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KMKMX

CarMax, Inc.

$KMX·$8.1B·Auto - Dealerships·Consumer Cyclical
$57.94-0.8%YTD+51.4%1Y+6.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-25: 1 posts2026-07-26: 1 posts2026-07-27: 2 posts2026-07-28: 8 posts2026-07-29: 22 posts2026-07-30: 12 posts2026-07-31: 9 posts55
Price updated 11m ago·X counts updated 4d ago
KMKMX
$KMXCarMax, Inc.
$57.94-0.83%55 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $KMX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-04

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

CarMax up 50% YTD while Carvana is down 30%, LL-HL Structure 1st Pivot — but off-lease supply concerns are the specific bear counter.

CarMax is the specific used-vehicle retailer whose specific setup contrasts with Carvana's underperformance — combining constructive technicals with a specific used-auto-supply-pressure bear concern.

Where the setup lands:

  • The 50% YTD gain (vs Carvana -30%) is the specific relative-strength signal: CarMax's outperformance versus the primary used-auto peer captures the specific market preference for the incumbent retailer with a physical footprint.
  • The LL-HL Structure 1st Pivot on watchlists is the specific technical setup: chart-based traders identifying a specific pivot structure supports the constructive framework.
  • The Early Morning Movers bullish scan inclusion (alongside SE) captures the specific institutional-flow context: quantitative screens identifying KMX supports the tape.
  • The Q1 print was a substantial beat: EPS of $1.31 vs $0.97 estimated is a 35.8% beat — real operational execution supporting the specific outperformance.
  • The Momentum-Stock framing from sell-side captures the specific bull-thesis reinforcement.
  • The off-lease supply pressure concern is the specific structural bear counter: lots of vehicles coming off lease in the next year plus used-auto listings going parabolic imply prices need to collapse — a specific mid-term risk for used-vehicle retailers broadly.
  • The CBRL-and-KMX-being-the-best-breakouts joke captures the honest sentiment context — sometimes when unusual names lead, it signals limited bullish leadership elsewhere.

The forward setup: the September 29 fiscal Q2 print. Revenue growth plus continued gross-margin-per-unit stability plus any specific commentary on used-vehicle inventory management is what breaks the coil higher; a Q2 EPS miss combined with any specific commentary on off-lease supply pressure impacts on pricing is what would confirm the coiling extending.

What to watch: The September 29 fiscal Q2 print — revenue growth, gross-margin-per-unit stability, and used-vehicle inventory management commentary. All positive breaks the coil higher; Q2 miss with off-lease supply pressure impacts confirms coiling extending.

On the calendar: 2026-09-29 — fiscal Q2 earnings

outperforming carvanaoff lease supply pressure

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-12

Posts describe CarMax popping in the Early Morning Movers bullish scan alongside SE, and forming an LL-HL Structure 1st Pivot on watchlists. One contributor jokes CBRL and KMX being the best-looking breakouts of the day is worrying. Bears flag lots of vehicles coming off lease in the next year adding used-auto supply pressure, and used-auto listings going parabolic implying prices need to collapse.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $KMX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Largest US used-car retailer with in-house auto financing and a digital-first buying experience.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Dealerships sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $KMX.

Auto - Dealerships · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Carvana's proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and financing infrastructure creates cost efficiency that legacy dealers cannot match at scale.

What this means for $KMX

Partial — Largest US used-car retailer with in-house auto financing and a digital-first buying experience; partial earnings exposure to auto - dealerships demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Industry benchmark

6-name peer basket
-43.2%YTD
-45.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
34.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-0.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-1.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
13.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
3.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
10.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 17, 2026$1.31$0.96+35.8%
Q1 2026Apr 14, 2026$0.34$0.23+48.9%
Q3 2025Dec 18, 2025$0.51$0.31+66.4%
Q2 2025Sep 25, 2025$0.64$1.04-38.5%
Next earningsTue, Sep 29·consensus EPS $0.68

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY27$8.0B+6.2%10.7%1.9%$1.31$-85.7M
Q4 FY26$5.9B-1.0%10.2%-4.2%$-0.77$-687.3M
Q3 FY26$5.8B-6.9%10.2%-2.3%$0.43$1.1B
Q2 FY26$6.6B-6.0%10.9%-1.8%$0.64$654.0M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 14 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$25.7B$25.2B – $26.0B$2.69$2.62 – $2.7812
FY27$27.2B$26.2B – $27.9B$2.71$2.53 – $2.8314
FY28$27.7B$26.7B – $29.2B$3.11$2.73 – $3.4413
FY29$28.7B$27.6B – $30.5B$3.00$1.96 – $4.266

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.87%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+13.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+33.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 131.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.165-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 25Sona ChawlaDirector2.0K sh$107KBuyJun 25Marcella ShinderDirector574 sh$30KBuyJun 24Mark F OneilDirector9.6K sh$503KBuyJun 22Peter J BensenDirector2.5K sh$131KBuyJun 22Keith BarrCEO9.4K sh$498K
+ 33 other (19 awards · 9 inkinds · 5 exempts) in window

See when $KMX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 318-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

CarMax Inc. (KMX) disclosed the departure of Ms. Cafritz (likely CFO or senior executive) with a modified severance package: the standard formula of 1.5× (salary + target bonus) was amended to remove the target bonus component, replaced with her actual FY2027 annual bonus at year-end. Additionally, Cafritz entered a 6-month consulting agreement at half her current base salary, during which non-solicitation and non-competition covenants are extended by an additional six months (total 2.5 years from departure). The modification substituting actual for target bonus in the severance formula reduces the company's guaranteed payout.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 243
AI summary

Robert O'Shaughnessy filed a Form 3 as a newly appointed Director of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) on June 24, 2026, triggered by his election at the 2026 Annual Meeting on June 23, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned. Administrative disclosure with no share holdings reported.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 243
AI summary

James Francis Kessler filed a Form 3 as a newly appointed Director of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) on June 24, 2026, triggered by an event on June 23, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned — both the non-derivative and derivative tables are blank. Administrative filing accompanying CarMax's 2026 Annual Meeting director elections; no share holdings to note.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 243
AI summary

William C. Cobb filed a Form 3 as a newly elected Director of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) on June 24, 2026, triggered by his election on June 23, 2026. Cobb beneficially owns 300 shares of CarMax common stock indirectly through the William & Carole Cobb 2000 Family Trust. Routine director ownership disclosure; negligible holding relative to CarMax's outstanding share count.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 248-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 23, 2026 with all nine director nominees re-elected with strong support (109–115 million votes for out of ~115 million cast; Thomas Folliard received the lowest support at ~95%). Shareholders also approved an amended 2002 Stock Incentive Plan, adding 1,842,000 shares reserved for issuance, extending the plan termination date to June 23, 2036, adding minimum vesting requirements, and prohibiting dividends on unvested awards. The share increase is modestly dilutive but is a standard compensation-plan renewal.

8-KMaterial debt obligationJun 178-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

CarMax (KMX) reported Q1 FY2026 financial results via press release on June 17, 2026 (Item 2.02). Concurrently, the company executed a $500 million term loan with MUFG as sole lender and administrative agent, maturing June 15, 2029, guaranteed by CarMax and its subsidiaries (Item 2.03). Proceeds were used to repay outstanding amounts under the company's revolving credit facility. This adds fixed-rate term debt to the balance sheet in exchange for revolving capacity.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

CarMax (KMX) filed an 8-K on June 8, 2026 disclosing two board and leadership changes. Jill Livesay (VP Controller and Principal Accounting Officer) will retire July 31, 2026; CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora will serve as interim PAO. Robert O'Shaughnessy (age 60, former EVP at PulteGroup, retired March 2026) has been appointed to the board pending shareholder approval at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Directors Shira Goodman and Mitchell Steenrod are not standing for re-election.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

CarMax (KMX) disclosed on May 12, 2026 that it intends to nominate Robert O'Shaughnessy (age 60, retired EVP at PulteGroup as of March 2026) to its board of directors at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Incumbent directors Shira Goodman and Mitchell Steenrod are not standing for re-election. This is a pre-meeting director change disclosure preceding the formal election.

+ 19 other (5 13Gs · 4 proxys · 3 8-Ks · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Carvana Is Down 30% in 2026 While CarMax Is Up 50%. Should Investors Sell One and Buy the Other?247wallst.com·5d agoHere's Why CarMax (KMX) is a Strong Momentum Stockzacks.com·5d agoCARMAX, INC. (NYSE: KMX) SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION ALERT: Bernstein Liebhard Investigates Potential Breaches of Fiduciary Dutyglobenewswire.com·6d agoThis CarMax Analyst Is No Longer Bearish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Wednesdaybenzinga.com·6d agoHere Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Bloom Energy, Caesars Entertainment, CarMax, Caterpillar, Ford, MPLX LP, Noble, Reddit, Texas Instruments, and More247wallst.com·6d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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