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CHCHA

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

$CHA·$2.1B·Restaurants·Consumer Cyclical
$12.44+1.2%YTD+4.3%1Y-24.4%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 4d ago
CHCHA
$CHAChagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$12.44+1.22%11 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $CHA on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

11X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-07

Chagee got a Macquarie upgrade from Neutral to Outperform with PT lifted to $15.70 from $10.20. Q2 GAAP EPS +636% and sales +9% overshadow soft Greater China GMV, Aug SSS improving to positive, and $150M buyback tokening out short-term-trader supply. FUD-index name up 7% on 3-4x volume post-print.

Read what X is saying about $CHA

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $CHA — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Chinese premium-tea chain with Q1 revenue +4.5% YoY, 15% operating margin and a Macquarie upgrade to Outperform with $15.70 PT.

Chagee Holdings operates CHAGEE premium-tea teahouse establishments across China and licensed markets, so revenue scales with store growth, same-store sales and category mix.

  • Q1 FY26 revenue RMB 3.55B, +4.5% YoY with 15.4% operating margin; prior four quarters: +10.2%, -9.4%, -10.8%, +4.5% — Q1 marks the growth-return inflection
  • Q4 FY25 revenue RMB 2.97B, -10.8% at -1.2% operating margin; Q3 FY25 RMB 3.21B, -9.4% at 14.2% — operating margin volatile
  • TTM: 16x earnings, 1.1x sales, 12% ROE, 44% gross margin, 8.2% operating margin, FCF yield 9.6%, debt-to-equity 0.17
  • 2026 estimates: RMB 14.14B revenue, RMB 9.11 EPS; 2027 RMB 15.93B, RMB 10.08 EPS — modeling continued HSD-LDD revenue growth
  • YTD -6.6%, trailing-12m -31% at $11.14 against a $2.18B market cap
  • Macquarie upgraded Neutral to Outperform with PT raised $10.20 to $15.70 (~28% upside); Q2 GAAP EPS +636% YoY, sales +9%, August SSS positive; $150M buyback announced

The operating line turned the corner in Q1 (revenue back to +4.5% YoY after Q4 -10.8%) and Q2 appears to have extended the acceleration with GAAP EPS +636% YoY per the sell-side framing. The Macquarie upgrade and buyback add structural support.

Agrees with X sentimentX cites the Macquarie upgrade from Neutral to Outperform with PT lifted $10.20 to $15.70, Q2 GAAP EPS +636%, sales +9%, August SSS positive, $150M buyback and FUD-index framing with a 7% post-print pop on 3-4x volume. The attention aligns with the Q1 operating inflection and the Q2 upside.

What to watch: Nov 27 Q3 earnings and SSS trajectory — whether same-store sales acceleration sustains above the Q2 inflection or decelerates on the broader China-consumer softness.

On the calendar: 2026-11-27 Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $CHA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Fast-casual teahouse chain under the CHAGEE brand expanding via franchises in China and internationally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Restaurants sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CHA.

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Value-trade-down sustains QSR at casual dining's expense.

What this means for $CHA

Partial — Fast-casual teahouse chain under the CHAGEE brand expanding via franchises in China and internationally.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
+6.5%YTD
-3.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
15.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
44.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 28, 2026$0.37$0.31+19.4%
Q1 2026May 29, 2026$0.38$0.27+39.4%
Q4 2025Mar 31, 2026$0.07$0.27-74.4%
Q3 2025Nov 28, 2025$0.29$0.36-19.2%
Next earningsFri, Nov 27·consensus EPS $0.39

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.5B+4.5%41.6%15.4%$2.36—
Q4 FY25$3.0B-10.8%40.5%-1.2%$0.15$0
Q3 FY25$3.2B-9.4%45.4%14.2%$2.07$456.5M
Q2 FY25$3.3B+10.2%48.3%3.2%$0.34$611.1M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.2B$14.1B – $14.2B$9.11$8.56 – $9.596
FY27$15.9B$15.9B – $16.0B$10.09$9.47 – $10.626
FY28$17.4B$16.5B – $18.1B$10.83$10.18 – $11.402

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.40%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+9.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+11.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 22.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.545-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 10 other (9 awards · 1 exempt) in window

See when $CHA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 5 other (2 6-Ks · 1 13G · 1 F-3ASR · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Chagee Holdings Limited – Sponsored ADR (NASDAQ:CHA) Short Interest Updatedefenseworld.net·17d agoWall Street Analysts Think Chagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA) Could Surge 28.15%: Read This Before Placing a Betzacks.com·24d agoChagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA)'s Technical Outlook is Bright After Key Golden Crosszacks.com·28d agoChagee: Positive On Organizational Realignment (Rating Upgrade)seekingalpha.com·37d agoChagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·49d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CHA on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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