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ARARX

Accelerant Holdings

$ARX·$4.3B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$19.73-0.1%YTD+21.0%1Y+36.2%
Price updated 32m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
ARARX
$ARXAccelerant Holdings
$19.73-0.05%396 posts3×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ARX on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

396X posts · last 7 days
Sep 11Sep 27
Chatter Meter
3×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ARX's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 99% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data9 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-28

Arcium's ARX crypto community is celebrating 120-206% pumps from the recent bottom near $0.10-$0.11 to ~$0.29, framed as a caught-bottom trade. Bulls point to Binance Alpha TGEs and the encrypted-supercomputer AI narrative as fuel. Only one voice asks 'pump continuation or trap?' but even that acknowledges 70%+ gains from Sep 20.

Read what X is saying about $ARX

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ARX — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-09-29

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Accelerant is a live take-private — the trade here is deal-close, not fundamentals.

Accelerant Holdings is the specialty insurance/reinsurance platform Thoma Bravo agreed to take private on Aug 13. The tape has since become a merger arb: standalone fundamentals are still fine, but the whole return math is now the spread to deal close.

How this trade actually works:

  • The deal is signed and progressing: Thoma Bravo Discover Fund V will merge Cherry Tree Merger Sub into Accelerant to take it private, board approved unanimously on independent-committee recommendation — the 'go-shop' period just expired without a topping bid, which shortens the risk window.
  • The tape is already pricing near deal close: stock at $19.74 sitting at 99% of its 52-week range with volume down 70% below average — classic settled-arb behavior where the remaining spread to the (undisclosed in excerpt) per-share consideration is thin.
  • The standalone business is genuinely strong: Q2 revenue grew ~30% YoY to $357M and EPS crushed by 96% — if the deal broke, the downside cushion is real, unlike most going-private trades where fundamentals do the collapsing.

This is a merger-arb with a strong-fundamentals floor. What restarts the tape: deal close (upside is small at this spread) or an unexpected break (downside limited by underlying strength). Watch for the definitive proxy filing and any regulatory review updates.

What to watch: Definitive proxy filing with per-share consideration confirmation, and any HSR / regulatory clearance updates. A break would be the surprise; a close is what the tape prices.

On the calendar: 2026-11-11 — Q3 earnings (if it prints before merger close)

x sentiment wrong assetmerger pending

Read the AI verdict on $ARX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Specialty insurance risk exchange connecting data-driven underwriters with capital partners across MGA and exchange services segments.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ARX.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — Hard P&C pricing cycle with premium rates still outpacing loss-cost inflation and elevated investment yields remain the twin earnings drivers.

What this means for $ARX

Partial — Specialty insurance risk exchange connecting data-driven underwriters with capital partners across MGA and exchange services segments.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
-1.2%YTD
+0.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-2.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-130%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-151%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
10.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-217%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
65.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$0.32$0.16+96.4%
Q1 2026May 13, 2026$0.17$0.16+6.3%
Q4 2025Mar 18, 2026$0.23$0.16+43.8%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$0.38$0.22+75.9%
Next earningsWed, Nov 11·consensus EPS $0.20

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$192.8M+12.9%57.6%1.0%$-0.02$-28.1M
Q4 FY25$209.4M+23.5%62.3%-1.1%$-0.00$50.3M
Q3 FY25$280.7M+85.9%73.8%-484%$-6.99$91.2M
Q2 FY25$204.2M+56.7%66.0%10.9%$0.04$206.8M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.1B$1.1B – $1.2B$0.89$0.86 – $0.916
FY27$1.2B$1.2B – $1.3B$0.93$0.88 – $1.036
FY28$1.5B$1.4B – $1.6B$1.21$1.14 – $1.303
FY29$1.7B$1.6B – $1.8B$1.69$1.59 – $1.801

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.99%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+14.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+35.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 55.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.405-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 21Meriwether Karen SueDirector542 sh$11KSellAug 13Nancy HasleyDirector20.5K sh$401KSellAug 11Oneill Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W Officer89.2K sh$1.1MSellAug 10Oneill Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W Officer63.6K sh$768KSellAug 10Jeffrey L RadkeCEO80.0K sh$967KSellAug 3Jeffrey L RadkeCEO80.0K sh$965KSellJul 28Oneill Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W Officer104.6K sh$1.5MSellJul 27Oneill Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W Officer110.5K sh$1.6MSellJul 27Jeffrey L RadkeCEO95.2K sh$1.4MSellJul 27Sternberg Matthew DavidCOO17.6K sh$257K
1–10 of 23
+ 7 other (6 awards · 1 inkind) in window

See when $ARX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 148-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Accelerant Holdings agreed on August 13, 2026 to be acquired by Thoma Bravo via an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Cherry Tree BidCo and Cherry Tree Merger Sub (affiliates of Thoma Bravo Discover Fund V). Merger Sub will merge into Accelerant, leaving Accelerant as a wholly owned Thoma Bravo subsidiary; the board unanimously approved the deal on the recommendation of a special independent committee. Per-share consideration is not stated in the filing excerpt. Transformative going-private transaction for Accelerant's specialty insurance/reinsurance platform.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 298-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Accelerant Holdings (ARX, Cayman Islands specialty reinsurer) CEO Jeff Radke will present at the William Blair Growth Stock Conference on June 3, 2026, at 10:20 a.m. Eastern Time; a live webcast will be available on the company's investor relations website. Routine investor conference participation notice; no material new financial information is disclosed.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 153
AI summary

David George Paul Talach filed an initial Form 3 statement of beneficial ownership for Accelerant Holdings (ARX) securities as required under Section 16(a) of the Exchange Act, filed May 15, 2026. Talach is a director of the company based in the Cayman Islands. No securities were reported as beneficially owned at the time of filing. This is a routine initial ownership disclosure for a new board member of Accelerant Holdings, a specialty (re)insurance platform focused on managing general agent partnerships.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 153
AI summary

Simon Wainwright filed an initial Form 3 statement of beneficial ownership for Accelerant Holdings (ARX) securities as required under Section 16(a) of the Exchange Act, filed May 15, 2026. Wainwright is a director of the company based in the Cayman Islands. No securities were reported as beneficially owned at the time of filing. This is a routine initial ownership disclosure for a new board member of Accelerant Holdings, a specialty (re)insurance platform.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 138-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Accelerant Holdings reported financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, furnishing a press release (Exhibit 99.1) and an investor presentation (Exhibit 99.2) under Regulation FD on May 13, 2026. Accelerant operates as a specialty (re)insurance platform focused on managing general agent (MGA) partnerships, providing capacity and technology to specialty insurance underwriters. Body unavailable — Q1 2026 financials are furnished in the attached press release and investor presentation exhibits, not in the 8-K body. An earnings conference call was expected in connection with the disclosure.

8-KShareholder voteMay 128-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Accelerant Holdings held its 2026 Annual General Meeting on May 12, 2026, with 1,116,514,489 votes (~95.4% of total voting power) represented. The company has a dual-class share structure comprising 116,757,858 Class A shares (1 vote each) and 105,402,146 Class B shares (10 votes each), concentrating voting power significantly with Class B holders. Full vote results for director elections and other proposals are included in the filing. This was a high-participation annual meeting for Accelerant Holdings, reflecting engaged institutional and insider shareholders.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 33
3New insider — initial holdingsApr 33
+ 9 other (4 proxys · 2 10-Qs · 1 routine 8-K · 1 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Hagerty (NYSE:HGTY) versus Accelerant (NYSE:ARX) Financial Analysisdefenseworld.net·6d agoAccelerant Announces Expiration of “Go-Shop” Periodbusinesswire.com·7d agoAre ARX, FULC, EFSI Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders?gurufocus.com·14d agoACCELERANT HOLDINGS INVESTOR ALERT: Julie & Holleman Investigates Proposed Sale of Accelerant Holdings to Thoma Bravo Over Conflicts Involving Controlling Shareholderglobenewswire.com·15d agoAccelerant's Take-Private Deal Raises a Bigger Question for Insurance Stocksmarketbeat.com·26d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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