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WAWALD

Waldencast plc

$WALD·$205M·Software - Application·Technology
$1.69-1.2%YTD-10.1%1Y-31.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 1 posts2026-07-10: 0 posts2026-07-11: 1 posts2026-07-12: 1 posts2026-07-13: 1 posts2026-07-14: 1 posts2026-07-15: 0 posts50%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
WAWALD
$WALDWaldencast plc
$1.69-1.17%5 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $WALD, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Beauty-and-wellness platform selling Obagi Medical to Bridgepoint — the residual business is what the tape is trying to value.

Waldencast operates a beauty-and-wellness platform anchored by Milk Makeup and (until recently) Obagi Medical — the announced 1 June sale of Obagi Medical to Bridgepoint is the pivot event that resets the business shape and the capital structure.

  • Q4 revenue grew 28.5% year-on-year and Q2 grew 21.0% — the growth pattern is real, but the sale of Obagi means these historical comparables are not clean read-throughs to the go-forward business.
  • The last two EPS surprises were large misses: negative $0.51 versus negative $0.17 estimate (200% miss) and negative $0.09 versus negative $0.075 (20% miss) — pre-divestiture noise.
  • Consensus models $292M of calendar-26 revenue at negative $0.61 EPS on a single analyst, rising to $306M and negative $0.58 in 2027 — coverage is thin and needs to reset post-transaction.
  • Shares are down 29% over twelve months and 9% year-to-date, sitting at the 40th percentile of the 52-week range and 3% above the 200-day — the tape is basing rather than trending.

The setup is a name where the corporate-shape catalyst has already fired (the Obagi sale announcement) and the substance-catalyst is still ahead — deal-close mechanics, capital-return commentary post-close, and the first clean Milk Makeup standalone print are all pending and would together reset the multiple.

What to watch: The Obagi Medical sale close mechanics and use-of-proceeds commentary, the next scheduled earnings release (not on file), Milk Makeup standalone revenue and margin trajectory, and any strategic-alternatives or 13D activity that would signal an acquirer for the remainder.

On the calendar: No dated event on file (Obagi sale close pending)

no sentiment

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $WALD

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Owns and markets dermatological skincare brands Obagi Medical and Milk Makeup targeting medical and mass consumer beauty markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $WALD.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

What this means for $WALD

Partial — Owns and markets dermatological skincare brands Obagi Medical and Milk Makeup targeting medical and mass consumer beauty markets; this segment overlaps with the AI agent bifurcation — contract expansion vs. user substitution but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-0.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-7.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-22.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-8.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-47.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
45.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q4 2025Mar 13, 2026$-0.51$-0.17-200.0%
Q4 2025Jan 13, 2026$-0.09$-0.07-20.0%
Q1 2025May 13, 2025$-0.17$-0.05-214.8%
Q3 2024Nov 20, 2024$-0.05$-0.050.0%

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY25$139.8M+28.5%43.9%-21.7%$-0.51$-2.2M
Q2 FY25$132.3M+21.0%47.2%-23.7%$-1.51$-14.1M
Q4 FY24$142.3M+58.4%68.6%-21.8%$-0.29$1.1M
Q2 FY24$131.6M+72.5%71.6%-20.9%$-0.09$-12.7M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 2 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$291.9M$290.0M – $293.0M-$0.61-$0.62 – -$0.612
FY27$306.4M$304.4M – $307.6M-$0.58-$0.58 – -$0.582

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.40%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+8.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+2.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 12.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.045-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 26SC 13D/A
AI summary

Waldencast — Beauty Ventures LLC and Waldencast Long-Term Capital both reported 0 shares of Waldencast PLC as of June 24, 2026, reflecting a full exit from their prior positions. The original SPAC sponsors and founding entities have completely exited their economic interest in Waldencast; this is the second and final 13D/A amendment reflecting the full wind-down of sponsor positions.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for WALD on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for WALD on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for WALD on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for WALD on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for WALD on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for WALD on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for WALD on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 10 other (6 6-Ks · 2 3s · 1 13G · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Obagi Medical Announces FDA Approval of Obagi® saypha® ChIQ™ Injectable Hyaluronic Acid Gelglobenewswire.com·32d agoWaldencast Announces Sale of Obagi Medical to Bridgepointglobenewswire.com·46d agoObagi Medical Shares New Data on Recent Innovations at Music City Symposium for Cosmetic Advances & Laser Education (SCALE) Meetingglobenewswire.com·63d agoObagi and Next Health Partner to Launch “The Skin Recharge Station” Pop-Up Experienceglobenewswire.com·64d agoObagi Medical Unveils New Mineral Sunscreen Designed to Protect Sensitive and Post-Procedure Skin*globenewswire.com·78d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

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