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NINIO

NIO Inc.

$NIO·$12B·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$5.02-0.6%YTD-5.6%1Y+46.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
3,278
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 20d ago
NINIO
NIO Inc.$NIO
$5.02-0.59%3.3k posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NIO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-06-18

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Chinese EV name with deliveries doubling, GM at four-year highs — and the stock still trading like the bankruptcy thesis didn't die.

NIO is the Chinese premium EV maker, and the operational data has genuinely turned: Q1 deliveries reportedly grew from 42k to 83k (+98% YoY), gross margin recovered from 7.6% to 19% (a four-year high), R&D spend down 40% as the platform stabilises, and CEO Li Bin guiding 40-50% growth in 2026. The company just started taping out its own chips. Q1 revenue grew 112% YoY to ~$3.5B at a 19% gross margin and roughly break-even operating margin, with the stock at $5.05 trading near a $12B market cap against roughly $20B trailing revenue and ~$7B of cash. Position is 40% of the 52-week range, 13% below the 50-day MA and 11% below the 200-day — the chart hasn't believed the turnaround yet. Debt-to-equity of 6.1x and structural China-EV competition remain the real risks.

Agrees with X sentimentAligned with the operational-turnaround bull thread — 98% delivery growth and a 19% GM is genuinely the four-year-high cycle inflection people have been waiting on, and the bankruptcy bears are now mocking nothing more than their own framing — but the debt-to-equity of 6.1x is still the part the cheerleaders skate past.

What to watch: September 1 print: gross margin holding above 18%, Q2/Q3 delivery trajectory, and any explicit operating-margin breakeven timing. Margin compression or a delivery miss is what extends the gap between the operating story and the tape; a clean print is what closes it.

On the calendar: 2026-09-01 — Q2 earnings

beta missing

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment174 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-18

NIO chatter centers on a Q2 delivery guide of 110,000-115,000 units, a record May with deliveries up 62 percent year over year, and the ES8 and ES9 driving the highest passenger-vehicle market share in Shanghai and Hefei. Bulls cite a clean turnaround story with gross margins recovering from 7.6 to 19.0 percent, R&D down 40 percent, near non-GAAP breakeven, an industry-leading vehicle-margin claim and entering the Greek market in Athens. The stock at roughly $5-6 trades at 0.6x sales and 1.7x cash with a $12 billion cap, which bulls frame as a generational mispricing. Frustration with the lagging price action is widespread but conviction remains and $7-$14 is being cited as the next target.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $NIO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and sells premium smart EVs in China with a differentiated battery-swapping network for rapid energy replenishment.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NIO.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

ICE truck and SUV margins remain the profitability floor for legacy OEMs, funding EV transition losses that still drag Ford and Stellantis earnings. OpenAI's robotics division launch this week adds a new competitive vector to Tesla's FSD/robotaxi moat, while NIO and XPEV budget-model expansion continues compressing Tesla China pricing.

What this means for $NIO

Direct beneficiary — NIO's battery-swapping network and premium EV positioning in China benefit from domestic EV demand growth; swap infrastructure creates structural switching-cost moat versus price-competing peers.

See how Auto - Manufacturers shapes $NIO

  • Where the industry is in its cycle and the catalysts moving it now
  • What this means specifically for $NIO's next move
  • Peer-basket or ETF benchmark you can use to gut-check the read
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Industry benchmark

8-name peer basket
-15.9%YTD
+1.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-14.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-19.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-329%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
15.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
6.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 21, 2026$-0.03$-0.08+60.0%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$0.01$-0.05+120.0%
Q3 2025Nov 25, 2025$-0.21$-0.22+5.5%
Q2 2025Sep 2, 2025$-0.26$-0.31+16.6%
Next earningsTue, Sep 1·consensus EPS $-0.07

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$25.5B+112.2%19.0%-1.2%$-0.20—
Q4 FY25$34.2B+73.4%17.5%1.5%$0.05—
Q3 FY25$21.8B+16.7%13.9%-16.2%$-1.51—
Q2 FY25$19.0B+9.0%10.0%-25.8%$-2.31$-13.9B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 26 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$137.4B$124.7B – $148.9B-$0.65-$1.06 – $0.2016
FY27$162.2B$151.2B – $177.7B$0.61-$0.49 – $1.8221
FY28$179.4B$154.0B – $217.5B$1.61$0.37 – $3.1026
FY29$191.7B$164.6B – $232.4B$2.71$2.21 – $3.4625
FY30$195.8B$168.1B – $237.3B$2.56$2.09 – $3.2615

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.36%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-15.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-13.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.9B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Know if $NIO is setting up — or just chopping

  • Volume multiple vs 30-day baseline — catch unusual interest before the move
  • Position vs 50d & 200d MAs and 52-week range — trend direction at a glance
  • Float bucket, beta, and active-offering flags — what kind of stock you're trading
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Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 6 other (3 exempts · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $NIO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for NIO on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 25 other (17 6-Ks · 4 3s · 2 SC 13D/As · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

EVs Are Out of the Headlines. That's Exactly Why These 2 Stocks Are Buys.fool.com·11h agoWhat's Going On With NIO Stock Thursday?benzinga.com·17h agoNIO Stock Pauses Wednesday: What Traders Should Watch Next Amid Regulatory Tensionsbenzinga.com·2d agoEV-maker Rivian cuts hundreds of jobs after launching new SUVfoxbusiness.com·2d agoNio Delivered 37,705 EVs in May and Is Making Its Own Chips Now. Can It Compete With BYD at Scale?fool.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

EVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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