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CLCLMT

Calumet Inc.

$CLMT·$4.6B·Chemicals - Specialty·Basic Materials
$53.13-0.7%YTD+110.2%1Y+211.8%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 1d ago
CLCLMT
$CLMTCalumet Inc.
$53.13-0.69%141 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $CLMT on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

141X posts · last 7 days
Aug 21Sep 5
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $CLMT's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data59 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-06

Calumet bulls are running deep fundamental models — full 2025 SREs from EPA, MaxSAF Phase 2 delivering 70% of the benefit for 15% of the capital, Wainwright raising PT to $75, and 20M gallons of previously wasted renewable LPG becoming a saleable product. Bulls point to a MU-like earnings inflection and $90-100 short-term once the '29s are called. No visible bear voice.

Read what X is saying about $CLMT

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $CLMT — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-05

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Calumet is up 212% in a year on Montana Renewables SAF economics — Wainwright $75 PT, RIN prices exploding, but a Pomerantz investigation is active.

Calumet Inc. is a specialty hydrocarbon and renewable fuels company — the Montana Renewables (MRL) subsidiary is the key driver, producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel under the RIN/BTC federal credit regime.

What the setup looks like:

  • The business is operationally stressed but the credit environment is accretive — Q1 revenue grew 3.6% YoY to $1.03B with a -8.5% gross margin and -17% operating margin; Q2 EPS missed consensus by 1,717% at -$1.09 on the reported basis.
  • The valuation is speculative — 0.73x TTM PS on a $4.63B cap with FY27 EPS consensus turning positive at $1.20 means the market is pricing in the SAF/RD margin recovery and RIN economics carrying through 2027.
  • The RIN environment is the load-bearing tailwind — RIN price surged to $2.35 and RD index margin at $3.85 is the highest ever seen; both Calumet refineries received full 2025 SREs (~$169.3M RIN obligation removed).
  • Motiva refinery shutdown (Tropical Storm Edouard) is a genuine catalyst — reduces base oil supply near-term, benefiting CLMT's specialty operations.
  • The Pomerantz Law Firm investigation announced 9/3 is a real legal overhang — even if unfounded, it creates ongoing litigation risk that has historically dragged multiples.
  • DOE loan amendment on 8/28 reduced max guaranteed principal from $1.44B to $815.8M plus $232.8M capitalized interest — this restructures the MRL funding but is not obviously positive.

Acceleration continues while RIN prices stay elevated and SAF economics keep expanding — Q3 earnings on Nov 6 with visible MRL revenue and MaxSAF commentary extends this to fresh highs; a RIN price collapse, Pomerantz investigation escalation, or fresh dilution hits the multiple. A break below $45 would open real give-back.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the crowd's RIN/RD framing — the credit environment and Motiva tailwind are real. The tension: at 96% of the 52-week range with a Pomerantz investigation and DOE loan amendment (reducing max guarantee), the 'MU-like earnings inflection' framing understates the legal and funding-mechanics risk.

What to watch: Nov 6 Q3 earnings — visible MRL revenue plus MaxSAF commentary extends this to fresh highs; a RIN price collapse, Pomerantz escalation, or dilution hits the multiple.

On the calendar: 2026-11-06 — Q3 2026 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $CLMT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Refines specialty petroleum-derived products (solvents, waxes, lubricants) for industrial and consumer markets in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Chemicals - Specialty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CLMT.

Chemicals - Specialty · Basic Materials

Specialty chemical demand is gradually recovering from destocking; AI-chip manufacturing requires ultra-pure specialty chemicals driving structural volume growth for semiconductor-materials suppliers. Battery materials (lithium, specialty electrolytes) remain under price pressure.

What this means for $CLMT

Neutral — Calumet Specialty Products; specialty hydrocarbons/lubricants, limited AI-materials angle.

Industry benchmark

9-name peer basket
+24.9%YTD
+12.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-16.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-0.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-0.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
21.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
5.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 7, 2026$-1.09$0.07-1717.0%
Q1 2026May 8, 2026$-3.64$-0.57-538.6%
Q4 2025Feb 27, 2026$-0.43$-0.67+35.8%
Q3 2025Nov 7, 2025$-3.61$-0.35-930.9%
Next earningsFri, Nov 6·consensus EPS $1.44

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.0B+3.6%-8.5%-16.6%$-3.64$-99.4M
Q4 FY25$1.0B+9.4%-0.3%-6.1%$-0.43$103.8M
Q3 FY25$1.1B-2.0%34.7%30.0%$3.61$92.0M
Q2 FY25$1.0B-9.4%-4.2%-9.8%$-1.70$-11.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.9B$4.7B – $5.1B-$2.36-$2.57 – -$2.164
FY27$4.7B$3.9B – $5.5B$2.21$0.69 – $3.594
FY28$5.0B$4.5B – $5.6B$3.12$2.70 – $3.561
FY29$5.7B$5.1B – $6.3B$2.48$2.14 – $2.832
FY30$5.9B$5.3B – $6.6B$3.57$3.08 – $4.082

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.96%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+21.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+67.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 58.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.725-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 1Daniel J SajkowskiDirector4.2K sh$153KSellMay 15Group Heritage13(d) 10% Group Member627.0K sh$20.4MSellApr 1Daniel J SajkowskiDirector3.3K sh$114K
+ 35 other (21 awards · 8 exempts · 4 inkinds · 1 gift · 1 inthemoney) in window

See when $CLMT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementSep 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Calumet Inc.'s subsidiary Montana Renewables, LLC (MRL) amended its DOE Loan Guarantee Agreement on August 28, 2026 (First Amendment), reducing the maximum guaranteed principal from $1.44 billion to $815.8 million and the maximum capitalized interest to $232.8 million, restructuring the renewable fuels facility in Great Falls, MT from a large greenfield new-build to a smaller-scoped project repurposing existing equipment. The amendment also reduces the Base Cash Equity Reserve Account threshold from $80.0 million to $20.0 million and adjusts liquidity, construction, and operating covenants. A significant capital restructuring: Calumet halved its DOE-backed financing commitment in exchange for a more capital-efficient project design, reducing execution risk while maintaining DOE partnership.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 5SC 13D/A
AI summary

With filed Amendment No. 1 to Schedule 13D disclosing updated beneficial ownership in CLMT (CLMT). The filing covers approximately 14,523,185 shares of CLMT. The position is held for potential M&A activity. Schedule 13D amendments are required when a 5%-or-greater holder's ownership, intent, or plans change materially, providing transparency into concentrated positions that could influence corporate governance or trigger M&A activity.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 43
AI summary

Sanders Bradford Timothy filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of CLMT securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at CLMT.

8-KShareholder voteJun 38-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CLMT (CLMT) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on the election of directors, an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 258-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KMaterial agreementMar 178-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KMaterial agreementMar 138-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDMar 128-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 11 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Are Oils-Energy Stocks Lagging Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) This Year?zacks.com·3d agoBank of New York Mellon Corp Sells 18,251 Shares of Calumet, Inc. $CLMTdefenseworld.net·3d agoINVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Calumet, Inc. - CLMTprnewswire.com·4d agoCalumet to Attend H.C. Wainwright Conferenceprnewswire.com·4d agoWhy Calumet Stock Topped the Market Todayfool.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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