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NINIO

NIO Inc.

$NIO·$11B·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$4.88+0.8%YTD-9.0%1Y+0.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-25: 119 posts2026-07-26: 127 posts2026-07-27: 187 posts2026-07-28: 241 posts2026-07-29: 401 posts2026-07-30: 310 posts2026-07-31: 247 posts1,635+11%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
NINIO
$NIONIO Inc.
$4.88+0.83%1.6k posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NIO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-01

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Chinese EV maker whose monthly orders are exploding — Goldman is now on board, and the tape is coiling into a Sep 1 print.

NIO is the premium Chinese EV maker famous for its battery-swap infrastructure (as opposed to plug-in charging) — an alternative EV thesis that requires network build-out but delivers a differentiated user experience. After years of grinding lower, the fundamentals are inflecting and Goldman just endorsed the turnaround narrative.

Where the turnaround signals are:

  • Revenue is inflecting hard from the low base: Q1 2026 revenue ran ¥25.5B, up 112% YoY (last four surprises were beats of 60%, 120%, 29%, 17%) — the growth-in-context that a turnaround needs to become a re-rating.
  • Monthly order data is the load-bearing datapoint: Goldman's tracker shows monthly orders going Jan 16k → Feb 13k → Mar 38k → Apr 44k → May 86k → Jun 77k → Jul 41k (MTD) — a genuine breakout from the flat 15-20k baseline.
  • The battery-swap network is a real moat, and it's being expanded: 5th-generation swap stations are rolling out with a target of 1,000+ new stations in 2026 (network to 4,600+), plus a Battery-as-a-Service option priced at ¥93,300.
  • Unit economics are still upside-down: gross margin ran 19% last quarter (up from 10%) and operating margin -1% (up from -26%) — margins are moving in the right direction but the business still burns cash.
  • The 'Firefly Habitat' consumer/dealer channel launch and Wall Street analyst upgrades (per news headlines) contrast with a still-bearish retail sentiment — the mismatch is the setup.

Sep 1 earnings is the fact-check — a print that confirms the Goldman monthly-order trajectory with margins staying in the black turns the coiled setup into an actual breakout; a soft print or a Chinese-EV-policy negative headline (the Jul 31 news reference to 'China EV policy signals' is worth watching) resets the tape back to the base.

Agrees with X sentimentX's 'turnaround is real' framing is now Wall Street's framing too — the monthly order data (Jan 16k → May 86k) is not a chart-narrative, it's tracked customer intent that shows up in the quarterly numbers with a lag. The one thing X isn't discussing enough is Chinese EV policy risk; the Jul 31 news reference to 'China EV policy signals' is the swing variable.

What to watch: Q2 earnings Sep 1 — the load-bearing lines are monthly delivery figures matching the Goldman-tracked order pace, gross margin holding at 20%+, and battery-swap station rollout progress. A clean print restarts the coiled setup; a soft delivery number or a Chinese EV policy headline lets the tape drop back into the base.

On the calendar: 2026-09-01 — Q2 2026 earnings

turnaround betchina evbattery swap moatcoiling pre earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment154 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-01

Sentiment on NIO is a defiant turnaround narrative: bulls point to CEO William Li's $23M CXMT stake now worth $132M, the 5th-gen battery-swap station rollout, ES8/ES9 taking 39% of the RMB 400K NEV market, and multiple Wall Street PTs implying 40-66% upside. Renaissance Technologies buying is being read as institutional validation. Skeptics note a broken daily support and warn 'this cannot be more clear, NIO is a $47 stock today' feels detached from a $4-5 tape. Chinese-language accounts are loud on the bull side.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $NIO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and sells premium smart EVs in China with a differentiated battery-swapping network for rapid energy replenishment.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NIO.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — ICE truck and SUV margins remain the profitability floor for legacy OEMs, funding EV transition losses that still drag Ford and Stellantis earnings.

What this means for $NIO

Neutral — Designs and sells premium smart EVs in China with a differentiated battery-swapping network for rapid energy replenishment; limited read-through from auto - manufacturers macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

14-name peer basket
-20.4%YTD
-20.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-14.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-19.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-329%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
15.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
6.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 21, 2026$-0.03$-0.08+60.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.01$-0.05+120.0%
Q3 2025Nov 25, 2025$-0.16$-0.22+28.6%
Q2 2025Sep 2, 2025$-0.26$-0.31+16.6%
Next earningsTue, Sep 1·consensus EPS $-0.07

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$25.5B+112.2%19.0%-1.2%$-0.20—
Q4 FY25$34.2B+73.4%17.5%1.5%$0.05—
Q3 FY25$21.8B+16.7%13.9%-16.2%$-1.51—
Q2 FY25$19.0B+9.0%10.0%-25.8%$-2.31$-13.9B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$137.4B$125.0B – $147.3B-$0.43-$0.90 – $0.1717
FY27$161.3B$151.1B – $173.6B$0.73-$0.42 – $1.6719
FY28$177.9B$150.1B – $249.0B$1.74$0.40 – $3.3925
FY29$189.2B$160.9B – $237.6B$2.65$2.13 – $3.5312
FY30$193.3B$164.4B – $242.7B$2.50$2.01 – $3.3312

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.14%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-11.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 6 other (3 exempts · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $NIO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 23 other (17 6-Ks · 4 3s · 1 20-F · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

NIO Inc. Provides July 2026 Delivery Updateglobenewswire.com·2d agoTop Stocks Set to Benefit From Rising EV and AV Adoptionzacks.com·3d agoNIO Stock Pauses Following China EV Policy Signals: What Investors Need to Knowbenzinga.com·3d agoReddit Is Bearish on Nio. Wall Street Couldn't Disagree More.247wallst.com·3d agoNIO Inc. (NIO) Laps the Stock Market: Here's Whyzacks.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

EVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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