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LLLLY

Eli Lilly and Company

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 56% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (1.2K/wk), no spike
$LLY·$1.1T·Drug Manufacturers - General·Healthcare
$1157.83-1.4%YTD+3.7%1Y+57.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 51 posts2026-08-23: 77 posts1,181-1%
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
LLLLY
$LLYEli Lilly and Company
$1,157.83-1.43%1.2k posts-1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LLY, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

The GLP-1 juggernaut just got a new cardiovascular indication for Mounjaro and a real-world Zepbound data drop — the tape is catching up to the fundamentals.

Eli Lilly is the leading GLP-1 franchise in global pharma — Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for type-2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity are the biggest new pharmaceutical launch cycle since the statins. The stock had gone sideways for most of 2026 before a fresh breakout above the $1,232 base on the back of an FDA approval that widens the addressable population.

  • Growth is not just holding, it's genuinely enormous: Q1 revenue grew 55% year-over-year to $19.8B with 45% operating margins and an 82% gross margin — every one of the last four EPS prints beat consensus by 9-31%, and consensus already models 100%+ EPS growth to FY28.
  • The Aug 28 FDA approval matters more than the tape suggests: Mounjaro is now approved to reduce cardiovascular risk in high-risk type-2 diabetics — that expands prescribing rationale beyond glycemic control, moves Medicare and commercial coverage decisions, and preempts the pricing pressure that competitors were relying on.
  • Real-world evidence is doing the second job: fresh data shows Zepbound reducing downstream healthcare costs, which is what payer contracts need to justify formulary coverage — a soft catalyst, but one that shows up as durable prescription volume, not a one-time headline.
  • Insider tape is mildly negative: several officers sold $2-7M each in August (Jonsson $7.6M, Hakim $6.0M, Zakrowski $2.4M) — real dollars, but small against a $1.1T market cap; not a warning, just a reminder senior management sees fair value here.

The path if the run continues is Q3 confirming the Mounjaro-CV script uptake and any interim orforglipron oral-GLP-1 data being clean — the multiple accepts durable 40%+ revenue growth well into FY27 and the tape gets its next leg. What breaks the run is a competitive read from NKTR's Sept 8 trial or fresh orforglipron liver-enzyme concerns that force a label revision — that's the specific catalyst the crowd is watching for a good reason.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — the FDA nod for Mounjaro on cardiovascular risk, the Foundayo UK oral-GLP-1 launch, Zepbound's downstream-healthcare-cost evidence, and the technical breakout above the $1,232 base — captures the fundamental story cleanly; the specific headwinds the crowd also names (NKTR trial Sept 8, PepsiCo dropping GLP-1 coverage, orforglipron liver-enzyme chatter) are exactly what to key off, so this is honest bullish, not blind bullish.

What to watch: The Sept 8 NKTR trial read plus any orforglipron interim data ahead of the Oct 29 Q3 print — a clean NKTR outcome plus in-line orforglipron extends the breakout; a negative read on either forces a re-rating that catches the tape.

On the calendar: 2026-09-08 — NKTR trial read

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment128 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Genuinely split. Bulls celebrate FDA approval of Mounjaro to 'reduce cardiovascular risk' in high-risk T2D adults, a UK Foundayo launch, an Alzheimer's blood-test nod, and long-term $1,800 targets. Bears highlight PepsiCo dropping GLP-1 coverage, Foundayo prescriptions running well behind Novo's Oral Wegovy launch pace, an active $NKTR lawsuit heading to jury on Sept 8, and a chartist calling Wave V complete and staying 'fully short.' Retatrutide's biologic-reclassification suit sits as the swing catalyst.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LLY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound for diabetes and obesity, plus Kisunla for Alzheimer's, with massive manufacturing expansion.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Drug Manufacturers - General sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LLY.

Drug Manufacturers - General · Healthcare

GLP-1 obesity/diabetes franchise expansion is the sector's defining growth dynamic; LLY and NVO are capturing most of the incremental spend while the industry realigns R&D pipelines. Patent cliff management — biosimilar exposure and pipeline offset — is the critical risk for legacy pharma names.

What this means for $LLY

Direct beneficiary — GLP-1 or obesity pipeline directly participates in the platform competition bifurcating the industry; Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the.

Top industry ETF

$IHEiShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF
+19.1%YTD
+45.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
40.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
32.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
45.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
101%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
83.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$8.38$6.40+30.9%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$8.55$6.97+22.7%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$7.54$6.91+9.1%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$7.02$5.69+23.4%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $9.85

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$19.8B+55.5%81.9%44.7%$8.27$3.0B
Q4 FY25$19.3B+42.6%85.1%45.5%$7.41$677.9M
Q3 FY25$17.6B+53.9%82.9%47.6%$6.22$8.6B
Q2 FY25$15.6B+37.6%84.3%45.8%$6.30$1.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 22 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$85.3B$83.1B – $88.3B$35.04$32.65 – $37.3418
FY27$99.3B$94.0B – $101.8B$45.18$40.58 – $47.4818
FY28$111.3B$100.1B – $126.9B$52.15$46.24 – $59.0622
FY29$121.5B$114.1B – $130.4B$58.67$54.07 – $64.2715
FY30$131.5B$123.6B – $141.1B$64.76$59.68 – $70.9311

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.77%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 848.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.515-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Patrik JonssonPresident6.5K sh$7.6MSellAug 10Donald A ZakrowskiSVP, Finance, & CAO2.0K sh$2.4MSellAug 7Anat HakimEVP, GC & Secretary5.0K sh$6.0MSellJun 10Ilya YuffaEVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab2.5K sh$2.9MSellMay 6Lilly Endowment IncFormer 10% Shareholder15.8K sh$15.8M
+ 26 other (24 awards · 1 exempt · 1 inkind) in window

See when $LLY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Jul 30SC 13D
AI summary

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) filed a Schedule 13D for Scribe Therapeutics, Inc. (SCTX) disclosing beneficial ownership of 1,388,161 shares equal to approximately 7.3% of post-IPO outstanding shares (calculated based on 18,864,386 shares outstanding after IPO including overallotment). The stake was acquired using Lilly's working capital following SCTX's IPO on or around July 27, 2026. Lilly's 7.3% strategic position in SCTX — a CRISPR gene editing company co-founded by Jennifer Doudna — signals a strategic interest in Scribe's base-editing technology platform, potentially a precursor to a licensing or acquisition.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 233
AI summary

ELI LILLY & Co filed a Form 3 (initial statement of beneficial ownership) for Scribe Therapeutics, Inc. (SCTX), with 1,054,828 shares beneficially owned. Filer's relationship to issuer: Director, President, 10%+ Owner. This represents a significant beneficial ownership position. Form 3 must be filed within 10 days of becoming a new 10%+ owner or executive/director. This is an administrative ownership disclosure — no open-market transaction has occurred.

8-KShareholder voteMay 78-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LLY held its annual meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-07 (8-K Item 5.07). Stockholders elected 2 directors to the board. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 19 other (6 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Eli Lilly Is Acquiring Merdia Biosciences for Up to $2.88 Billion. Here's What That Means for Investors.fool.com·12h agoTrump reportedly plans to announce new drug pricing deals with nearly a dozen drugmakerscnbc.com·16h agoEli Lilly Stock Falls After Pharma Giant Unveils $2.9 Billion Acquisitiongurufocus.com·18h agoEli Lilly to buy Merida Biosciences for up to $2.88B, expanding immunology pipelineproactiveinvestors.com·18h agoLLY's Mounjaro Gets FDA Nod to Cut Cardiovascular Risk in Diabeteszacks.com·18h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

GLP-1 & Weight Loss

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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