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CHCHA

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

$CHA·$1.9B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$11.63+7.7%YTD-7.6%1Y-37.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 5 posts2026-08-22: 5 posts2026-08-23: 5 posts2026-08-24: 6 posts24+63%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
CHCHA
$CHAChagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.63+7.69%24 posts+63%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CHA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-21

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Chagee premium-tea chain into an Aug 28 print — down 52% in a year and cheap on the recovery arithmetic.

Chagee Holdings operates the CHAGEE brand of premium tea shops in China and increasingly overseas — a beverage-retail category with a mix of company-owned and licensed stores. The equity was heavily de-rated in late-2025 on Chinese consumer-spending concerns; the recent print showed the first store-productivity recovery in over a year.

  • Q1 2026 revenue grew 4.5% year-on-year to RMB 3.55B and Q4 was -11% — the growth has just turned positive again after multiple negative quarters, with 50M active members across 7,531 teahouses (Greater China + overseas).
  • Q1 EPS came in at $0.38 vs $0.27 consensus (39% beat) — the fourth beat in five quarters, though the quarter-to-quarter volatility (Q4 was -74%) reflects seasonal and consumer-behavior noise.
  • Trades at ~16x trailing earnings — genuinely modest for a growing consumer-brand with a real overseas expansion opportunity.
  • Sits at the 11th percentile of the 52-week range and 8.6% below the 200-day trend — the tape is compressed, and the +25% recent move (on the ~10% buyback and Q1 print) has been the specific incremental catalyst.

The Aug 28 Q2 print is the immediate arbiter — consensus is $0.31 EPS. A print confirming continued GMV-per-store improvement plus overseas expansion could produce a meaningful re-rate from these levels. What invalidates the setup is any specific Chinese consumer-spending weakness callout on the call, or a specific overseas expansion cost overrun.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on Q1 (net revenue RMB 3.55B, 50M members, 7,531 teahouses, GMV-per-store recovery, overseas GMV +2.9%, +25% move on the ~10% buyback) matches the specifics. The 'still screams cheap' framing is fair at 16x TTM with continued growth.

What to watch: Aug 28 Q2 earnings — consensus $0.31 EPS. GMV-per-store recovery, overseas expansion progress, and buyback pace commentary.

On the calendar: 2026-08-28 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Sentiment splits sharply around Chagee's Q2. Value bulls anchor on a bottom-is-in read, buybacks at $11.47 average, RMB 6.8B of cash and a call-out that August SSS turned positive, framing FY27 as a re-rate setup. Skeptics highlight franchise revenue down 18.1%, same-store GMV still down 16.1%, active members slipping to 47.1M and a capital-heavy pivot to company-owned stores as reasons the operational story is deteriorating. The Jumia comp goes both ways.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CHA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Fast-casual teahouse chain under the CHAGEE brand expanding via franchises in China and internationally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CHA.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

Consumer restaurant spending is softening at the low end (fast food) as value perception erodes; premium casual is holding up better. Labor cost inflation and menu price moderation are the twin margin pressures for the category.

What this means for $CHA

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; Chagee Holdings Limited, operating through its various subor.

Industry benchmark

21-name peer basket
+22.8%YTD
+9.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
15.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
44.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 28, 2026$0.37$0.31+19.4%
Q1 2026May 29, 2026$0.38$0.27+39.4%
Q4 2025Mar 31, 2026$0.07$0.27-74.4%
Q3 2025Nov 28, 2025$0.29$0.36-19.2%
Next earningsFri, Nov 27·consensus EPS $0.32

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.5B+4.5%41.6%15.4%$2.36—
Q4 FY25$3.0B-10.8%40.5%-1.2%$0.15$0
Q3 FY25$3.2B-9.4%45.4%14.2%$2.07$456.5M
Q2 FY25$3.3B+10.2%48.3%3.2%$0.34$611.1M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.1B$13.3B – $14.7B$8.87$8.23 – $9.306
FY27$15.7B$14.8B – $15.7B$9.80$9.08 – $10.266
FY28$16.8B$15.9B – $17.5B$10.57$9.80 – $11.072

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.12%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-7.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 22.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.655-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 6 other (5 awards · 1 exempt) in window

See when $CHA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
+ 8 other (3 6-Ks · 2 3s · 1 13G · 1 F-3ASR) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·3d agoChagee Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·4d agoChagee Announces Second Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com·4d agoChagee to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 28, 2026globenewswire.com·11d agoCHAGEE Announces Summer Menu Featuring Matcha Debut and Citrus Teafreshersglobenewswire.com·71d ago

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Voices on X · top 7 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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