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MKMKL

Markel Corporation

$MKL·$23B·Insurance - Property & Casualty·Financial Services
$1850.13+1.4%YTD-16.5%1Y-1.7%
Price updated 1d ago·X counts updated 44d ago
MKMKL
$MKLMarkel Corporation
$1,850.13+1.40%18 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $MKL on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

18X posts · last 7 days
No mention history yet
Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-12

Posters frame Markel as a compounder to accumulate on weakness, celebrating the drawdown that sits it alongside PepsiCo and McDonald's on a quality-near-52-week-lows list. One 'constant buyer below $1800' voice sets the tone, backed by an earnings recap highlighting 16% five-year operating EPS CAGR and management buying back its own stock. The $205M State National reserve is noted but shrugged off.

Read what X is saying about $MKL

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MKL — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-08-20

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Markel Group — insurance-and-Ventures compounder — near 52-week lows on a State National reserve issue that's compressing the multiple.

Markel Group is a specialty insurance-and-diversified-holdings company (often called 'baby Berkshire') with a large P&C insurance business plus a growing Markel Ventures collection of operating businesses. The stock is down 12% year-on-year on a $205M State National reserve charge that's compressed the multiple.

  • Revenue tape is decent but earnings are noisy: Q2 revenue grew 18% year-on-year but Q2 EPS missed by 36% and Q1 missed by 18% — the reserve-development-driven misses are what's suppressing the multiple, though the underlying operating businesses continue to compound.
  • The valuation is genuinely cheap on adjusted basis: 10x trailing earnings and 7x EV-to-EBITDA on a $23B market cap — this is the cheapest MKL has been in years, and the sell-side FY26 consensus of $103 EPS puts the forward multiple at 17x, well below the historical 20-25x range.
  • The X observation captures the setup: 'constant buyer below $1800' framing plus grouping with PepsiCo and McDonald's on a 'quality-near-52-week-lows' list — this is the exact contrarian pattern where compounders get de-rated on temporary issues before recovering.

Trajectory is stalled at 15% of the 52-week range as the market waits for a clean quarter without reserve development; the Nov 4 Q3 print needs a positive EPS surprise plus reaffirmed FY26 guide — another reserve charge or a Markel Ventures softness breaks the setup deeper into the discount zone.

Agrees with X sentimentX's 'compounder to accumulate on weakness' framing plus the 16% five-year operating-EPS CAGR and management buying back its own stock is on the mechanics. Shrugging off the $205M State National reserve is aggressive but not unreasonable given the compounding story — the tape is priced for the reserve issue and any clean Q3 restarts the setup.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 earnings — positive EPS surprise plus reaffirmed FY26 guide restarts the recovery; another reserve development charge or a Markel Ventures softness breaks the setup deeper into the discount zone.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 2026 earnings

reserve development overhang

Read the AI verdict on $MKL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Specialty insurer and industrial conglomerate known as baby Berkshire, combining niche underwriting with Markel Ventures operating businesses.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Insurance - Property & Casualty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MKL.

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services

No material change from last week — Hard P&C pricing cycle with premium rates still outpacing loss-cost inflation and elevated investment yields remain the twin earnings drivers.

What this means for $MKL

Partial — insurance earnings follow combined ratio and investment income dynamics, partially correlated to industry macro; Markel Corporation operates as a multifaceted financial conglomerate, engaging i.

Top industry ETF

$KIESPDR S&P Insurance ETF
+1.1%YTD
+11.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
4.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
17.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
12.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
62.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$19.51$30.64-36.3%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$21.61$26.47-18.4%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$34.45$27.62+24.7%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$30.90$24.02+28.6%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $27.63

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$5.2B+17.8%59.1%29.2%$93.08$384.5M
Q1 FY26$3.6B+6.7%67.1%-7.7%$-18.90$-31.4M
Q4 FY25$4.2B+9.9%69.6%17.4%$48.95$599.1M
Q3 FY25$4.4B-2.5%55.0%22.3%$59.44$1.2B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$15.3B$14.4B – $16.4B$94.66$88.61 – $99.704
FY27$15.3B$14.0B – $16.6B$112.72$105.95 – $120.264
FY28$15.5B$14.3B – $17.0B$116.23$87.09 – $141.634

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.27%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-5.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 12.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.645-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 22Greta J HarrisDirector76 sh$140KBuyMay 7Diane LeopoldDirector50 sh$89KBuyMay 6Diane LeopoldDirector100 sh$179KBuyMay 1Puckett A. LynneDirector57 sh$102K
+ 27 other (14 others · 9 awards · 4 inkinds) in window

See when $MKL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentSep 14SC 13D/A
8-KOfficer or director changeSep 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 9 other (2 13Fs · 2 10-Qs · 1 N-PX · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Markel strengthens Marine & Energy Liability team in London with key appointmentsgurufocus.com·3d agoMarkel strengthens Marine & Energy Liability team in London with key appointmentsprnewswire.com·3d agoMarkel Canada Launches Dedicated Insurance Proposition for Contractors and Trades Businessesbusinesswire.com·5d agoMarkel Expands U.S. Energy With Chemical, Oil & Gas Property Offeringzacks.com·9d agoMarkel International launches new chemical, oil & gas related energy property offering for small to midsize US-domiciled businessesgurufocus.com·10d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $MKL on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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