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LMLMND

Lemonade, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
$LMND·$3.6B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$44.20-3.6%YTD-37.7%1Y-7.0%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
LMLMND
$LMNDLemonade, Inc.
$44.20-3.62%1.9k posts2.5×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $LMND on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,943X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
2.5×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $LMND's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 98% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data15 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The Lemonade crowd is bullish on an agentic-AI thesis — Oppenheimer's Israel desk flagged Muse and Grok Bot as a direct catalyst into November's Investor Day, longs cite the $1B+ cash cushion earning extra yield as fundamental support, and holders argue price comparison agents should surface Lemonade on both price and service. The honest moderation is one holder admitting they're down ~$90K and the "discount-rate risk even when execution is perfect" caveat.

Read what X is saying about $LMND

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $LMND — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Comeback attemptSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Lemonade is pinned near 52-week lows — the November Investor Day is the bulls' last line in the sand.

Lemonade is the AI-first insurance disruptor — selling renters, home, pet, and auto policies through an app-based claims flow. Revenue is growing fast but losses are deep, and the stock has lost a third of its value this year.

  • The growth is real: Q1 revenue +55% YoY with the company still guiding to an EBITDA inflection by Q4 2026 — if that lands, the equity re-rates meaningfully from here.
  • But operating margin is -16% and ROIC is -19%, so the business is burning capital at a time when the rate backdrop is roughly 4 points less friendly to pre-profit insurtech than it was in 2020 — real yields are the structural drag.
  • 52-week range position is 6% — the market is pricing in the EBITDA inflection NOT arriving on schedule, which is why one long-holder is down $90K and still adding and the thread treats the November Investor Day as make-or-break.

Nov 4 earnings and the Investor Day together decide the trajectory — a credible EBITDA path with retained growth puts in a bottom. Any combined-ratio deterioration or a timeline pushout and this breaks lower from a floor it is already testing.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread's bullish framing — Oppenheimer preview, Q4 '26 EBITDA inflection, Investor Day as the agentic-insurance moment — has the right near-term signposts, but the structural real-yield headwind the one skeptic flagged is why the chart is at the floor despite that.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 earnings plus the November Investor Day — specifically combined-ratio trajectory, operating cash flow, and any revised EBITDA-inflection timeline. A pushed-out inflection is the clearest invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $LMND

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance via an AI-native platform targeting tech-forward consumers in the U.S. and Europe.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LMND.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — Hard P&C pricing cycle with premium rates still outpacing loss-cost inflation and elevated investment yields remain the twin earnings drivers.

What this means for $LMND

Neutral — Sells renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance via an AI-native platform targeting tech-forward consumers in the U.S. and Europe.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+1.1%YTD
+11.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-28.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-18.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-16.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-26.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
47.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$-0.56$-0.56+0.8%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$-0.47$-0.58+19.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$-0.29$-0.41+29.3%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$-0.51$-0.72+29.2%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $-0.58

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$234.4M+55.0%43.1%-14.8%$-0.47$-4.1M
Q4 FY25$228.1M+53.3%63.0%-9.0%$-0.33$17.6M
Q3 FY25$194.5M+42.4%41.5%-18.7%$-0.51$2.6M
Q2 FY25$164.1M+34.5%39.7%-26.0%$-0.60$3.4M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.2B$1.2B – $1.2B-$1.84-$1.93 – -$1.789
FY27$1.6B$1.6B – $1.7B-$1.07-$1.72 – -$0.669
FY28$2.1B$2.1B – $2.2B$0.48$0.09 – $0.867
FY29$2.6B$2.5B – $2.7B$2.70$2.61 – $2.773

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.3%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-10.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-26.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 71.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.875-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 4Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer2.2K sh$122KSellSep 3Maya ProsorChief Business Officer1.0K sh$57KSellSep 3Timothy E BixbyCFO1.9K sh$103KSellSep 3Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer859 sh$47KSellAug 13Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer11.0K sh$578KSellJul 7Timothy E BixbyCFO73.0K sh$5.8MSellJul 6Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.4K sh$272KSellJun 4Peters John SheldonChief Insurance Officer3.6K sh$191KSellJun 3Timothy E BixbyCFO2.2K sh$118KSellJun 3Maya ProsorChief Business Officer1.2K sh$65K
1–10 of 11
+ 8 other (6 awards · 2 gifts) in window

See when $LMND insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-K/AOfficer or director change (amended)Oct 158-K/A — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KOfficer or director changeJul 298-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

LMND (LMND) disclosed an executive/director departure (Item 5.02, filed 2026-07-29). ure of Directors departed from Directors or Certain Officers. Compensation and transition details are in the exhibits. Leadership changes can signal strategic shifts; investors should assess continuity and the appointee's background.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Lemonade entered a New Business Financing Agreement on June 22, 2026 with Hannover Re (Ireland) DAC, under which Hannover will finance up to $250M of Lemonade's sales and marketing growth spend from January 1, 2027 through December 31, 2028 (capped at $150M in 2027). Hannover funds up to 80% of monthly growth spend (max $20M per cohort) and is repaid from premiums collected on assigned customer cohorts at a rate of 3-year Treasury + 5.8%. Material — meaningful off-balance-sheet growth financing from a major reinsurer, significantly reducing Lemonade's cash burn on customer acquisition.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LMND (LMND) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

+ 8 other (2 10-Qs · 2 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Comparing AON (NYSE:AON) & Lemonade (NYSE:LMND)defenseworld.net·5d agoDoes Lemonade's Growth Signal Profits Ahead?marketbeat.com·9d agoLemonade adds support for Tesla FSD V14 Lite, expanding its Autonomous Car insurance to Teslas running HW3prnewswire.com·9d agoLemonade Expands Renters Insurance to Hawaiiprnewswire.com·11d agoLemonade Rides Premium Growth, AI Strength and Better Marginszacks.com·15d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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Voices on X · top 6 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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