio.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+4.0%YTD
+5.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
34.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
16.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
13.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
35.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
28.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 15, 2026$4.85$4.64+4.5%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$4.81$4.85-0.8%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.67$4.44+5.2%
Q3 2025Oct 15, 2025$4.05$4.99-18.8%
Next earningsWed, Oct 21·consensus EPS $4.00

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$22.2B+8.7%37.7%16.1%$4.81$4.3B
Q4 FY25$22.7B+12.2%29.3%16.2%$5.04$3.0B
Q3 FY25$22.5B+14.2%15.8%14.8%$4.45$5.1B
Q2 FY25$22.0B+21.3%31.3%18.1%$5.42$3.9B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$88.2B$86.9B – $89.9B$17.93$16.33 – $19.007
FY27$92.9B$89.4B – $96.4B$16.21$14.60 – $17.767
FY28$97.9B$94.3B – $103.6B$15.97$14.81 – $17.175

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.43%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-0.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+2.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 582.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.265-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 1Griffith Susan PatriciaCEO37.3K sh$8.2MSellAug 20Steven BrozChief Information Officer1.2K sh$269KSellAug 13Lori A NiederstChief Personal Lines Officer7.3K sh$1.5MSellJul 28Andrew J QuiggCFO3.5K sh$770KSellJul 27John Jo MurphyPresident8.1K sh$1.7MSellJul 27Griffith Susan PatriciaCEO37.3K sh$7.9MSellJul 27Jonathan S. BauerChief Investment Officer2.2K sh$477KSellJul 27Karen BailoPresident8.5K sh$1.8MSellJul 23Steven BrozChief Information Officer1.2K sh$237KSellJun 24Jeffrey D KellyDirector7.0K sh$1.5M
1–10 of 14
+ 89 other (67 awards · 12 inkinds · 6 returns · 3 gifts · 1 exempt) in window

See when $PGR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 198-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 108-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) filed an 8-K on August 11, 2026 (event date August 7) under Item 7.01 (Regulation FD), furnishing investor materials — likely its monthly financial results report or an investor presentation — simultaneously made public. Progressive discloses monthly insurance metrics under Reg FD. The actual report or presentation is in the attached exhibit. Progressive is one of the largest U.S. personal auto insurers.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 93
AI summary

Initial Form 3 ownership statement filed by Heather Day, a newly reportable officer or director at The Progressive Corporation, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of company securities upon becoming a Section 16 reporting person. Routine Section 16(a) disclosure triggered by appointment or election to a qualifying role. No operational implications for the company.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) filed an 8-K on June 11, 2026 covering an officer or director change (Item 5.02) alongside a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01), suggesting the leadership transition was accompanied by an investor presentation. The specific executive transition details and the presentation topic are in the exhibits not reproduced in the excerpt. An officer change at a major P&C insurer paired with an investor communication is modestly material — likely a planned transition with accompanying messaging rather than an abrupt departure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) disclosed its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ended April 30, 2026 via a Reg FD press release (Exhibit 99) issued May 20, 2026. The body excerpt does not include specific net premiums written, combined ratio, or EPS figures, which are contained in the attached exhibit. Progressive regularly reports monthly results given its scale in personal and commercial lines insurance. This is a routine monthly financial disclosure; investors should review the exhibit for specific underwriting and investment income metrics.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) held its 2026 Annual Meeting on May 8, 2026, with 518,130,136 shares represented. All eleven director nominees were elected with strong support; Andrew J. Quigg (current Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer) was elected by the Board to succeed retiring CFO John P. Sauerland as Vice President and CFO effective July 4, 2026. Compensation details for Quigg’s CFO role were not yet finalized and will be disclosed via an 8-K/A. This is a routine governance event with the notable leadership transition of a major executive role at a large insurance company.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 73
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Mar 25424B5
+ 13 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Can PGR's Telematics Edge Strengthen Its Underwriting Advantage?zacks.com·22h ago3 Insurers to Watch as Competition in Personal Auto Intensifieszacks.com·2d agoProgressive (PGR) Outperforms Broader Market: What You Need to Knowzacks.com·7d agoLEQEMBI® (lecanemab) Subcutaneous Formulation as an Initiation Treatment for Early Alzheimer's Disease Approved in Chinaglobenewswire.com·8d agoInsurers Are Buying Back More Stock as Pricing Softensfool.com·8d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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