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VLVLO

Valero Energy Corporation

$VLO·$117B·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·Energy
$432.06-2.6%YTD+130.2%1Y+173.2%
Price updated 4m ago·X counts updated 5d ago
VLVLO
$VLOValero Energy Corporation
$432.06-2.65%270 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $VLO on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

270X posts · last 7 days
Sep 21Oct 4
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $VLO's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data13 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-15

Valero prints new all-time highs alongside the refiner cohort, with UBS lifting the PT to $450 and consensus 2026 EPS estimates racing higher. Posters position VLO as a leader in the energy-outperforming-AI narrative, with 3-2-1 crack spreads near triple long-run averages.

Read what X is saying about $VLO

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $VLO — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Valero is at a new all-time high on fat crack spreads — the refining up-cycle is doing exactly what refining up-cycles do.

Valero Energy is the US refining pure-play — large-scale, Gulf-Coast-heavy, with the highest per-barrel margin leverage in the group. Crack spreads near triple their long-run averages have taken the stock to new highs.

  • The business is capturing the cycle: Q1 revenue +7% YoY at a 4.6% operating margin — refining margins are gross-margin-dominant, so modest revenue growth with cycle-high crack spreads translates to meaningful EPS leverage.
  • The sell-side is confirming: UBS raised PT to $450 and consensus 2026 EPS estimates are being revised higher as 3-2-1 crack spreads hold near 3x long-run averages — this is a classic cycle re-rate story.
  • 52-week range position is 96% with vol multiplier 0.78 — accelerating on normal volume means the move is being absorbed by committed holders, not sold into, which supports continuation.

Oct 22 Q3 is the gate — a strong crack-spread quarter plus any commentary that spreads are holding into Q4 extends the move. A sudden crack-spread compression or a refinery-utilization setback and the stock gives back some of the +130% YTD gain.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right drivers — the ATH print, UBS PT raise, EPS revisions, 3-2-1 crack spread arithmetic — and the energy-outperforming-AI framing is factually consistent with 2026 YTD leadership.

What to watch: Oct 22 Q3 — refining margin per barrel, utilization rates, operating cash flow, and 2027 crack-spread commentary. A spread compression or utilization setback is the invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-10-22 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $VLO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Largest U.S. independent petroleum refiner; also operates renewable diesel through the Diamond Green Diesel JV and corn ethanol plants.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VLO.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy

No material change from last week — Crude above $100/bbl tightening refined product markets and sustaining refinery crack spreads above mid-cycle.

What this means for $VLO

Neutral — Largest U.S. independent petroleum refiner; also operates renewable diesel through the Diamond Green Diesel JV and corn ethanol plants.

Top industry ETF

$CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF
+77.6%YTD
+83.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
9.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
7.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
17.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
7.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$12.54$10.11+24.0%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$4.22$3.16+33.5%
Q4 2025Jan 29, 2026$3.82$3.27+16.8%
Q3 2025Oct 23, 2025$3.66$3.05+20.0%
Next earningsThu, Oct 22·consensus EPS $20.28

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$32.4B+7.0%8.9%5.3%$4.22$1.2B
Q4 FY25$31.7B+3.2%10.3%5.0%$3.74$1.8B
Q3 FY25$32.2B-2.2%5.5%4.7%$3.54$1.7B
Q2 FY25$29.9B-13.3%4.1%3.3%$2.28$1.2B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$148.8B$141.3B – $152.4B$43.11$31.11 – $50.3410
FY27$128.7B$114.8B – $162.7B$31.21$24.25 – $41.5910
FY28$114.0B$90.6B – $137.6B$21.99$10.93 – $31.268
FY29$150.6B$126.9B – $182.2B$18.29$14.56 – $23.296
FY30$158.5B$133.6B – $191.8B$11.38$9.06 – $14.496

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.99%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+21.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+67.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 286.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.595-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 29Eric A FisherSVP7.5K sh$2.0MSellJun 18Eric A FisherSVP7.5K sh$1.8MSellMay 18Eric A FisherSVP7.5K sh$1.9M
+ 28 other (10 awards · 9 exempts · 7 returns · 2 gifts) in window

See when $VLO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsOct 63/A
3New insider — initial holdingsSep 183
AI summary

Matthew Audette, newly elected director at Valero Energy (VLO), filed an initial Form 3 on September 18, 2026 reporting no beneficial ownership of Valero securities at the time of his board election. This accompanies the 8-K disclosing his appointment to the board and Audit Committee. Administrative — no economic significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 188-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Valero Energy (VLO) expanded its board to 11 members and elected Matthew Audette as a new independent director and Audit Committee member on September 17, 2026, with an initial term through the 2027 Annual Meeting. Audette received a pro-rata equity grant of 372 stock units (vesting on first anniversary) and $101,667 in pro-rated annual cash retainer. Routine board governance addition for a major energy company — the Audit Committee seat is the notable assignment.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 168-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Valero Energy Corporation's board authorized a new .0 billion stock repurchase program on July 16, 2026, with no expiration date, in addition to .4 billion remaining under its February 2026 .5B program — bringing total authorized buyback capacity to approximately .4 billion. This is a major capital return signal for a refining company navigating volatile crack spread margins, underscoring management's confidence in balance sheet strength and free cash flow generation.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 8 other (2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 11-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Is it Worth Paying a Premium Price for Valero Energy Now?zacks.com·1d agoValero Energy Corporation (VLO) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Knowzacks.com·1d agoThese 2 Oils and Energy Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radarzacks.com·1d agoBest Growth Stocks to Buy for October 8thzacks.com·2d agoValero's Exceptional, Unwarranted Profitability Comes To An Endseekingalpha.com·2d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $VLO on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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