LI
Lumentum Holdings Inc.$LITERising onWhy it's trendingStrong bullish X conversationBacked by solid revenue growth
Communication EquipmentBullish sentiment
Overwhelmingly bullish. CEO Michael Hurlston's Deutsche Bank guide of '$40 of earnings power' in FY2028 versus sell-side ~$33 dominates, alongside a 'huge uptick in our order book,' capacity 'about 30% behind what our customers want,' and LTAs locking CW-laser supply through 2030. Bulls also cite the $87M InP wafer reservation with $AXTI through 2031 as crowding out competitors. Skeptics flag Form 4 insider selling and a 42x PE stretched versus cheaper $MU.
Proven numbers
Lumentum makes lasers and optical components for AI data centers, telecom networks and 3D-sensing consumer devices. The stock has 6.6x'd over the past year as the AI-optics thesis — that every hyperscaler cluster needs vastly more optical interconnect — converted into real earnings and locked-in demand through the end of the decade.
• Revenue growth is compounding: Q3 was $808M, up 90% YoY, with operating margin expanding to 22% from ~1% a year ago — this is a business converting AI capex into P&L, not a story stock still waiting to be believed.
• Management's FY28 EPS guide is the crux: CEO Michael Hurlston publicly guided to $40 of FY2028 earnings power against a $33 consensus, on OCS and continuous-wave laser demand locked through 2030 — a rare public over-consensus signal from a company running well.
• NVIDIA's $2B investment is more than validation: it's a strategic anchor that assures the ramp and gives buyers a reason to underwrite the $50-60B FY28 revenue path bulls model.
• The recent 6% pullback is a cool-off, not a break: an insider sold ~40k shares for $33M, but the buyer side saw new institutional positions add (Bluefin Capital), and the tape sits at 80% of the 52w range — no signal of distribution.
The setup keeps extending as long as OCS and CW-laser demand keeps translating into P&L and NVIDIA's next-gen platform continues to pull optics content — November 3 earnings is when the FY27 shipment ramp becomes visible. What invalidates: a delay in the CPO transition schedule, or a customer-concentration disclosure that reveals the ramp rests on one hyperscaler.