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TickerTalks›$LLY
LLLLY

Eli Lilly and Company

Rising onWhy it's trendingMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
$LLY·$1.1T·Drug Manufacturers - General·Healthcare
$1257.03+0.4%YTD+8.4%1Y+53.4%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
LLLLY
$LLYEli Lilly and Company
$1,257.03+0.43%1.1k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $LLY on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,069X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $LLY's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data20 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

X is bullish on Lilly's dominance — CEO Dave Ricks says Lilly products are 70% of the 700,000 US seniors who started GLP-1s since Medicare coverage began July 1, Olumiant just won FDA approval for pediatric alopecia, and Elliott-wave bulls call the pullback over with Wave (3) of V running. The sharp dissent is pointed: tirzepatide alone is projected to be ~70% of next year's $70B sales against a $1.2T valuation.

Read what X is saying about $LLY

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $LLY — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Lilly's GLP-1 franchise is dominating oral and injectable — Oct 29 earnings is the next test and $1,190 is the technical trigger.

Eli Lilly is the GLP-1 franchise leader — Mounjaro, Zepbound, and the oral candidate Foundayo. The business is compounding fast and the stock has been consolidating after a strong 12 months.

  • The share capture is extraordinary: Foundayo took 30%+ of new oral GLP-1 patient starts and Lilly products are 70% of the 700,000 US Medicare GLP-1 patients since July 1 — that's a franchise moat that compounds annually.
  • At 40x PE and 14.7x sales it is not cheap, but revenue grew 55% YoY at a 46% operating margin and ROIC above 30% — the valuation is backed by both scale and margin leverage into continued Zepbound/Mounjaro supply uplifts.
  • The concentration risk is real: ~70% of 2027 sales ride on tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) and the $90M Nektar verdict just hit — a franchise-concentration shock is the one thing that reprices the whole stock.

Oct 29 Q3 is the gate — a clean beat plus any supply-constraint update implying 2027 upside carries the stock through $1,190. A supply slip, a label-restriction headline, or any serious oral-GLP-1 competitive data from Novo or Pfizer is what caps the move.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right drivers — Foundayo share capture, Medicare GLP-1 franchise dominance, Houston plant breaking ground — and the pushbacks named (tirzepatide concentration, the Nektar verdict) are the real risks to weigh, not noise.

What to watch: Oct 29 Q3 — tirzepatide revenue, oral-GLP-1 Foundayo ramp, and any 2027 supply guidance. A competitive label update from Novo or Pfizer is the invalidator; the break above $1,190 is the technical trigger bulls are watching.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $LLY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound for diabetes and obesity, plus Kisunla for Alzheimer's, with massive manufacturing expansion.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Drug Manufacturers - General sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LLY.

Drug Manufacturers - General · Healthcare

No material change from last week — GLP-1 duopoly (LLY/NVO) drives premium valuations while patent-cliff management defines the rest: ABBV migraine franchise win strengthens post-Humira portfolio.

What this means for $LLY

Neutral — Makes GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound for diabetes and obesity, plus Kisunla for Alzheimer's, with massive manufacturing expansion.

Top industry ETF

$IHEiShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF
+14.5%YTD
+36.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
40.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
32.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
45.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
101%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
83.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$8.38$6.40+30.9%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$8.55$6.97+22.7%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$7.54$6.91+9.1%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$7.02$5.69+23.4%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $5.60

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$19.8B+55.5%81.9%44.7%$8.27$3.0B
Q4 FY25$19.3B+42.6%85.1%45.5%$7.41$677.9M
Q3 FY25$17.6B+53.9%82.9%47.6%$6.22$8.6B
Q2 FY25$15.6B+37.6%84.3%45.8%$6.30$1.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$88.5B$87.0B – $91.3B$35.64$34.56 – $37.3920
FY27$102.4B$97.8B – $104.9B$47.21$43.98 – $50.5420
FY28$114.5B$102.2B – $128.8B$53.99$46.50 – $62.9725
FY29$123.8B$115.1B – $131.5B$61.19$55.63 – $66.1612
FY30$133.7B$124.4B – $142.1B$67.29$61.17 – $72.7512

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.92%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 848.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.455-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Patrik JonssonPresident6.5K sh$7.6MSellAug 10Donald A ZakrowskiSVP, Finance, & CAO2.0K sh$2.4MSellAug 7Anat HakimEVP, GC & Secretary5.0K sh$6.0MSellJun 10Ilya YuffaEVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab2.5K sh$2.9MSellMay 6Lilly Endowment IncFormer 10% Shareholder15.8K sh$15.8M
+ 29 other (24 awards · 3 gifts · 1 exempt · 1 inkind) in window

See when $LLY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsOct 83
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsSep 43/A
AI summary

Adrienne S. Brown, EVP and President of LLY Immunology at Eli Lilly & Company, filed an amended Form 3/A on September 4, 2026 to correct her initial beneficial ownership statement originally filed November 14, 2025. The amendment restates her direct ownership to 7,045.237 shares of LLY common stock, correcting an undercount from shares unintentionally omitted in the original filing and subsequent Forms 4. She also holds RSUs representing rights to receive approximately 3,669 additional LLY shares vesting in tranches through February 2028. This is an administrative correction with no economic change — no new shares were acquired or sold — and has no material impact on Lilly's capital structure.

SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Jul 30SC 13D
AI summary

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) filed a Schedule 13D for Scribe Therapeutics, Inc. (SCTX) disclosing beneficial ownership of 1,388,161 shares equal to approximately 7.3% of post-IPO outstanding shares (calculated based on 18,864,386 shares outstanding after IPO including overallotment). The stake was acquired using Lilly's working capital following SCTX's IPO on or around July 27, 2026. Lilly's 7.3% strategic position in SCTX — a CRISPR gene editing company co-founded by Jennifer Doudna — signals a strategic interest in Scribe's base-editing technology platform, potentially a precursor to a licensing or acquisition.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 233
AI summary

ELI LILLY & Co filed a Form 3 (initial statement of beneficial ownership) for Scribe Therapeutics, Inc. (SCTX), with 1,054,828 shares beneficially owned. Filer's relationship to issuer: Director, President, 10%+ Owner. This represents a significant beneficial ownership position. Form 3 must be filed within 10 days of becoming a new 10%+ owner or executive/director. This is an administrative ownership disclosure — no open-market transaction has occurred.

8-KShareholder voteMay 78-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LLY held its annual meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-07 (8-K Item 5.07). Stockholders elected 2 directors to the board. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 14 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Eli Lilly Says New Drug Drives Comprehensive Disease Control in Ulcerative Colitis Patientsbenzinga.com·2d agoLilly confirms date and conference call for third-quarter 2026 financial results announcementprnewswire.com·2d agoNew composite outcomes data show patients treated with Lilly's Omvoh (mirikizumab-mrkz) achieved comprehensive corticosteroid-free disease control in ulcerative colitis and corticosteroid-free deep remission in Crohn's disease at one yearprnewswire.com·2d agoPolen Focus Growth Portfolio Q3 2026 Portfolio Updateseekingalpha.com·2d agoEli Lilly and Company $LLY Stock Sold by Fairfield Financial Advisors LTDdefenseworld.net·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

GLP-1 & Weight Loss

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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