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DIDINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

$DINO·$16B·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·Energy
$89.09-1.9%YTD+93.7%1Y+94.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-17: 128 posts2026-07-18: 33 posts2026-07-19: 21 posts2026-07-20: 28 posts2026-07-21: 31 posts2026-07-22: 28 posts2026-07-23: 41 posts320
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 9h ago
DIDINO
$DINOHF Sinclair Corporation
$89.09-1.95%320 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $DINO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-24

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Refiner up 94% YTD/TTM into Monday's print — the crack-spread cycle is fully open, but the analyst EPS glide falls hard.

HF Sinclair is a mid-size US independent refiner with retail marketing (Sinclair-branded stations) and midstream assets. The stock is +94% year-to-date and TTM — a genuine cycle-turn move — and Q2 earnings hit Monday with the tape looking for confirmation.

  • Q1 fundamentals reflect the strong crack-spread environment: revenue was $7.12B up 11.8% year-on-year at a 14% gross margin (refining is thin-margin at scale) and 13% operating margin, EPS was $3.56 — that's the kind of quarter refiners produce when crack spreads and utilization both cooperate.
  • Consensus expects a compression from here: analysts model FY26 revenue at $32.1B with EPS at $10.85, but FY27 EPS drops to $8.19 and FY28 to $5.81 — the current 94% run is fully priced against 2026 economics, and the outer years assume the cycle rolls over.
  • The winning-streak framing captures the setup: 'Can HF Sinclair Keep Its Winning Streak Alive in Q2 Earnings?' is the market's question — the risk is that Q2 either sustains the earnings power (extending the run) or shows the first sign of crack-spread compression (which would take back a chunk).
  • The peer-comparison read matters: 'Marathon Petroleum vs. HF Sinclair: Picking the Better Refining Play' is the coverage angle — DINO is trading like MPC and VLO on the way up, so any Q2 disappointment will affect the whole refiner cohort.

The Jul 28 print is what turns accelerating into either sustained acceleration or breakdown — Q2 EPS above the $4.20 consensus, crack-spread commentary for Q3, and any capital-return acceleration is what pushes the multiple further. A Q2 miss or hint of Q3 crack-spread compression takes this back to $70.

Agrees with X sentimentX's constructive tone (winning streak, strong-growth framing) matches the fundamentals — a 94% run on real earnings is not narrative. The honest caveat is the analyst EPS drop from $10.85 FY26 to $5.81 FY28, which the crowd isn't emphasizing.

What to watch: Jul 28 Q2 earnings — EPS vs $4.20 consensus, crack-spread commentary for Q3, capital-return acceleration. A Q2 miss or Q3 crack-spread compression hint takes this to $70.

On the calendar: 2026-07-28 — Q2 earnings

binary event within 7dlarge ytd and ttm gainsouter year eps deceleration priced

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise, engaged in the production and commercialization of a diverse array of petroleum products. Its offerings include conventional fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, alongside its growing renewable diesel segment. The company also specializes in unique lubricants, chemicals, and various types of asphalt. With a network of refineries strategically located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, HF Sinclair primarily distributes its refined output across the Southwestern United States, the Rocky Mountain region, the Pacific Northwest, and adjacent Plains states. The corporation additionally supplies fuel to roughly 1,300 independently owned Sinclair-branded service stations and grants branding licenses for approximately 300 more. Actively involved in the expanding renewables business, HF Sinclair also manufactures base oils and other specialized lubricants. It further provides essential transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services for petroleum products and crude oil to the broader energy industry. Established in 2021, HF Sinclair Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Dallas, Texas.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $DINO.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy

No material change from last week — California LCFS credit market softening and elevated feedstock costs continue compressing renewable fuel margins, while traditional crack spreads remain modest.

Top industry ETF

$CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF
+46.9%YTD
+60.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
13.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
9.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
6.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
7.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
13.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
11.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 1, 2026$0.69$-0.06+1166.1%
Q4 2025Feb 18, 2026$1.20$0.44+172.7%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$2.44$1.94+25.8%
Q2 2025Jul 31, 2025$1.70$1.09+56.0%
Next earningsTue, Jul 28·consensus EPS $4.20

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$7.1B+11.8%14.3%12.7%$3.56$355.0M
Q4 FY25$6.5B-0.6%2.0%-0.0%$-0.15$-587.0M
Q3 FY25$7.3B+0.6%20.6%7.8%$2.15$930.0M
Q2 FY25$6.8B-13.5%5.9%4.1%$1.10$476.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$32.1B$25.3B – $38.2B$10.85$7.96 – $13.348
FY27$29.3B$22.9B – $34.7B$8.19$6.84 – $10.558
FY28$28.8B$28.4B – $29.1B$5.81$3.43 – $7.626
FY29$27.1B$20.9B – $31.8B$4.76$3.35 – $5.835
FY30$27.6B$21.3B – $32.3B$4.23$2.97 – $5.183

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.91%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+21.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+49.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 167.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.715-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 16Rhoman J HardyDirector1.5K sh$100KSellJun 2Manuel J FernandezDirector635 sh$46KSellMay 26Matthew JoyceSVP, Lubricants & Specialties2.4K sh$166KSellMay 19Vivek GargCFO717 sh$52KBuyMay 18Franklin MyersCEO15.0K sh$1.0MSellMay 15Valerie PompaEVP, Operations10.0K sh$691K
+ 8 other (6 awards · 1 gift · 1 return) in window

See when $DINO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
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Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Can HF Sinclair Keep Its Winning Streak Alive in Q2 Earnings?zacks.com·19h agoMarathon Petroleum vs. HF Sinclair: Picking the Better Refining Playzacks.com·2d agoHere's Why HF Sinclair (DINO) is a Strong Growth Stockzacks.com·2d agoHF Sinclair (DINO) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?zacks.com·3d agoAI Has Entered a Bear Marketinvestorplace.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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