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CVCVNA

Carvana Co.

$CVNA·$72B·Auto - Dealerships·Consumer Cyclical
$70.64+0.1%YTD-16.2%1Y+0.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 99 posts2026-07-10: 80 posts2026-07-11: 19 posts2026-07-12: 41 posts2026-07-13: 102 posts2026-07-14: 97 posts2026-07-15: 102 posts544+2%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
CVCVNA
$CVNACarvana Co.
$70.64+0.07%544 posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CVNA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Q1 revenue +52% but H&S versus compression-breakout coin-flip into July 29 earnings.

Carvana is the online used-car retailer whose 2026 tape has been -16% YTD despite continued top-line acceleration. The setup is coiled at 38% of the 52-week range with earnings on July 29 and a specific technical either-way pattern.

  • The core business is genuinely accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue grew 52% YoY to $6.4B, gross margin held at 20%, and operating margin was 9% — the used-car retail-mix is genuinely working, though the specific balance-sheet profile still reflects historic stress.
  • The specific technical setup is decisive: bulls flag CVNA at an inflection with either a compression breakout or a classic H&S top playing out, HTZ comparison (EV vehicles the only reason revenues were low, rest was profitable) is a bullish read-through, and community models hedge-fund $3.7B index-change P&L (56% of profits) on CVNA name-swap events.
  • Insider action is genuinely heavy: 12 insider events in the quarter, and bears see H&S top creating an all-time-high breakdown risk — real specific technical damage that could materialize either direction.

The July 29 Q2 earnings are the near-term arbiter — Q2 revenue growth (need continued 30%+), gross margin durability at 20%+, and any specific FY26 EPS guide movement extend the coiling setup toward $85. A revenue miss or gross-margin compression confirms the H&S-top bear framing and drops the tape below $60.

What to watch: The July 29 Q2 earnings. Watch Q2 revenue growth (need continued 30%+), gross margin durability at 20%+, and FY26 EPS guide movement. Revenue miss or gross-margin compression confirms H&S-top framing sub-$60; steady 30%+ growth + compression-breakout extends toward $85.

On the calendar: 2026-07-29 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠9 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15 · top-engagement diverged

Carvana chatter is mixed. Bulls flag CVNA at an inflection with either a compression breakout or a classic H&S top playing out. HTZ comparison - EV vehicles the only reason revenues were low, rest was profitable, same issue CVNA had - a bullish read-through. Community models hedge-fund $3.7B index-change P&L (56% of profits) on CVNA name-swap events. Bears see H&S top creating an all-time-high breakout failure with high potential to trigger a nice correction short. Concerns about 7 and 8-year car loans and 'junk debt in pensions.' Genuinely two-sided.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CVNA

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Online used-car marketplace with proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and financing infrastructure targeting a fragmented $1T US auto market.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Dealerships sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CVNA.

Auto - Dealerships · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Carvana's proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and financing infrastructure creates cost efficiency that legacy dealers cannot match at scale.

What this means for $CVNA

Partial — Online used-car marketplace with proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and financing infrastructure targeting a fragmented $1T US auto market; this segment overlaps with the used car market and Carvana reconditioning model recovery but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Industry benchmark

5-name peer basket
-41.5%YTD
-61.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
29.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-39.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
9.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
57.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
20.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$0.34$0.32+7.4%
Q4 2025Feb 18, 2026$0.84$0.23+265.2%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.21$0.27-22.2%
Q2 2025Jul 30, 2025$0.26$0.23+11.4%
Next earningsWed, Jul 29·consensus EPS $0.42

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.4B+52.0%19.8%9.0%$0.35$56.0M
Q4 FY25$5.6B+58.0%18.8%7.6%$1.90$379.0M
Q3 FY25$5.6B+54.5%20.3%9.8%$0.22$307.0M
Q2 FY25$4.8B+41.9%21.2%10.6%$0.27$-2.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 17 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$27.8B$27.1B – $28.4B$1.54$1.29 – $1.7616
FY27$35.0B$28.9B – $37.6B$2.08$1.47 – $2.5217
FY28$42.5B$42.4B – $42.5B$2.86$2.53 – $3.8010
FY29$49.1B$43.8B – $52.3B$2.66$2.28 – $2.895
FY30$56.1B$50.0B – $59.8B$2.92$2.51 – $3.175

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.38%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+2.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-3.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.0B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.465-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 1Mark W. JenkinsCFO63.8K sh$4.4MSellJul 1Stephen R PalmerPresident5.0K sh$343KSellJul 1Benjamin E. HustonCOO50.0K sh$3.4MSellJun 15Ira J. PlattDirector15.0K sh$1.0MSellJun 10Quayle J DanforthDirector14.5K sh$1.0MSellJun 8Thomas TairaPresident5.6K sh$376KSellJun 1Mark W. JenkinsCFO63.8K sh$4.5MSellJun 1Stephen R PalmerPresident5.0K sh$352KSellJun 1Benjamin E. HustonCOO50.0K sh$3.5MSellMay 8Thomas TairaPresident5.6K sh$447K
1–10 of 14
+ 43 other (30 inkinds · 7 exempts · 6 awards) in window

See when $CVNA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CVNA disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-06). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 1SC 13D/A
AI summary

Ernest C. Garcia II filed an amended Schedule 13D on CVNA disclosing beneficial ownership (42,442,317.00 shares) as of 2026-05-01. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 16 other (6 13Gs · 3 proxys · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8 POS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Ecommerce earnings could provide catalyst for sector gains, Jefferies saysproactiveinvestors.com·3d agoZacks Industry Outlook Wayfair and Carvanazacks.com·3d agoWayfair, Carvana Gain Share in Difficult eCommerce Industryzacks.com·3d agoPrediction: Carvana's New-Car Business Will Work. Early Numbers Are Stunning.fool.com·6d agoCVNA Stock Down 20% YTD: Is This a Buy the Dip Opportunity?zacks.com·7d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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