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LVLVWR

LiveWire Group, Inc.

$LVWR·$221M·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$1.34+16.5%YTD-68.3%1Y-67.5%
Price updated 5d ago·X counts updated 7d ago
LVLVWR
$LVWRLiveWire Group, Inc.
$1.34+16.52%4 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $LVWR on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

4X posts · last 7 days
Aug 23Sep 2
Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-04

LiveWire chatter is short-timeframe trader flavor. Multiple daily-watchlist posts flag LVWR alongside INLF and DFNS as 'top 3 stocks' each morning, with claims of consecutive-day nailed picks. One trader waited for a 'death candle' to short but the community is uniformly setup-driven. There is no fundamental discussion or bearish take-down — the tone is pure momentum-and-pattern.

Read what X is saying about $LVWR

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $LVWR — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-03

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Harley's electric-motorcycle spinoff still burning cash on ~$5M-a-quarter revenue — compliance regained but no path to breakeven.

LiveWire Group is Harley-Davidson's public electric-motorcycle spinoff (~$221M market value) trading at $1.20, down ~68% year-to-date and ~67% over the past year.

  • Q1 revenue $5.1M was up ~86% year-on-year but down ~55% sequentially — the year-on-year comp is off a very low base and the sequential drop is not what a growth company shows.
  • Q4 2025 revenue $11.4M was up only ~5.5% year-on-year — the underlying growth rate is very modest given how thin the base is.
  • Q1 gross margin was -10% and operating margin -345% — the company is spending several dollars for every dollar of revenue.
  • Sell-side FY26 model $181M revenue and -$0.27 EPS — analysts model a big top-line acceleration to justify the current run-rate.
  • The company regained NYSE listing compliance — a defensive announcement, not offensive.
  • S4 Honcho U.S. dealer deliveries began — that is the first meaningful commercial motion on the new lower-priced model line.
  • Float ~10M shares (bucket 'low'), beta 1.65, stock is at ~10% of the 52-week range and ~44% below the 200-day — the tape is bottom-of-range.

Next earnings November 4. The relevant read is whether S4 Honcho unit sales scale, gross margin turns positive, and whether Harley provides additional capital or a strategic decision on the spinoff.

What to watch: November 4 earnings for S4 Honcho unit sales, gross-margin trajectory, and any Harley-Davidson statement on ongoing capital support or a buyback of the LiveWire stake.

On the calendar: Q3 earnings on 2026-11-04

Read the AI verdict on $LVWR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Harley-Davidson-backed electric motorcycle maker selling zero-emission two-wheelers under the LiveWire brand across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LVWR.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

Tariff-driven cost structures and the stubborn EV adoption curve remain twin headwinds for legacy OEMs, while Chinese EV makers (BYD, Li, NIO, XPEV) continue to pressure global volume pricing. The structural margin squeeze persists: ICE profitability funds EV capex commitments that have not yet scaled to breakeven.

What this means for $LVWR

Partial — upstream oil & gas exposure ties to commodity price cycle; LiveWire Group, Inc.

Industry benchmark

15-name peer basket
-20.5%YTD
-22.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-3.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-67.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-258%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-18.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
10.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-137%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-10.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 23, 2026$-0.09——
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.09——
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$-0.09——
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-0.10——
Next earningsWed, Nov 4

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$5.1M+86.5%-10.5%-345%$-0.09$-13.7M
Q4 FY25$11.4M+5.5%0.8%-156%$-0.09$-8.9M
Q3 FY25$5.7M+28.3%-50.9%-330%$-0.10$-14.0M
Q2 FY25$5.9M-8.9%9.3%-311%$-0.09$-16.3M

Forward consensus

1-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$181.0M$181.0M – $181.0M-$0.27-$0.27 – -$0.271

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.—Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.9%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-45.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 10.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.β1.655-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 31William L CornogDirector216 sh$486SellJul 31Kjell GrunerDirector94.1K sh$199KSellJul 30Kjell GrunerDirector7.1K sh$14KSellJul 29Jeremiah NienhuisHead of Strat. & Product Ops.10.7K sh$25KSellJul 29Karim DonnezCEO230.6K sh$537K
+ 7 other (4 awards · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $LVWR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 38-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

LiveWire Group, Inc. disclosed two board changes effective late August/early September 2026: Paul Krause resigned from the Board of Directors effective August 31, 2026, and Matt Ryan (currently Chief Marketing and Technology Officer of Harley-Davidson) was appointed to replace him effective September 1, 2026. Ryan will receive no additional director compensation as he is already compensated by Harley-Davidson (LiveWire's controlling shareholder). This is an admin board transition with no independent compensation change; no strategic shift implied.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 213
AI summary

Erica Case filed an initial Form 3 for LiveWire Group (LVWR) on August 21, 2026, reporting beneficial ownership as of August 13, 2026. She holds approximately 85,500 restricted stock units vesting over 2024-2029 grant cycles (3,929 RSUs vesting Feb 2027; 32,214 RSUs vesting Feb 2027-28; 49,357 RSUs vesting Feb 2027-29). Standard executive/director Form 3 reporting multi-year RSU grants; the vesting schedule indicates ongoing service-based equity compensation.

8-KListing / delisting noticeJul 298-K — Item 3.01: Listing / delisting notice · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

LiveWire Group, Inc (LVWR) received a listing deficiency notice from NYSE (Item 3.01), filed 2026-07-29. Deficiency notices give companies typically 180 days to restore compliance. Investors should monitor the company's compliance plan and remediation timeline.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 228-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LiveWire Group completed the acquisition of substantially all assets of Dust Motorcycles, Inc. (design, development, manufacture, and distribution of electric motorcycles, dirt bikes, and related powertrain technology) on May 18, 2026. Consideration included $375,000 cash plus $500,000 in LiveWire shares plus additional equity consideration to selling holders. Strategic bolt-on acquisition expanding LiveWire's electric two-wheel portfolio.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 198-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

LiveWire Group issued a press release on May 19, 2026 regarding the Dust Motorcycles asset acquisition announced May 18, 2026; the full asset purchase agreement will be filed in a separate 8-K. Supplementary press release for the LiveWire/Dust Motorcycles acquisition.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Dan Lehrbaum (3700 W Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee WI) filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement for LiveWire Group as of May 6, 2026. Administrative disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Jeremiah Nienhuis (3700 W. Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee WI) filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement for LiveWire Group as of May 6, 2026. Administrative disclosure for a second LiveWire executive.

+ 7 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

S4 Honcho™ Begins U.S. Dealer Deliveries as LiveWire Names Nationwide Giveaway Winnerbusinesswire.com·20d agoLiveWire Group Regains Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing Standardsgurufocus.com·31d agoLiveWire Group Regains Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing Standardsbusinesswire.com·31d agoOne Year Later, LiveWire Remains Extremely Riskyseekingalpha.com·36d agoFrom Sturgis to Sliding Sideways in Milwaukee: LiveWire and Gas Monkey Garage Reunite to Build a Custom S4 Honcho™ for New Flat Track Race Classbusinesswire.com·37d ago

In themes

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $LVWR on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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