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CHCHA

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

$CHA·$2.1B·Beverages - Non-Alcoholic·Consumer Defensive
$11.46+1.4%YTD-5.3%1Y-57.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 0 posts2026-07-10: 0 posts2026-07-11: 0 posts2026-07-12: 3 posts2026-07-13: 4 posts2026-07-14: 0 posts2026-07-15: 0 posts7+100%
Price updated 10m ago·X counts updated 18h ago
CHCHA
$CHAChagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.46+1.40%7 posts+100%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CHA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Chinese premium modern-tea chain running same-store recovery and a 10% buyback into an August print.

Chagee Holdings is a Chinese premium tea beverage chain — the modern-teahouse category — with 7,531 locations across Greater China and overseas, a 50-million-member loyalty file, and category positioning aimed at higher-quality tea, matcha, and specialty formats than the lower-price mass-market chains.

  • Q1 revenue grew 4.5% year-on-year (recovering from Q4's 10.8% decline), and the last EPS print landed at $0.38 versus the $0.27 estimate — a 39% beat after Q4's 74% miss.
  • Consensus models $14.1B RMB of calendar-26 revenue at RMB 8.81 EPS across three analysts, rising to $15.8B and RMB 9.63 in 2027 — a coverage universe still forming after the IPO.
  • Shares are down 57.4% over twelve months and 5.3% year-to-date, sitting at the 13th percentile of the 52-week range and 9% below the 200-day — a base pattern rather than a fresh momentum move.
  • The 22 June summer-menu launch (matcha debut and citrus tea-freshers) and the recently disclosed gelato pilot in nine stores across five cities extend the category positioning; a 10% buyback programme has already contributed to the recent bid.

The 28 August Q2 print will refresh same-store-sales momentum against a comparable base and international expansion cadence; the setup is a Chinese-consumer story where the operating recovery is visible and the multiple has not yet re-rated with it.

Agrees with X sentimentX frames it as still-cheap on the Chinese-consumer thesis with GMV-per-store recovering for the first time in over a year, overseas GMV up 2.9%, and the 10% buyback as the near-term technical catalyst. That squares with the Q1 print and the buyback disclosure — the crowd is aligned on direction, with the disagreement about whether the multiple absorbs faster than the operating recovery lands.

What to watch: The 28 August Q2 print — same-store sales, GMV-per-store trajectory, buyback completion status, gelato-pilot metrics, and international-store expansion pace. Watch also for any China consumer-macro data that would drive discretionary spend.

On the calendar: Q2 earnings 28 August 2026

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-05

Chagee posted Q1 2026 net revenue of RMB 3.546B with 50M active members and 7,531 teahouses across Greater China and overseas. GMV-per-store has recovered for the first time in over a year, overseas GMV is growing 2.9% YoY, and Chinese GMV jumped 7.38% in the quarter. The stock is up 25% on a ~10% buyback program, with bulls arguing the Chinese consumer model is structurally sound and the name 'still screams cheap.' A new gelato pilot in 9 stores across 5 cities adds optionality.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CHA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Fast-casual teahouse chain under the CHAGEE brand expanding via franchises in China and internationally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Beverages - Non-Alcoholic sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CHA.

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — KO at 52-week highs and PEP's consistent pricing confirm inflation-resilient brand loyalty in core carbonated beverages.

What this means for $CHA

Partial — Fast-casual teahouse chain under the CHAGEE brand expanding via franchises in China and internationally; this segment overlaps with the inflation-resilient brand pricing sustaining KO/PEP premium but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Industry benchmark

4-name peer basket
+1.2%YTD
+13.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
15.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
44.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 29, 2026$0.38$0.27+39.4%
Q4 2025Mar 31, 2026$0.07$0.27-74.4%
Q3 2025Nov 28, 2025$0.36$0.360.0%
Q2 2025Aug 29, 2025$0.46$0.09+411.1%
Next earningsFri, Aug 28·consensus EPS $0.35

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.5B+4.5%41.6%15.4%$2.36—
Q4 FY25$3.0B-10.8%40.5%-1.2%$0.15$0
Q3 FY25$3.2B-9.4%45.4%14.2%$2.07$456.5M
Q2 FY25$3.3B+10.2%48.3%3.2%$0.34$611.1M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$14.1B$14.0B – $14.2B$8.81$8.49 – $9.436
FY27$15.8B$15.6B – $15.8B$9.64$9.28 – $10.326
FY28$17.0B$16.5B – $17.9B$10.42$10.04 – $11.162

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.13%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-8.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 22.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.695-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 1 other (1 exempt) in window

See when $CHA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
+ 9 other (3 13Gs · 2 6-Ks · 2 3s · 1 F-3ASR) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

CHAGEE Announces Summer Menu Featuring Matcha Debut and Citrus Teafreshersglobenewswire.com·24d agoChagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·49d agoChagee Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com·49d agoChagee to Announce First Quarter 2026 Financial Results on May 28, 2026globenewswire.com·55d agoChagee Files Its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20-Fglobenewswire.com·78d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CHA on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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