LL
Eli Lilly and Company$LLYRising onWhy it's trendingMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
Drug Manufacturers - GeneralBullish sentiment
X is bullish on Lilly's dominance — CEO Dave Ricks says Lilly products are 70% of the 700,000 US seniors who started GLP-1s since Medicare coverage began July 1, Olumiant just won FDA approval for pediatric alopecia, and Elliott-wave bulls call the pullback over with Wave (3) of V running. The sharp dissent is pointed: tirzepatide alone is projected to be ~70% of next year's $70B sales against a $1.2T valuation.
Proven numbers
Eli Lilly is the GLP-1 franchise leader — Mounjaro, Zepbound, and the oral candidate Foundayo. The business is compounding fast and the stock has been consolidating after a strong 12 months.
• The share capture is extraordinary: Foundayo took 30%+ of new oral GLP-1 patient starts and Lilly products are 70% of the 700,000 US Medicare GLP-1 patients since July 1 — that's a franchise moat that compounds annually.
• At 40x PE and 14.7x sales it is not cheap, but revenue grew 55% YoY at a 46% operating margin and ROIC above 30% — the valuation is backed by both scale and margin leverage into continued Zepbound/Mounjaro supply uplifts.
• The concentration risk is real: ~70% of 2027 sales ride on tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) and the $90M Nektar verdict just hit — a franchise-concentration shock is the one thing that reprices the whole stock.
Oct 29 Q3 is the gate — a clean beat plus any supply-constraint update implying 2027 upside carries the stock through $1,190. A supply slip, a label-restriction headline, or any serious oral-GLP-1 competitive data from Novo or Pfizer is what caps the move.
