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PGPGR

The Progressive Corporation

$PGR·$119B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$203.11+0.4%YTD-5.2%1Y-24.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-06-06: 45 posts2026-06-07: 7 posts2026-06-08: 30 posts2026-06-09: 14 posts2026-06-10: 28 posts2026-06-11: 11 posts2026-06-12: 22 posts158+15%
Price updated 19h ago·X counts updated 19h ago
PGPGR
The Progressive Corporation$PGR
$203.11+0.42%158 posts+15%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PGR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-06-13

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

The Progressive Corporation is the second-largest US personal auto insurer (after State Farm) — also major commercial auto/property carrier, motorcycle/ATV/RV/boat coverage, plus property (homeowners, renters), umbrella, flood. Mayfield OH, $118.7B market cap. Fundamentals are best-in-class: PE 10x (cheap for insurer), gross margin 28%, operating margin 16%, ROE 35%, ROIC 35%, FCF yield 13.8%, debt-to-equity 0.26x, beta 0.27 (very defensive). Q1 2026 revenue grew 8.7% YoY to $22.2B and EPS surprised +2.3% — the fourth consecutive positive EPS surprise (2%, 5%, -19%, 10%). Stock is -5% YTD, -24% over twelve months, 17th-percentile of 52-week range — deeply oversold for a quality compounder. The leadership transition: CFO John Sauerland retires, CFO Andrew Quigg (current Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer) elevated effective July 4. Monthly results disclosure pattern (April monthly results released 5/20). Modest insider sales: officers Broz $231K and Murphy $1.2M at $200.00 on 6/5.

What to watch: Whether Q2 (Jul 15) extends the EPS-beat streak with combined ratio under 90% AND new CFO Quigg's first communication signals continuity — both green restart the move from 17th-percentile; another EPS miss like Q3 2025 (-19% surprise) reseals the YTD breakdown.

sentiment missing

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $PGR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications. This segment insures a diverse array of vehicles, including cars, vans, pickup trucks, and dump trucks for small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks for regional freight, expedited shipping, and long-haul transport companies; heavy-duty vehicles like dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used in industries such as construction, logging, and mining; and tow trucks and wreckers for towing and service stations, as well as various non-fleet taxis and premium car services. The Property segment offers residential insurance solutions for homeowners, other property owners, and renters. Its portfolio further extends to include personal umbrella policies and both primary and excess flood insurance. Beyond underwriting, the company facilitates policy issuance and claims adjusting. It also serves as an agent for various additional insurance products, such as homeowner general liability and workers' compensation, and provides reinsurance services. Progressive's products are distributed through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly to consumers via its online platforms (including mobile access) and telephone channels. Established in 1937, The Progressive Corporation maintains its headquarters in Mayfield, Ohio.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PGR.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

Elevated catastrophe frequency is the structural margin compressor — climate-driven cat events push combined ratios higher across P&C underwriters, keeping the sector at -8% YTD. PLMR's successful June 1 reinsurance placement at favorable terms distinguishes specialty cat writers from broad-line insurers.

See how Insurance - Property & Casualty shapes $PGR

  • Where the industry is in its cycle and the catalysts moving it now
  • What this means specifically for $PGR's next move
  • Peer-basket or ETF benchmark you can use to gut-check the read
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Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
-2.7%YTD
-0.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
34.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
16.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
13.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
35.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
28.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$4.96$4.85+2.3%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.67$4.44+5.2%
Q3 2025Oct 15, 2025$4.05$4.99-18.8%
Q2 2025Jul 16, 2025$4.88$4.43+10.2%
Next earningsWed, Jul 15·consensus EPS $3.74

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$22.2B+8.7%37.7%16.1%$4.81$4.3B
Q4 FY25$22.7B+12.2%29.3%16.2%$5.04$3.0B
Q3 FY25$22.5B+14.2%15.8%14.8%$4.45$5.1B
Q2 FY25$22.0B+21.3%31.3%18.1%$5.42$3.9B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$89.1B$86.3B – $91.3B$16.42$14.67 – $18.227
FY27$95.2B$88.9B – $98.2B$16.22$14.67 – $18.098
FY28$99.4B$99.1B – $99.7B$15.99$13.89 – $20.114

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.17%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-5.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 582.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.275-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Know if $PGR is setting up — or just chopping

  • Volume multiple vs 30-day baseline — catch unusual interest before the move
  • Position vs 50d & 200d MAs and 52-week range — trend direction at a glance
  • Float bucket, beta, and active-offering flags — what kind of stock you're trading
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Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 5John Jo MurphyPresident5.9K sh$1.2MSellJun 5Steven BrozChief Information Officer1.2K sh$231KSellApr 16Devin C JohnsonDirector980 sh$199K
+ 37 other (32 awards · 5 returns) in window

See when $PGR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) disclosed its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ended April 30, 2026 via a Reg FD press release (Exhibit 99) issued May 20, 2026. The body excerpt does not include specific net premiums written, combined ratio, or EPS figures, which are contained in the attached exhibit. Progressive regularly reports monthly results given its scale in personal and commercial lines insurance. This is a routine monthly financial disclosure; investors should review the exhibit for specific underwriting and investment income metrics.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) held its 2026 Annual Meeting on May 8, 2026, with 518,130,136 shares represented. All eleven director nominees were elected with strong support; Andrew J. Quigg (current Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer) was elected by the Board to succeed retiring CFO John P. Sauerland as Vice President and CFO effective July 4, 2026. Compensation details for Quigg’s CFO role were not yet finalized and will be disclosed via an 8-K/A. This is a routine governance event with the notable leadership transition of a major executive role at a large insurance company.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 73
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Mar 25424B5
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Mar 23424B5
8-KPress release / Reg FDMar 188-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 188-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KOfficer or director changeJan 288-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 12 other (2 11-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Progressive (PGR) Rises As Market Takes a Dip: Key Factszacks.com·3d agoChatGPT portfolio crushes stock market, gains 60%finbold.com·6d agoProgressive Keeps Taking Auto Insurance Market Share. Can It Keep Winning?fool.com·8d agoProgressive (PGR) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Knowzacks.com·10d agoThe Progressive Corporation (PGR) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·10d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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