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MPMPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$MPC·$114B·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·Energy
$388.90+0.3%YTD+92.0%1Y+117.3%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
MPMPC
$MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation
$388.90+0.31%236 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $MPC on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

236X posts · last 7 days
Aug 20Sep 5
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $MPC's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data34 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-06

Marathon Petroleum is one of a cluster of US refiners hitting fresh all-time highs — YTD +132%, with the Venezuela/US oil deal making Gulf Coast refiners the natural destination for Orinoco heavy sour. Diesel at record retail highs and no excess capacity in sight. Bulls dominant.

Read what X is saying about $MPC

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MPC — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-06

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Marathon Petroleum is +132% YTD hitting fresh highs on Venezuela flow to Gulf Coast — refiners are the trade of Q3.

Marathon Petroleum is the largest US independent refiner — Gulf Coast, Mid-Con, and West Coast assets — plus the MPLX midstream partnership. It just hit fresh all-time highs on the Trump-announced Venezuela deal that would send Orinoco heavy sour crude to Gulf Coast refiners.

  • The mechanics are exceptional: Q2 EPS crushed by 24% at $17.73, Q1 by 123%, and consensus FY26 EPS at $50.27 gives a 7.7x forward multiple — refiner FCF is at record levels as crack spreads tighten and Venezuela flow adds cheap heavy sour to Gulf Coast complex feedstocks.
  • The counter is the mean-reversion setup: consensus FY27 EPS drops to $35.82 and FY28 to $21.27 — analysts are already modeling the refiner supercycle rolling over, insider selling has picked up (multiple officers at $362-375 in late August/early September), and at 96% of the 52-week range the equity is priced for continued spread strength.

The stock is accelerating with the refining cohort — a Nov 3 print showing crack spreads holding and Venezuela feedstock beginning to arrive restarts the compounding; a crack-spread pullback into Q4 seasonality or a bond-yield spike is the invalidation.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bull framing — fresh all-time highs with VLO/PSX/DINO/MPC together on Venezuela deal, 132% YTD, refiner FCF at record levels — matches the confirmed tape and news; the honest counter is the FY27 consensus EPS drop and the pattern of officer selling at multi-year highs.

What to watch: The Nov 3 Q3 print — crack-spread trajectory, Venezuela feedstock flow, and any refinery-utilization commentary decide direction; a crack-spread pullback into Q4 seasonality is the earlier warning.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 earnings

parabolic runcrack spread cycleinsider selling pattern

Read the AI verdict on $MPC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Large independent US petroleum refiner with retail fuel distribution through the MPLX pipeline and marketing network.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MPC.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy

Refinery crack spreads have normalised from 2022 peaks but remain above mid-cycle; renewable-diesel mandates are a medium-term structural driver for complex refiners. Gasoline-demand ceiling and biofuel transition are mounting secular headwinds.

What this means for $MPC

Direct beneficiary — Marathon Petroleum; largest US refiner, MPLX midstream fee income, complex refinery optionality vs bio mandates.

Top industry ETF

$CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF
+47.2%YTD
+79.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
27.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
8.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$17.73$14.27+24.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$1.65$0.74+123.3%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$4.07$2.72+49.6%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$3.01$3.15-4.4%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $19.79

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$34.6B+9.7%9.6%4.1%$1.73$208.0M
Q4 FY25$32.6B-1.7%8.9%5.7%$5.13$1.9B
Q3 FY25$34.8B-0.8%8.0%4.8%$4.51$1.7B
Q2 FY25$33.8B-10.9%8.8%5.6%$3.96$1.9B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$169.9B$147.7B – $181.6B$50.27$34.59 – $59.858
FY27$155.5B$106.5B – $189.2B$35.82$27.59 – $44.918
FY28$153.3B$126.3B – $206.6B$21.27$15.66 – $26.587
FY29$162.3B$122.9B – $201.8B$23.58$16.13 – $31.043
FY30$170.7B$129.2B – $212.3B$40.10$27.44 – $52.795

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.96%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+20.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+60.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 291.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.535-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 31Shawn M LyonSVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC1.0K sh$376KSellAug 28Shawn M LyonSVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC425 sh$157KSellAug 27Erin M BrzezinskiVP and Controller570 sh$207KSellAug 17Molly R BensonChief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec5.0K sh$1.8MSellAug 13Shawn M LyonSVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC2.5K sh$875KSellAug 12Michael A HenschenEx VP, Refining6.0K sh$2.1MSellJun 4Michael A HenschenEx VP, Refining6.3K sh$1.7MSellMay 13Ricky D. HesslingChief Commercial Officer1.0K sh$250KSellMar 13Ricky D. HesslingChief Commercial Officer1.6K sh$371KSellMar 12Ricky D. HesslingChief Commercial Officer1.0K sh$238K
1–10 of 11
+ 14 other (10 awards · 2 exempts · 1 inkind · 1 gift) in window

See when $MPC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMay 6S-3ASR
8-KShareholder voteMay 18-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KAgreement terminatedApr 138-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 1.02: Agreement terminated · Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
+ 12 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

3 Refining Stocks Up More Than 100% YTD With Further Upside Potentialzacks.com·3d agoIs Marathon Petroleum Stock Still a Buy After More Than Doubling YTD?zacks.com·3d agoWhy Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Up 30% Since Last Earnings Report?zacks.com·4d agoLasting Energy Chokeholds Present Buy Opportunities Across Sectoryoutube.com·5d agoGot $10,000 to Invest This September? These Energy Stocks Could Turn It Into Over $600 in Annual Income.fool.com·6d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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