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NINIO

NIO Inc.

$NIO·$9.2B·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$3.58-0.6%YTD-32.7%1Y-49.0%
Price updated 3m ago·X counts updated 4d ago
NINIO
$NIONIO Inc.
$3.58-0.56%1.5k posts1.1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $NIO on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,503X posts · last 7 days
Aug 31Sep 13
Chatter Meter
1.1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $NIO's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 82% of tracked names.

Mixed sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data23 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

NIO's tape is genuinely split. Bulls stack the case for a fundamentals turn — Q2 revenue $4.74B, deliveries +49.4% YoY, Q1 gross margin at a four-year-high ~19%, adj op profit turning positive, and ES9 at ~30% of NIO-brand volume — and float the unpriced optionality of US market access as a Trump/Xi state-visit tailwind. Bears counter with a new 52-week low, RSI 22, Q3 guidance implying only 0.3-3.1% sequential growth, and the Slotkin-Moreno bill possibly locking Chinese EVs out entirely. Both sides are loud.

Read what X is saying about $NIO

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $NIO — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-16

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Chinese EV maker back at a 52-week low with a scary balance sheet — deliveries are growing, cash isn't.

NIO is a Chinese premium EV maker, once positioned as the domestic Tesla and now a much cheaper stock than that framing survives. A fresh 52-week low into an already-broken tape says the market is done giving the story the benefit of the doubt.

  • The delivery side is doing what management said it would: August deliveries were 35,836 units up 14.5% YoY, and Q1 revenue was up 122% YoY — the volume story is intact and 0.54x trailing sales is genuinely cheap by any auto benchmark.
  • The balance sheet is the specific reason the tape breaks anyway: debt-to-equity is 6.12x, operating margin is negative, and free cash flow was negative $14B in the trailing year — that ratio at $3.60 is why bears are calling $3 a margin-call level, not a metaphor.
  • The chart says distribution has taken over: 1% of the 52-week range, 20% below the 50-day, 30% below the 200-day, RSI at 22 — this is not oversold-and-bouncing, this is a stock the market thinks needs to raise equity at a lower price first.

A turn needs a Nov 24 print with cash-burn narrowing to sub-¥5B and any credible external financing commitment — either meaningfully changes the read. Another quarter of deep burn or a Chinese consumer-EV price-war escalation is what forces the equity raise the tape is anticipating.

Agrees with X sentimentAgrees. The 'most hated stonk' framing and the $3 margin-call worry are the honest bear case; bulls have the P/S argument but not the cash question. UBS's $8.50 target needs the balance sheet to survive first.

What to watch: Nov 24 Q2 print — cash burn rate, capex guide, and any financing announcement. Cash burn narrowing plus a credible strategic partner steadies the tape; another burn quarter or a dilutive raise breaks $3.

On the calendar: 2026-11-24 — Q2 earnings

52wk lowhigh leveragedilution risk

Read the AI verdict on $NIO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and sells premium smart EVs in China with a differentiated battery-swapping network for rapid energy replenishment.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NIO.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

JPMorgan's robotaxi note shows cash flows concentrating at TSLA equity rather than a public network; Goldman's 6.5M humanoid robot forecast doubles down on Tesla as the multi-platform beneficiary of autonomous buildout. Legacy OEMs remain caught between tariff cost structures and margin-dilutive EV scale-up while Chinese brands (BYD, NIO) continue compressing mid-market pricing.

What this means for $NIO

Partial — battery-swap network differentiates in China and ES8 SUV is #1 by cumulative Jan–Aug sales in its class; stock sentiment strongly negative despite real commercial traction.

Industry benchmark

14-name peer basket
-21.9%YTD
-24.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-14.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-19.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-329%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
15.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
6.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Sep 1, 2026$-0.04$-0.07+42.9%
Q1 2026May 21, 2026$-0.03$-0.08+60.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.01$-0.05+120.0%
Q3 2025Nov 25, 2025$-0.16$-0.22+28.6%
Next earningsTue, Nov 24·consensus EPS $-0.06

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$25.5B+112.2%19.0%-1.2%$-0.20—
Q4 FY25$34.2B+73.4%17.5%1.5%$0.05—
Q3 FY25$21.8B+16.7%13.9%-16.2%$-1.51—
Q2 FY25$19.0B+9.0%10.0%-25.8%$-2.31$-13.9B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$131.2B$123.4B – $138.2B-$0.66-$1.04 – -$0.2513
FY27$154.1B$144.1B – $158.6B$0.37-$0.74 – $0.7420
FY28$173.1B$135.6B – $245.5B$1.43$0.36 – $3.0525
FY29$179.4B$154.3B – $223.7B$1.21$0.99 – $1.6012
FY30$183.4B$157.7B – $228.7B$1.27$1.04 – $1.6812

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.1%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-19.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-30.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.9B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.925-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 11 other (6 exempts · 5 inkinds) in window

See when $NIO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 17 other (16 6-Ks · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Heliborne Magnetic Survey Reveals Internal Architecture of the Oka Carbonatitenewsfilecorp.com·20h agoEV Charging Stocks Climb as Small Caps Catch a Bid: Blink Charging Jumps 6%, ChargePoint Rises 4%, EVgo Ticks Up247wallst.com·1d agoAdvance Auto Parts vs. NIO: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·2d agoNIO vs. Tesla: Which EV Stock Has the Better Investment Case?zacks.com·3d agoWhat's Going On With NIO Stock Friday?benzinga.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

EVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $NIO on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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