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VVVVV

Valvoline Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 25% YoY at strong marginsRecent insider buyingConsistent chatter on X (1.2K/wk), no spike
$VVV·$4.9B·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·Energy
$32.06-0.2%YTD+35.1%1Y-16.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 148 posts2026-08-22: 161 posts1,162+16%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
VVVVV
$VVVValvoline Inc.
$32.06-0.16%1.2k posts+16%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $VVV, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Quick-lube retailer executing quietly on same-store growth while its ticker gets swamped by chatter about a crypto AI token entirely unrelated to the business.

Valvoline is now a pure-play quick-lube retailer after divesting its lubricants business — over 2,000 owned and franchised Valvoline Instant Oil Change locations focused on same-store growth and modest store additions. The stock is up 35% YTD as the standalone retail thesis lands cleanly with institutions, even as X chatter for the $VVV ticker is entirely about an unrelated crypto asset.

  • Revenue growth is strong for a mature retailer: Q2 was $504M, up 25% YoY, with an 18% operating margin — that's above the low-teens historical run rate and validates the operational leverage the post-divestiture thesis leaned on.
  • Earnings beats are consistent and improving: last three quarters at 14%, 17%, 9% surprises — the guide is being sandbagged and the print is beating, which is the signal institutional retail-quality buyers look for.
  • The August $600M senior-notes offering (6.125% due 2034, upsized from $500M) took out Term Loan A entirely and paid down Term Loan B — that's a refi that lengthens maturities and locks in fixed rates before any potential Fed move, not new dilutive leverage.
  • Institutional flow is accelerating: BlackRock added a large position (12.7M shares) and Deutsche Bank took a new position — that scale of new institutional buying tends to sustain multiple expansion in mid-cap retail names like this.

The setup works as long as same-store sales stay in mid-single-digit and the store-add pace continues — the November 18 print is when the FY26 guide clarifies. What invalidates: a same-store slowdown driven by consumer softness, or an unexpected labor-cost pressure that compresses the 18% operating margin.

What to watch: November 18 Q4 earnings and FY26 guide — need same-store sales holding in mid-single-digit and store-add pace continuing. A same-store slowdown or labor-cost pressure compressing operating margin invalidates the coiling-releases-higher setup.

On the calendar: 2026-11-18 — Q4 earnings

ticker confusion cryptopost spinoff pure playinstitutional accumulationdebt refi completed

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment81 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

The VVV crowd is loud and long on Venice AI as the inference-token thesis reprices, pointing to record days above $250K in signup and credit revenue, an emissions cut to 2.5M by September 1 that pulls the token toward deflation, and an Ansem endorsement calling it a breakout consumer-AI play. Posters compare the setup to HYPE pre-$75 and float $30+ targets, while whale flows into related plays get treated as validation. A small critical thread flags the image suite as "basically unusable," but that is the only real pushback in the sample.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $VVV

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates Valvoline Instant Oil Change quick-lube service centers; pivoted to pure service-center business after selling the lubricants products unit.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VVV.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy

Crack spreads — the refinery margin between crude input and refined product prices — are the core driver; summer gasoline demand provides near-term support. RIN credit costs and renewable diesel competition are the structural headwinds pressuring conventional margins.

What this means for $VVV

Partial — consumer discretionary / retail performance tracks consumer spending trends; Valvoline Inc.

Top industry ETF

$CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF
+47.2%YTD
+73.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
48.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
17.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
28.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
38.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
5.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$0.57$0.50+13.5%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.41$0.35+17.1%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$0.37$0.34+8.8%
Q3 2025Nov 19, 2025$0.45$0.47-3.8%
Next earningsWed, Nov 18·consensus EPS $0.42

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$503.8M+25.0%37.1%17.5%$0.29$37.6M
Q1 FY26$461.8M+11.5%37.4%14.2%$-0.26$7.4M
Q4 FY25$453.8M+4.2%39.1%18.6%$0.20$23.0M
Q3 FY25$439.0M+4.2%40.5%21.6%$0.44$32.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.1B$2.0B – $2.1B$1.75$1.71 – $1.8010
FY27$2.3B$2.2B – $2.4B$2.06$1.83 – $2.1710
FY28$2.5B$2.5B – $2.5B$2.49$2.40 – $2.565
FY29$2.7B$2.6B – $2.7B$2.75$2.66 – $2.842
FY30$2.9B$2.8B – $3.0B$3.10$2.99 – $3.202

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.28%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-13.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-6.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 127.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.025-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 21O'daniel Julie MarieChief Legal Officer3.7K sh$125KBuyAug 12Jordan M. DennyChief Accounting Officer1.5K sh$50KSellJun 25Jonathan L. CaldwellChief People Officer2.9K sh$114KBuyMay 15Slater Jennifer LynnDirector1.0K sh$33KBuyMay 14Freeland Richard JosephDirector3.1K sh$100KBuyMay 14Willis J KevinCFO10.0K sh$318K
+ 18 other (14 awards · 2 exempts · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $VVV insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Valvoline closed a $600 million offering of 6.125% Senior Notes due 2034 on August 24, 2026, with proceeds designated to repay in full its senior secured term loan A facility and partially repay its term loan B facility. The notes are unsubordinated unsecured obligations guaranteed by subsidiaries that also guarantee Valvoline's existing senior secured facilities and 3.625% notes due 2031. Material refinancing that extends Valvoline's debt maturity profile and shifts the capital structure from secured term loans to unsecured notes.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 58-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

VVV (VVV) reported Q2 2026 financial results on 2026-08-05, reporting results detailed in attached press release. The press release notes: mission as to the materiality of any information in this For. Additional items: Item 7.01. Quarterly earnings are a material disclosure; investors should review the full press release for segment details and management commentary.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 243
AI summary

Scott Mezvinsky filed a Form 3 with the SEC on July 24, 2026 disclosing his status as a newly appointed director of Valvoline Inc. (ticker: VVV). Table I of the Form 3 shows no non-derivative securities beneficially owned, and Table II shows no derivative securities, indicating he received no shares or equity grants as of the filing date. This is a routine initial ownership statement required of all new Section 16 reporting persons within 10 days of appointment to the board of a public company. Valvoline is a Louisville, Kentucky-based quick-lube and preventive-maintenance service franchise.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 243
AI summary

Katherine Fogertey filed a Form 3 with the SEC on July 24, 2026 disclosing her status as a newly appointed director of Valvoline Inc. (ticker: VVV). Table I of the Form 3 shows no non-derivative securities beneficially owned, and Table II shows no derivative securities, indicating she received no shares or equity grants as of the filing date. This is a routine initial ownership statement required of all new Section 16 reporting persons within 10 days of appointment to the board of a public company.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

VVV filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 announcing the appointment of to the as members of the Board on such date. Additionally, Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The filing also covers Item(s) 9.01. Personnel changes at the executive or board level are typically administrative but can signal strategic shifts depending on context.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Valvoline Inc. (VVV) entered into Amendment No. 1 to its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement on June 30, 2026, modifying a revolving credit facility originally established December 1, 2025; the amendment also created or modified a direct financial obligation per Item 2.03. Specific capacity, rate, or covenant changes are not detailed in the excerpt. This is routine credit facility maintenance for the vehicle service company and is unlikely to carry material operational significance.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 78-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Valvoline Inc. (VVV) reported quarterly financial results via an 8-K under Items 2.02 and 7.01. The automotive services company disclosed revenue, same-store sales growth, and profitability for its quick-lube service center network. The Regulation FD disclosure ensures related investor communications are simultaneously publicly available. A full earnings press release is attached as an exhibit.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 163
+ 10 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 1 routine 8-K · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Deutsche Bank AG Buys New Position in Valvoline $VVVdefenseworld.net·7d agoBlackRock Inc. Acquires Shares of 12,692,233 Valvoline $VVVdefenseworld.net·7d agoValvoline Announces Pricing and Upsizing of Senior Notes Offeringbusinesswire.com·18d agoValvoline Announces Commencement of Senior Notes Offeringbusinesswire.com·19d agoValvoline Q3 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·23d ago

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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