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RDRDW

Redwire Corp

$RDW·$3.2B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$10.31-3.6%YTD+34.2%1Y+20.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 38 posts2026-08-23: 70 posts499-4%
Price updated 10m ago·X counts updated 9d ago
RDRDW
$RDWRedwire Corp
$10.31-3.64%499 posts-4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $RDW, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

The 'space plus defense' pitch is real — 90% Q2 revenue growth, a record $540M backlog, and BlackRock taking a $196M position — priced to work, waiting on the next print.

Redwire is a mid-cap space and defense-technology company (star trackers, robotic arms, solar arrays, and increasingly national-security RF systems). The story is broadening from a narrow space pure-play into a defense-supplier — up 34% YTD, but the tape is stalled around the 50-day/200-day cluster while it waits for the next print.

  • The revenue growth is unambiguous: Q1 grew 58% year-over-year, Q2 accelerated to roughly 90% at $117M, and consensus models $470M for FY26 — the fastest-growing defense-adjacent name outside the AI/data-center pure-plays.
  • The backlog signal is what buyers are underwriting: a record backlog above $540M gives forward-revenue visibility into FY27, and specific wins (SDA phased-array antenna, ELSA solar array on Moog's METEOR bus, Edge Aerospace license) show the pipeline widening beyond one program.
  • The margin profile is where the risk lives: reported gross margins were only 9-27% versus a peer group closer to 30%+, operating margins deeply negative (-40% to -149%), and FY26 EPS at -$0.87 means this equity trades on revenue and backlog, not near-term earnings.
  • The institutional signal is genuine: BlackRock disclosing a $196M position is a real vote of confidence at this cap — combined with a ~28% consensus target upside, the setup leans toward accumulation into the next print.

The path if it works is a Nov 4 Q3 print that keeps revenue above +50% YoY and shows gross margins pushing above 30% — the tape breaks the stall on 'AI is leaving the planet' framing. What breaks the setup is a soft Q3 with continued margin pressure that reminds holders backlog isn't cash flow — that's when a stalled 3.1-beta name gives back to the $10 support the chart voices already flag.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — Q2 revenue up roughly 90% YoY to $117M, a record backlog above $540M, the SDA phased-array antenna investment, the ELSA solar array baseline on Moog's METEOR bus, the Edge Aerospace license opening a path to orbital data centers — captures the growth story cleanly; the technical caveat some voices name (support at $10 could still be tested) is what the stalled trajectory already tells you.

What to watch: The Nov 4 Q3 print — revenue continuing above +50% YoY plus gross margins pushing above 30% breaks the stall; a soft print with continued margin pressure is what confirms the tape drift toward the $10 support many technicians are watching.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment54 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

The Redwire crowd is treating the pullback as an opportunity in a company they see reshaping from a space pure-play into a diversified national-security supplier. Bulls point to Q2 revenue up roughly 90% year over year to $117M, a record backlog above $540M, an SDA phased-array antenna investment, the ELSA solar array baselined on Moog's METEOR bus, and an Edge Aerospace license opening a path to orbital data centers. Chart voices warn support at $10 could still be tested.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $RDW

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes mission-critical space hardware (solar arrays, antennas, sensors) and digital engineering software for defense and civil space programs.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RDW.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

Defense budget tailwinds — NATO spending commitments and Pentagon procurement acceleration — support backlogs at prime contractors. Commercial space is a separate driver: launch cadence and satellite constellations are pulling RKLB and LUNR on their own momentum, independent of traditional defense spending.

What this means for $RDW

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and sp.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+16.3%YTD
+15.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-15.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-19.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-76.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-29.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
9.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$-0.19$-0.16-21.6%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.40$-0.16-150.0%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$-0.58$-0.16-262.5%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$-0.29$-0.12-141.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $-0.09

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$97.0M+57.9%26.6%-70.9%$-0.40$-12.4M
Q4 FY25$108.8M+56.4%9.6%-75.0%$-0.58$-26.5M
Q3 FY25$103.4M+50.7%16.3%-40.5%$-0.29$-27.8M
Q2 FY25$61.8M-20.9%-30.9%-149%$-1.41$-90.6M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$470.3M$466.9M – $473.6M-$0.87-$1.16 – -$0.496
FY27$569.1M$559.6M – $578.5M-$0.53-$0.99 – -$0.216
FY28$664.4M$648.8M – $682.5M-$0.24-$0.25 – -$0.231

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.27%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+2.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 123.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today8.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.085-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 11Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.1M sh$23.0MSellMay 18Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector15.2M sh$209.6MSellApr 22Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector21.4M sh$231.8MSellApr 21Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector977.9K sh$10.3MSellApr 20Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.8M sh$18.1MSellApr 17Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector2.0M sh$21.9MSellApr 16Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector3.1M sh$33.2MSellApr 15Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector692.9K sh$6.7MSellApr 14Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.2M sh$11.9MSellApr 13Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector790.4K sh$7.7M
1–10 of 20
+ 25 other (12 awards · 11 inkinds · 1 inthemoney · 1 conversion) in window

See when $RDW insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 143
AI summary

James H. Romaker filed an initial Form 3 on July 14, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership of Redwire Corporation (RDW) securities. This filing establishes Romaker's Section 16(a) reporting position as a newly appointed officer or director. Specific securities held were not detailed in the excerpt.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) announced on July 14, 2026, the appointment of John Heston as an independent director to its board of directors and as a member of the Audit Committee. Heston is a retired Ernst & Young partner with 38 years of public accounting experience, including 24 years as a partner. His appointment adds significant financial oversight expertise to Redwire's board as the company continues its growth in the space infrastructure sector.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) amended its credit agreement on June 30, 2026, increasing the revolving credit facility from $30 million to $50 million and simultaneously prepaying $40 million of term loans, reducing the outstanding term loan balance to $50 million. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. acts as administrative and collateral agent. The combined effect is a larger, more flexible revolver paired with reduced fixed debt obligations. This is a positive balance sheet action — improved liquidity headroom and lower term debt, consistent with Redwire's positioning as a growing defense and space tech company.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 98-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Redwire Corporation established a new at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program on June 9, 2026, with an equity distribution agreement allowing sales of up to $500 million of common stock through eleven agents including Truist Securities, JPMorgan, and BofA Securities. Sales may be made on NYSE or in block trades and privately negotiated transactions; agents earn up to 3% commission. This creates a $500M dilution overhang via ongoing ATM sales for working capital and general corporate purposes.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 9424B5
AI summary

Redwire Corporation filed a prospectus supplement (424B5) registering up to $500 million of common stock for sale under its at-the-market offering program, using the shelf registration (Reg. No. 333-289380). Agent commission is up to 3% of gross proceeds; the last reported sale price was $18.57 per share as of June 8, 2026. This is the prospectus companion to the simultaneously-filed 8-K (Item 1.01) — both together establish the $500M ATM facility now active for ongoing dilutive share sales.

8-KShareholder voteMay 208-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07) and an other-event disclosure (Item 8.01). Redwire is a Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure and technology company listed on the NYSE. The additional Item 8.01 alongside the routine annual meeting disclosure may signal a concurrent business announcement; space infrastructure companies with defense customers often have material contract-related news.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 20SC 13D/A
AI summary

AE Red Holdings, LLC, a Boca Raton, Florida-based entity, filed Amendment No. 21 to its Schedule 13D on May 18, 2026 regarding Redwire Corporation (RDW, CUSIP 75776W103). AE Red Holdings has been a major shareholder and affiliated party of Redwire, the Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure company. This 21st amendment reflects a change in AE Red Holdings' stake or stated intentions with respect to Redwire; given the affiliate relationship, these disclosures track closely with Redwire's corporate governance.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 6424B5
AI summary

RDW filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-06, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $8.69 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

+ 20 other (5 SC 13D/As · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

BlackRock Inc. Takes $196.51 Million Position in Redwire Corporation $RDWdefenseworld.net·4d agoThe AI Race Is Leaving the Planetinvestorplace.com·5d agoCan Redwire's Space and Defense Portfolio Drive a New Growth Phase?zacks.com·6d agoWall Street Analysts Believe Redwire Corporation (RDW) Could Rally 27.94%: Here's is How to Tradezacks.com·7d agoRedwire: Market Optimism Overlooks Dismal Resultsseekingalpha.com·7d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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