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PGPGR

The Progressive Corporation

$PGR·$124B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$219.52+1.7%YTD+0.7%1Y-10.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-20: 10 posts2026-07-21: 6 posts2026-07-22: 5 posts2026-07-23: 9 posts2026-07-24: 13 posts2026-07-25: 4 posts2026-07-26: 2 posts490%
Price updated 11m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
PGPGR
$PGRThe Progressive Corporation
$219.52+1.74%49 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PGR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-25

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Progressive is the $124B P&C insurer at 10x PE — down 14% T12M as the auto-insurance cycle normalizes and posters trade the PGR/TRV ratio.

The Progressive Corporation is the US-listed personal-and-commercial-vehicle-and-property P&C insurance giant with three main segments (Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, Property). Shares are essentially flat year-to-date and down 14% over twelve months at $213.83 near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and October 14 Q3 earnings is the next scheduled catalyst.

  • The July 15 monthly financial results were in line: Q2 EPS of $4.64 matched the $4.64 estimate — that's the specific pattern of a mature insurance business where the multi-year premium-pricing cycle has moved past peak-tightening, and it's the specific reason the tape has been range-bound near the current $214 level.
  • Revenue trajectory is decelerating from the peak: Q1 2026 revenue grew 8.7% YoY to $22.18B — the specific pattern where growth has decelerated from the 21% peak in Q2 2025 to the current 9-14% range, reflecting the post-hard-market pricing normalization as auto-insurance rates start to stabilize.
  • Valuation is reasonable: 10x trailing PE for the largest US P&C name with 30% Q1 gross margin — the market has stopped paying the growth premium as the pricing cycle matures, supporting the current level as a downside floor even if near-term upside is capped.
  • The PGR/TRV ratio trade is a specific institutional signal: sentiment cites hedge funds trading the PGR/TRV relative-strength ratio which broke down sharply — that's the specific intra-sector positioning pattern that suggests active PGR-underweight and TRV-overweight rotation, and it's a specific reason the T12M relative underperformance is structural rather than idiosyncratic.

October 14 Q3 earnings is the next real hurdle — a beat with 8%+ revenue growth plus premium-pricing durability and combined-ratio improvement commentary could restart the tape toward $240+; combined-ratio deterioration or a nat-cat-loss disclosure extends the cooling. Monthly results provide interim data points.

What to watch: October 14 Q3 2026 earnings and monthly financial results — the deciding numbers are premium-growth trajectory, combined-ratio direction, and any natural-catastrophe-loss disclosure; ratio deterioration is the sell tell.

On the calendar: 2026-10-14 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-27

Progressive was upgraded by Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight with a $210 price target. Contributors note the PGR/TRV insurance duo brokedown sharply with strong ratings-quality context. Former GEICO SVP explains why Root cannot out-scale PGR's $5B marketing budget. Trade thesis alerts hit first targets.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $PGR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

US auto and property insurer known for usage-based telematics pricing, operating across direct and independent agent distribution channels.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PGR.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — climate-driven cat events push combined ratios higher across P&C underwriters, keeping reinsurance costs sticky even as rate cycles moderate.

What this means for $PGR

Partial — US auto and property insurer known for usage-based telematics pricing, operating across direct and independent agent distribution channels; partial earnings exposure to insurance - property & casualty demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+7.7%YTD
+13.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
34.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
16.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
13.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
35.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
28.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 15, 2026$4.85$4.64+4.5%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$4.81$4.85-0.8%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.67$4.44+5.2%
Q3 2025Oct 15, 2025$4.05$4.99-18.8%
Next earningsWed, Oct 14·consensus EPS $3.64

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$22.2B+8.7%37.7%16.1%$4.81$4.3B
Q4 FY25$22.7B+12.2%29.3%16.2%$5.04$3.0B
Q3 FY25$22.5B+14.2%15.8%14.8%$4.45$5.1B
Q2 FY25$22.0B+21.3%31.3%18.1%$5.42$3.9B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$88.4B$86.6B – $90.2B$17.50$16.15 – $18.147
FY27$93.5B$89.6B – $97.4B$16.21$14.47 – $18.298
FY28$97.5B$96.1B – $98.8B$16.08$14.77 – $18.025

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.40%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+3.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+2.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 23Steven BrozChief Information Officer1.2K sh$237KSellJun 24Jeffrey D KellyDirector7.0K sh$1.5MSellJun 22Steven BrozChief Information Officer1.2K sh$237KSellJun 5Steven BrozChief Information Officer1.2K sh$231KSellJun 5John Jo MurphyPresident5.9K sh$1.2MSellApr 16Devin C JohnsonDirector980 sh$199K
+ 64 other (55 awards · 6 returns · 2 gifts · 1 exempt) in window

See when $PGR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 93
AI summary

Initial Form 3 ownership statement filed by Heather Day, a newly reportable officer or director at The Progressive Corporation, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of company securities upon becoming a Section 16 reporting person. Routine Section 16(a) disclosure triggered by appointment or election to a qualifying role. No operational implications for the company.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) filed an 8-K on June 11, 2026 covering an officer or director change (Item 5.02) alongside a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01), suggesting the leadership transition was accompanied by an investor presentation. The specific executive transition details and the presentation topic are in the exhibits not reproduced in the excerpt. An officer change at a major P&C insurer paired with an investor communication is modestly material — likely a planned transition with accompanying messaging rather than an abrupt departure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) disclosed its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ended April 30, 2026 via a Reg FD press release (Exhibit 99) issued May 20, 2026. The body excerpt does not include specific net premiums written, combined ratio, or EPS figures, which are contained in the attached exhibit. Progressive regularly reports monthly results given its scale in personal and commercial lines insurance. This is a routine monthly financial disclosure; investors should review the exhibit for specific underwriting and investment income metrics.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) held its 2026 Annual Meeting on May 8, 2026, with 518,130,136 shares represented. All eleven director nominees were elected with strong support; Andrew J. Quigg (current Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer) was elected by the Board to succeed retiring CFO John P. Sauerland as Vice President and CFO effective July 4, 2026. Compensation details for Quigg’s CFO role were not yet finalized and will be disclosed via an 8-K/A. This is a routine governance event with the notable leadership transition of a major executive role at a large insurance company.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 73
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Mar 25424B5
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Mar 23424B5
8-KPress release / Reg FDMar 188-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 13 other (2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 11-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Cetera Investment Advisers Sells 5,109 Shares of The Progressive Corporation $PGRdefenseworld.net·2d agoProgressive Announces Investor Relations Eventglobenewswire.com·5d agoBank of Nova Scotia Cuts Stake in The Progressive Corporation $PGRdefenseworld.net·5d agoHere is What to Know Beyond Why The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a Trending Stockzacks.com·5d agoAndra AP fonden Cuts Stock Position in The Progressive Corporation $PGRdefenseworld.net·6d ago

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