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CLCLMT

Calumet Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX mentions rising faster than the marketStrong bullish X conversation
$CLMT·$3.7B·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·Energy
$42.82-3.0%YTD+116.6%1Y+150.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-17: 9 posts2026-07-18: 4 posts2026-07-19: 1 posts2026-07-20: 14 posts2026-07-21: 8 posts2026-07-22: 11 posts2026-07-23: 10 posts58+26%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 8h ago
CLCLMT
$CLMTCalumet Inc.
$42.82-2.99%58 posts+26%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CLMT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-23

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Calumet up 123% YTD with Shell-Delta SAF five-year deal and $3.50/gal RD index — August 7 Q2 tests the MRL sum-of-parts thesis.

Calumet Inc. runs specialty petroleum products (Specialty Products & Solutions), the Montana Renewables (MRL) renewable-fuels facility, and performance brands (Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, TruFuel). Stock is at $44.14, up 123% YTD and 159% over twelve months, sitting at 99% of the 52-week range into August 7 Q2 earnings.

  • The operating profile shows specific cyclicality: Q1 revenue of $1.03B grew 4% YoY at -8.5% gross margin and -17% operating margin, with EPS of -$3.64 dramatically missing the -$0.57 consensus by 539%. The four-quarter EPS surprise cadence (-539%, 36%, 30%, -286%) shows the extreme volatility of RD-index-driven earnings.
  • The specific July catalyst set is genuinely bullish: Delta Air Lines signed a five-year SAF agreement with Shell Aviation on July 3, and Shell sources SAF from Montana Renewables — a specific volume commitment that anchors MRL's RD-index exposure. The RD index hit $3.50/gallon (a fresh multi-year high) and Group 1/2 base-oil prices are surging.
  • The specific balance-sheet action is on-thesis: on July 8 Calumet issued a redemption notice for $100M of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2028 — a specific deleveraging step that reduces interest cost and reflects improving MRL cash generation. Combined with the July 15 director-directed M-Exempt insider vesting cluster (11 directors on July 9), the setup shows aligned management engagement.
  • The sum-of-parts thesis is credible but stretched: bulls model MRL implied value at ~$3.0B (above Warburg's $2.25B create) at ~$5.8B EV, with a stretch bull case of $75+/share (even with a 40% RD-index crash) targeting $100+/share over 12 months — requires Q2 to prove MRL run-rate.

August 7 needs Q2 revenue near $1.10B, EPS materially above $0.21 consensus (Q1 -$3.64 miss reversal), MRL RD-gallon-produced disclosure, and Shell-Delta SAF contract volume timing. MRL operational data activates $55-65; a Q1-style miss or RD-index reversal extends to $32-36.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bullish sum-of-parts frame. The MRL implied value at ~$3.0B (above Warburg's $2.25B create), the Delta-Shell five-year SAF agreement with Shell sourcing from MRL, the $3.50/gallon RD index multi-year high, Group 1/2 base-oil prices surging, and the long-form modeling to $75+/share even with a 40% RD-index crash are legitimate frames. The 22-post large sample and no bear voice do not offset the specific Q1 -$3.64 EPS miss risk.

What to watch: August 7 Q2 earnings — revenue near $1.10B, EPS materially above $0.21 consensus (Q1 -$3.64 miss reversal), specific MRL RD-gallon-produced disclosure, Shell-Delta SAF contract volume timing. MRL operational data activates $55-65 (partial move to $75 case); Q1-style miss or RD-index reversal extends to $32-36.

On the calendar: 2026-08-07 — Calumet Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment28 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-23

Calumet is ripping to all-time highs as Montana Renewables becomes a linchpin for North American SAF supply — Delta, Alaska, JetBlue, and Shell all buy it, and DAL just signed a 5-year SAF agreement with Shell. The renewable-diesel index sits near $3.20-$3.50 with the SAF premium at $2.07-$2.11/gallon, and bulls model 20% levered FCF yield with $100+ upside as $25/share of net debt gets wiped alongside base-oil pricing tailwinds. The three-year IRR is around 39%, and the trade is transitioning from deep value to GARP.

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Refines specialty petroleum-derived products (solvents, waxes, lubricants) for industrial and consumer markets in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CLMT.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy

No material change from last week — California LCFS credit market softening and elevated feedstock costs continue compressing renewable fuel margins, while traditional crack spreads remain modest.

What this means for $CLMT

Neutral — Refines specialty petroleum-derived products (solvents, waxes, lubricants) for industrial and consumer markets in North America; limited read-through from oil & gas refining & marketing macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF
+46.9%YTD
+60.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-16.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-0.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-0.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
21.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
5.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 8, 2026$-3.64$-0.57-538.6%
Q4 2025Feb 27, 2026$-0.43$-0.67+35.8%
Q3 2025Nov 7, 2025$-0.21$-0.30+30.0%
Q2 2025Aug 8, 2025$-1.70$-0.44-286.4%
Next earningsFri, Aug 7·consensus EPS $0.21

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.0B+3.6%-8.5%-16.6%$-3.64$-99.4M
Q4 FY25$1.0B+9.4%-0.3%-6.1%$-0.43$103.8M
Q3 FY25$1.1B-2.0%34.7%30.0%$3.61$92.0M
Q2 FY25$1.0B-9.4%-4.2%-9.8%$-1.70$-11.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.6B$4.0B – $5.1B-$1.35-$3.11 – $0.864
FY27$4.8B$3.9B – $5.8B$1.43$0.39 – $2.514
FY28$5.3B$4.4B – $6.4B$1.14$0.88 – $1.442
FY29$5.7B$4.7B – $6.8B$2.48$1.92 – $3.133
FY30$5.9B$4.9B – $7.1B$3.57$2.76 – $4.503

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.93%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+19.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+56.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 58.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.725-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 1Daniel J SajkowskiDirector4.2K sh$153KSellMay 15Group Heritage13(d) 10% Group Member627.0K sh$20.4MSellApr 1Daniel J SajkowskiDirector3.3K sh$114K
+ 43 other (19 awards · 13 exempts · 9 inkinds · 1 gift · 1 inthemoney) in window

See when $CLMT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 5SC 13D/A
AI summary

With filed Amendment No. 1 to Schedule 13D disclosing updated beneficial ownership in CLMT (CLMT). The filing covers approximately 14,523,185 shares of CLMT. The position is held for potential M&A activity. Schedule 13D amendments are required when a 5%-or-greater holder's ownership, intent, or plans change materially, providing transparency into concentrated positions that could influence corporate governance or trigger M&A activity.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 43
AI summary

Sanders Bradford Timothy filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of CLMT securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at CLMT.

8-KShareholder voteJun 38-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CLMT (CLMT) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on the election of directors, an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 258-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KMaterial agreementMar 178-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KMaterial agreementMar 138-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDMar 128-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KMaterial agreementJan 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
+ 10 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?zacks.com·9d agoIs Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?zacks.com·11d agoMontana Renewables Collaborates with Gulfstream for Low Emissions Testingprnewswire.com·16d agoCalumet Issues Redemption Notice for $100 Million of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2028prnewswire.com·16d agoVerifying Calumet Specialty Products' New Trajectoryseekingalpha.com·17d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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