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ELEL

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

$EL·$30B·Household & Personal Products·Consumer Defensive
$82.61+0.4%YTD-22.1%1Y-4.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 95 posts2026-07-09: 247 posts2026-07-10: 577 posts2026-07-11: 76 posts2026-07-12: 139 posts2026-07-13: 281 posts2026-07-14: 163 posts1,580+19%
Price updated 13m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
ELEL
$ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
$82.61+0.36%1.6k posts+19%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $EL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Beaten-up beauty giant restructuring under a Profit Recovery Plan while Puig walks — a real turnaround inching along.

Estée Lauder is the global prestige-beauty parent — Estée Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer, Aveda, and dozens more premium brands sold through department stores, travel retail, and online. After a brutal China-and-travel-retail-driven drawdown, the company is executing a formal Profit Recovery and Growth Plan and just watched Puig walk away from combination talks.

  • Revenue grew a modest 5% YoY to $3.6B last quarter — the top line is stabilizing rather than accelerating, which is exactly what a turnaround looks like when the destination isn't reached yet.
  • The Profit Recovery and Growth Plan restructuring (Amendment No. 7 filed July 7) is now the operational spine — the $500-700M program is meant to structurally lower the cost base, and each amendment brings incremental clarity.
  • The May 22 termination of Puig combination talks removes a possible strategic acquirer catalyst — the tape absorbed that news without a fresh leg down, which is a quality-of-price-action signal.
  • Trades at 2x sales with 73% gross margin and a 4.3% FCF yield — the multiple is now cheap enough that mediocre execution starts to work, and the 52-week 29th percentile is exactly where value-hunt calls typically get made.
  • Zero insider transactions in the last 30 days and no fresh dilution filings — the Lauder family holds significant stock through Class B; the absence of family selling is worth noting.

August 19 Q4 earnings sets the tone: continued gross margin recovery plus FY27 guidance visible on the restructuring benefit is what turns the coiling into a real base; a soft China guide or an unexpected charge from the PRGP restructuring is where the tape breaks back toward $70. Real global franchise, still cheap, and the turnaround is progressing rather than stalling.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thin X take on the Fundsmith H1 selling list framing and the Meta glasses collaboration is directionally right — this is a value-catch-a-falling-knife story that's now working. The chart-based $63.91-$76.26 buy zone is a fair heuristic; the fundamental case is the Profit Recovery Plan actually delivering on its 500-700M target.

What to watch: Aug 19 Q4 earnings — need gross margin recovery held and FY27 guide reflecting PRGP benefits. A soft China guide or an unexpected restructuring charge is where the tape breaks back toward $70.

On the calendar: 2026-08-19 — Q4 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-09

Estée Lauder chatter is thin but constructive. EL is called out from the Fundsmith H1 selling list as an attractively-priced dominant global position benefiting from an aging population and the Meta glasses collaboration. Chartists flag a buy zone of $63.91–$76.26 and a base-middle daily setup. One trader stopped out but no bear thread present. Overall sentiment leans constructive.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $EL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes Estée Lauder, Clinique, MAC, and La Mer prestige beauty products distributed through department stores and travel retail worldwide.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Household & Personal Products sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $EL.

Household & Personal Products · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — inflation-weary consumers sustain spend on trusted daily-use brands (Colgate, Pepsi) while trading down in discretionary categories.

What this means for $EL

Neutral — Makes Estée Lauder, Clinique, MAC, and La Mer prestige beauty products distributed through department stores and travel retail worldwide; the inflation-weary consumer loyalty to trusted daily-use brands does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Industry benchmark

7-name peer basket
-4.4%YTD
-31.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-122.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-11.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
7.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
73.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 1, 2026$0.91$0.65+40.4%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.89$0.83+6.6%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.32$0.18+82.1%
Q2 2025Aug 20, 2025$0.09$0.09+4.3%
Next earningsWed, Aug 19·consensus EPS $0.31

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$3.7B+4.6%71.0%9.6%$0.25$310.0M
Q2 FY26$4.2B+5.8%76.5%13.9%$0.45$1.0B
Q1 FY26$3.5B+3.6%73.4%4.9%$0.13$-436.0M
Q4 FY25$3.4B-12.0%72.1%0.2%$-1.51$394.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 20 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$15.0B$14.9B – $15.0B$2.43$2.16 – $2.5314
FY27$15.6B$15.2B – $15.7B$3.19$3.06 – $3.4220
FY28$16.2B$16.2B – $16.3B$3.85$3.39 – $4.4418
FY29$16.8B$16.3B – $17.0B$4.31$4.15 – $4.399
FY30$17.3B$16.8B – $17.5B$4.90$4.72 – $4.9914

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.29%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-11.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 359.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.265-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 39 other (33 awards · 2 gifts · 2 inkinds · 2 exempts) in window

See when $EL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-K/ARestructuring / exit costs (amended)Jul 78-K/A — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs
AI summary

The Estée Lauder Companies filed Amendment No. 7 to its February 2024 8-K reporting on the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) restructuring, originally launched November 2023 with $500–700 million in expected charges. The program was expanded in February 2025 to cover reorganization, process simplification, selective outsourcing, and go-to-market evolution — all aimed at rebuilding operating margins through fiscal year 2027. The updated amendment provides final cost estimates and cash expenditure breakdowns by major cost type, details that were unavailable at the original filing. This is the latest update to a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar turnaround program that remains materially in progress.

8-K/ARestructuring / exit costs (amended)Jun 38-K/A — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs
AI summary

Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) filed an 8-K/A amendment to a previously filed Form 8-K current report. The amendment updates or corrects information previously disclosed under Item 2.05, Item 9.01. 8-K amendments are filed when material new information becomes available that was not known at the time of the original filing, or when an earlier disclosure contained errors requiring correction. Investors should compare this amendment with the original 8-K to identify what specifically changed or was updated.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 28SC 13D/A
AI summary

An individual reporting person filed an amendment to their Schedule 13D for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), disclosing that they currently have no plans or proposals of the type specified in Item 4(a)-(j) of Schedule 13D, while reserving the right to change plans in the future. The filing confirms the holder's passive stance at the time of filing. This is a routine 13D amendment to update the market on the filer's current lack of activist intentions.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 10SC 13D/A
AI summary

Aerin Lauder filed Amendment No. 8 to her Schedule 13D for Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) as of April 8, 2026, reporting beneficial ownership of 19,102,009 Class A shares representing 7.2% of the class, comprising 14,191,415 shares with sole voting/dispositive power and 4,910,594 shares with shared power. The amendment updates the ongoing Lauder family Schedule 13D originally filed January 2009. Investment intent details (Item 4) are not visible in the excerpt due to truncation. This is a routine beneficial ownership update for a Lauder family insider maintaining a 7.2% Class A stake; no change in control intent is apparent.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 103
AI summary

RSL Shares Trust u/a/d March 2, 2026, a 10%+ beneficial owner of Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), filed an initial Form 3 as of April 8, 2026. The trust is affiliated with the Lauder family (c/o The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.) and is classified as both Director and 10%+ Owner. Specific share counts are not visible in the truncated excerpt. This is a newly established Lauder family trust requiring initial Section 16 disclosure; it is administrative but relevant to tracking Lauder family group ownership dynamics of EL.

8-K/ARestructuring / exit costs (amended)Apr 18-K/A — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs
AI summary

Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) filed an amendment to its 8-K disclosing updates to the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) restructuring program, expanding the initiative originally announced November 2023 and last updated in February 2025. The program focuses on organizational rightsizing, process simplification, outsourcing, and go-to-market evolution; cumulative initiatives are to be approved by end of fiscal 2026 and substantially completed by end of fiscal 2027. The updated total charge estimate is discussed but the specific revised range is cut off in the excerpt. This is a material update as it extends and quantifies the ongoing multi-year restructuring at Estée Lauder.

+ 14 other (7 13Gs · 2 routine 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

3 Beauty Stocks Poised to Benefit From Evolving Consumer Trendszacks.com·7d agoStock Futures Slide as War With Iran Resumesschaeffersresearch.com·8d agoWhy Estee Lauder (EL) is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Termzacks.com·13d ago5 Beauty & Cosmetics Stocks to Buy for a Stable Portfolio in 2H 2026zacks.com·16d agoELF Beauty Taps Skincare and Global Expansion as Growth Shifts Higherzacks.com·17d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $EL on X in the last 7 days.

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