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LMLMND

Lemonade, Inc.

$LMND·$4.1B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$52.96-1.8%YTD-24.6%1Y-0.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-20: 32 posts2026-08-21: 37 posts2026-08-22: 9 posts2026-08-23: 14 posts205-5%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 7d ago
LMLMND
$LMNDLemonade, Inc.
$52.96-1.80%205 posts-5%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LMND, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

AI-native insurer growing 55% with Car in Florida launching — tape rejects the fundamentals at 13% of the 52-week range.

Lemonade sells home, renters, pet, life, and now car insurance through an AI-first underwriting and claims stack, primarily to younger customers who don't want traditional insurance agents. The operational trajectory is genuinely accelerating and Q4 2026 is the first expected adjusted-EBITDA-positive quarter, but the stock chart is not confirming.

What's actually here:

  • Revenue growth just re-accelerated dramatically — Q1 of $234M grew 55% YoY on top of 53%, 42%, 35% in prior quarters; a P&C insurer sustaining 40-55% growth reflects both product expansion (car insurance now) and improving loss ratios on the maturing book.
  • The economics are approaching an inflection — Q1 operating margin -14.8% versus -26% a year ago; the model calls for Q4 2026 first adjusted-EBITDA positive with FY28 EPS turning to +$0.54, meaning the profitability curve is dated.
  • The customer flywheel is working — In-force premium +32% YoY, customer count +23% YoY per the reported numbers; the Florida car-insurance launch (with Pennsylvania next) is the specific product expansion driving the top-line acceleration.
  • The tape has broken from fundamentals — position 12.7% of the 52-week range, below the 50-day by 11%, below the 200-day by 18%, on 0.54x volume; the market is not confirming what the numbers show, and the market's hesitance is worth taking seriously.

The forward path is that Q3 earnings on Nov 4 delivering another 50%+ growth quarter with car-insurance revenue attribution and any Q4 adj-EBITDA guidance is what breaks the technical damage; without a specific data point that changes the loss-ratio narrative, the drift continues. The bear case is that AI-underwriting economics turn out to be less differentiated than the model implies, and Root or Progressive's own AI stacks match the loss-ratio improvement Lemonade is claiming.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on Q2 revenue +79%, IFP +32%, and Q4 2026 first-EBITDA-positive expectation is factually grounded; the crowd is under-weighting the specific fact that the tape is at 13% of the 52-week range despite the operational trajectory.

What to watch: Q3 earnings on Nov 4 — specifically car-insurance revenue attribution, loss-ratio trajectory, and Q4 adj-EBITDA guide. A confirmed Q4 EBITDA positive breaks the technical damage.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 2026 earnings

chart diverges from opsebitda inflection pending

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment31 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-29

Lemonade sentiment on X is bullish. LMND just launched Car insurance in Florida (going after biggest premium states, PA next), and now offers Pet/Renters/Car in 11 states covering ~47% of US population — bulls model cross-selling as the compounder. Posters call it a 'true AI-native' insurance company with intelligent-systems pricing and legitimate claim payments. Investor Day-anticipation posts are circulating. MACD-curling-green and 'you will never buy below $50 again' language dominates. No meaningful bearish voice.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LMND

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance via an AI-native platform targeting tech-forward consumers in the U.S. and Europe.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LMND.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — climate-driven cat events push combined ratios higher across P&C underwriters, keeping reinsurance costs sticky even as rate cycles moderate.

What this means for $LMND

Neutral — Sells renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance via an AI-native platform targeting tech-forward consumers in the U.S. and Europe; limited read-through from insurance - property & casualty macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+7.7%YTD
+8.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-28.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-18.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-16.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-26.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
47.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$-0.56$-0.56+0.8%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$-0.47$-0.58+19.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$-0.29$-0.41+29.3%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$-0.51$-0.72+29.2%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $-0.60

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$234.4M+55.0%43.1%-14.8%$-0.47$-4.1M
Q4 FY25$228.1M+53.3%63.0%-9.0%$-0.33$17.6M
Q3 FY25$194.5M+42.4%41.5%-18.7%$-0.51$2.6M
Q2 FY25$164.1M+34.5%39.7%-26.0%$-0.60$3.4M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.2B$1.2B – $1.2B-$1.78-$2.03 – -$1.607
FY27$1.6B$1.6B – $1.7B-$0.89-$1.43 – -$0.699
FY28$2.1B$2.1B – $2.2B$0.54$0.38 – $0.696
FY29$2.6B$2.6B – $2.7B$2.70$2.62 – $2.775

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.13%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-10.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-18.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 71.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.865-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 13Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer11.0K sh$578KSellJul 7Timothy E BixbyCFO73.0K sh$5.8MSellJul 6Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.4K sh$272KSellJun 4Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.6K sh$191KSellJun 3Timothy E BixbyCFO2.2K sh$118KSellJun 3Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer1.7K sh$92KSellJun 3Maya ProsorChief Business Officer1.2K sh$65KBuyMar 10Maria Angelidis-smithDirector8.7K sh$485KSellMar 4Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.6K sh$187KSellMar 3Maya ProsorChief Business Officer223 sh$11K
1–10 of 12
+ 12 other (11 awards · 1 gift) in window

See when $LMND insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 298-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

LMND (LMND) disclosed an executive/director departure (Item 5.02, filed 2026-07-29). ure of Directors departed from Directors or Certain Officers. Compensation and transition details are in the exhibits. Leadership changes can signal strategic shifts; investors should assess continuity and the appointee's background.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Lemonade entered a New Business Financing Agreement on June 22, 2026 with Hannover Re (Ireland) DAC, under which Hannover will finance up to $250M of Lemonade's sales and marketing growth spend from January 1, 2027 through December 31, 2028 (capped at $150M in 2027). Hannover funds up to 80% of monthly growth spend (max $20M per cohort) and is repaid from premiums collected on assigned customer cohorts at a rate of 3-year Treasury + 5.8%. Material — meaningful off-balance-sheet growth financing from a major reinsurer, significantly reducing Lemonade's cash burn on customer acquisition.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LMND (LMND) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

+ 9 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Lemonade Continues U.S. Expansion With Launch of Car Insurance in Floridaprnewswire.com·4d agoRYTHM Introduces Lifted Lemon, a New THC Twist on Iced Tea and Lemonadeglobenewswire.com·11d agoLemonade, Inc. (LMND) Presents at Oppenheimer 29th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference Transcriptseekingalpha.com·18d agoRoot's 2026 Outlook: AI-Driven Telematics Model Gains Scale Through Embedded Growth Partnershipsfool.com·19d agoLemonade to Present at the Oppenheimer 29th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conferenceprnewswire.com·23d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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