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VSVST

Vistra Corp.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX chatter picking upMoving on elevated volume
$VST·$54B·Independent Power Producers·Utilities
$152.56-4.8%YTD-6.9%1Y-17.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 68 posts2026-07-11: 29 posts2026-07-12: 89 posts2026-07-13: 94 posts2026-07-14: 102 posts2026-07-15: 111 posts2026-07-16: 109 posts612+20%
Price updated 15h ago·X counts updated 14h ago
VSVST
$VSTVistra Corp.
$152.56-4.79%612 posts+20%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $VST, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

AI-power play with a 2.6GW Meta PPA — trading below 200-day moving average into Q2 earnings.

Vistra Corp is the largest US independent power producer — a mix of nuclear, natural-gas, coal, and renewables serving both retail electricity customers and the wholesale power market. The 2024-25 story was hyperscaler PPAs; the 2026 tape has been the digestion phase.

Why the setup is more nuanced than headline-bullish:

  • Growth is choppy: Q1 revenue down 10% YoY on power-price mix, but Q3 was down 10% and Q4 was down 68% — the reported numbers are highly volatile due to power-price accounting.
  • Margins are tight in this cycle: operating margin 11% in Q1 with FCF yield 1.9% — this is a business where power prices matter more than operating leverage.
  • The 20-year Meta PPA up to 2.6GW is real and multi-year visible — this is the type of contract that supports the long-term thesis.
  • Insider action is a real cluster: directors John Sult and Arcilia Acosta together sold ~$3.6M on June 23 — meaningful board-level distribution.
  • Position confirms the digestion: 23% of 52-week range and 8% below the 200-day moving average, YTD -7%, t12m -17% — the profit-taking phase is real.
  • Today's -4.8% is more digestion in the AI-power basket (CEG got hit similarly).

The forward view: the August 7 Q2 print is the referee. A beat with commentary that the Meta PPA revenue trajectory is on track plus specific new hyperscaler PPA disclosure is what breaks the coil upward. What keeps it stuck: another quarter of noisy power-price accounting without additional hyperscaler contracts. What breaks it lower: a specific hyperscaler capex-shift away from behind-the-meter power sources.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the Meta 2.6GW PPA and the AI-power basket framing is directionally right. Our take agrees but flags the board-level insider selling as a specific caution the crowd isn't weighting.

What to watch: August 7 Q2 earnings and any new hyperscaler PPA disclosure; another cluster of board sales or a specific hyperscaler shift would break the coil the wrong way.

On the calendar: 2026-08-07 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Vistra chatter is bullish AI-power. VST has a 20-year PPA with Meta up to 2.6GW - a major long-term catalyst. Chart bulls flag VST forming a saucer bottom alongside CEG and NRG green. Community targets VST 'boosting into mid terms.' Community broadly long AI-power thesis. Adds at $151. Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $VST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates competitive natural gas and nuclear power generation plus retail electricity brands in Texas and deregulated US markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Independent Power Producers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VST.

Independent Power Producers · Utilities

No material change from last week — hyperscalers need 24/7 carbon-free electricity that nuclear plants uniquely provide, and VST/TLN are competing to capture co-location and long-term offtake..

What this means for $VST

Neutral — Operates competitive natural gas and nuclear power generation plus retail electricity brands in Texas and deregulated US markets; the hyperscaler 24/7 carbon-free nuclear PPA demand does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Industry benchmark

4-name peer basket
-21.3%YTD
-4.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
22.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
2.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
43.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
12.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$2.87$1.32+117.4%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.54$2.31-76.5%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.75$2.08-15.9%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$0.81$0.88-7.4%
Next earningsFri, Aug 7·consensus EPS $2.05

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$4.7B-10.0%20.3%11.3%$2.90$156.0M
Q4 FY25$2.3B-68.2%-55.6%-74.8%$0.55$-82.0M
Q3 FY25$5.0B-10.2%29.9%21.0%$1.78$1.0B
Q2 FY25$4.3B+15.2%22.0%12.1%$0.83$-118.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$23.3B$19.5B – $26.6B$9.25$8.10 – $10.4910
FY27$25.6B$21.3B – $29.2B$11.34$9.75 – $13.0510
FY28$26.4B$26.4B – $26.4B$13.01$10.56 – $16.9612
FY29$25.7B$20.6B – $30.2B$14.73$10.92 – $18.1011
FY30$26.4B$21.1B – $31.0B$16.68$12.37 – $20.496

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.23%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-8.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 314.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.415-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 18John R SultDirector6.5K sh$1.1MSellJun 18Arcilia AcostaDirector15.0K sh$2.5MSellJun 16Scott B HelmDirector25.0K sh$4.0MSellJun 15Paul M BarbasDirector244 sh$37KSellJun 12Paul M BarbasDirector244 sh$36KSellJun 2Margaret MontemayorSVP, Chief Accounting Officer4.6K sh$736KSellMay 27Margaret MontemayorSVP, Chief Accounting Officer5.0K sh$825KSellMar 9Moore Stephanie ZapataEVP and General Counsel10.0K sh$1.6M
+ 34 other (22 awards · 12 inkinds) in window

See when $VST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
8-KMaterial agreementJun 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Vistra Corp.'s (VST) indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Vistra Operations Company LLC entered into an amendment to its revolving credit agreement and created new direct financial obligations on June 24, 2026, with Citibank N.A. as Administrative and Collateral Agent. Specific changes to credit capacity, pricing, or covenants are not detailed in the excerpt. This is routine credit facility management for one of the largest independent power producers in the U.S. and is not expected to materially affect operations.

8-KShareholder voteMay 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

VST held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-04 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 288-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

VST entered into a material definitive agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-28). Size: approximately $4.0 billion. Rate: 4.550%. Due 2028. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

8-KMaterial agreementJan 278-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 routine 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

A Look at Vistra Corp (VST) After 4.8% Decline -- GF Value $168.48 vs Price $152.56gurufocus.com·19h agoCan Increased Capital Investments Boost VST Stock's Performance?zacks.com·1d agoMeta, Vistra, T. Rowe Price and a Health Care Stock on CNBC's ‘Final Trades'benzinga.com·1d agoVistra Corp. (VST) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Factszacks.com·2d agoQuality Stocks Aren't the Names You'd Expectbarrons.com·4d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Nuclear RenaissanceThe Power Grid

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Voices on X · top 3 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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