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LMLMND

Lemonade, Inc.

$LMND·$5.4B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$70.14-0.7%YTD-2.2%1Y+75.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-06: 226 posts2026-07-07: 140 posts2026-07-08: 115 posts2026-07-09: 97 posts2026-07-10: 77 posts2026-07-11: 40 posts2026-07-12: 66 posts765+3%
Price updated 23m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
LMLMND
$LMNDLemonade, Inc.
$70.14-0.68%765 posts+3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LMND, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-14

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Lemonade is up 75% TTM on the AI-insurance story — Morgan Stanley just downgraded on valuation and CFO Bixby sold $5.8M.

Lemonade is the AI-native insurance startup whose renters, homeowners, and pet books have been steadily expanding while the AI-application narrative has driven a 75% TTM rally. The tape is at 54% of its 52-week range into Aug 4 Q2 earnings, and both bulls and cautionary voices have concrete evidence.

  • The operational expansion is real and accelerating: Q1 revenue grew 55% YoY to $234M, renters insurance has expanded to 9 new states since April, FSD-Supervised car insurance just launched in Indiana, and Lemonade took an additional 2% of reinsurance premiums — that's a genuine top-line ramp with margin optionality as the book scales.
  • The AI-app framing has substance beyond narrative: as frontier LLMs commoditize, Lemonade's specific advantage (AI-underwritten policies, AI-automated claims) becomes cheaper to run and easier to scale — Wave 5 targets of $132 and $135 assume this compounds through FY27 as the loss ratio improves.
  • The insider tape is what tempers the run: CFO Timothy Bixby sold $5.78M on July 9 (a real transaction, not a small 10b5-1 slice), officer John Peters sold $272K on July 8, and Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equalweight at $75 citing valuation — CFO-scale selling into the post-run tape is the specific tell that says the multiple has run ahead of the near-term.

Aug 4 Q2 earnings decides — need in-force premium and loss-ratio color continuing to improve, plus revenue at or above ~$260M implied by the growth trajectory, to break the current $70 level toward $85. A soft loss ratio or a state-expansion pause lets CFO Bixby's $5.8M sale become the tape's excuse to fade the recent gains.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the AI-app-winner framing on the operational story — the state expansions, FSD car insurance, and reinsurance ramp are real inputs. Where I flag tension the crowd is under-weighting: CFO Bixby's $5.8M July 9 sale plus Morgan Stanley's valuation downgrade at $75 are the specific counter-signals into the Aug 4 print.

What to watch: Aug 4 Q2 earnings — need in-force premium and loss-ratio improvement plus revenue at or above ~$260M. A loss-ratio miss or a state-expansion pause lets the CFO sale narrative fade the recent gains.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment73 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-13

Lemonade is being framed as one of the purest AI-application winners with +48-50% in a month, expanding renters insurance to 9 new states since April, launching FSD (Supervised) car insurance in Indiana, and just taking an additional 2% of reinsurance premiums that could add tens of millions in incremental income as the book scales. Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equalweight with a $75 target after the ~50% run, saying they still believe in the thesis but need to step aside on valuation. Bulls target Wave 5 at $132 and technical AVWAP breakout price targets of $135, calling this the 'AI-app winner' as consumers benefit from cheap frontier models being commoditized. There is no coherent bear thread beyond MS's downgrade - the pushback is limited to 'valuation richer at 7x P/S.'

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LMND

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance via an AI-native platform targeting tech-forward consumers in the U.S. and Europe.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LMND.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — climate-driven cat events push combined ratios higher across P&C underwriters, keeping reinsurance costs sticky even as rate cycles moderate.

What this means for $LMND

Neutral — Sells renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance via an AI-native platform targeting tech-forward consumers in the U.S; this business's revenue is largely decoupled from the climate-driven cat events and P&C rate hardening.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+5.6%YTD
+11.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-28.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-18.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-16.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-26.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
47.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$-0.47$-0.58+19.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$-0.29$-0.41+29.3%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$-0.51$-0.72+29.2%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$-0.60$-0.81+25.9%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $-0.56

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$234.4M+55.0%43.1%-14.8%$-0.47$-4.1M
Q4 FY25$228.1M+53.3%63.0%-9.0%$-0.33$17.6M
Q3 FY25$194.5M+42.4%41.5%-18.7%$-0.51$2.6M
Q2 FY25$164.1M+34.5%39.7%-26.0%$-0.60$3.4M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.2B$1.2B – $1.2B-$1.74-$1.98 – -$1.579
FY27$1.6B$1.6B – $1.7B-$0.79-$1.21 – -$0.569
FY28$2.1B$2.1B – $2.1B$0.57$0.26 – $0.995
FY29$2.6B$2.6B – $2.7B$2.72$2.67 – $2.782

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.54%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+19.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+8.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 71.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.785-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 7Timothy E BixbyCFO73.0K sh$5.8MSellJul 6Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.4K sh$272KSellJun 4Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.6K sh$191KSellJun 3Maya ProsorChief Business Officer1.2K sh$65KSellJun 3Timothy E BixbyCFO2.2K sh$118KSellJun 3Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer1.7K sh$92KBuyMar 10Maria Angelidis-smithDirector8.7K sh$485KSellMar 4Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.6K sh$187KSellMar 3Timothy E BixbyCFO2.1K sh$107KSellMar 3Maya ProsorChief Business Officer223 sh$11K
1–10 of 14
+ 12 other (10 awards · 1 gift · 1 exempt) in window

See when $LMND insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJun 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Lemonade entered a New Business Financing Agreement on June 22, 2026 with Hannover Re (Ireland) DAC, under which Hannover will finance up to $250M of Lemonade's sales and marketing growth spend from January 1, 2027 through December 31, 2028 (capped at $150M in 2027). Hannover funds up to 80% of monthly growth spend (max $20M per cohort) and is repaid from premiums collected on assigned customer cohorts at a rate of 3-year Treasury + 5.8%. Material — meaningful off-balance-sheet growth financing from a major reinsurer, significantly reducing Lemonade's cash burn on customer acquisition.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LMND (LMND) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

+ 11 other (2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 2 13Gs · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why Lemonade Stock Wilted by Almost 9% on Wednesdayfool.com·6d agoLemonade Stock Surges 88.7% in a Year: How Should You Play the Stock?zacks.com·7d agoLemonade Expands Renters Insurance to Vermontprnewswire.com·8d agoWhy Lemonade Stock Leaped Todayfool.com·8d agoWhy Lemonade Stock Skyrocketed This Weekfool.com·11d ago

In themes

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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