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VSVST

Vistra Corp.

$VST·$50B·Independent Power Producers·Utilities
$136.40-0.5%YTD-12.6%1Y-30.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 36 posts2026-08-22: 25 posts2026-08-23: 44 posts307-4%
Price updated 8m ago·X counts updated 8d ago
VSVST
$VSTVistra Corp.
$136.40-0.50%307 posts-4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $VST, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

AI-power name that Thiel weighted to 14% of his book — down 30% over 12 months, insider just bought at the lows.

Vistra is one of the largest independent power producers in the US, with a nuclear + gas + solar fleet plus a retail electricity business. It's the mechanical AI-power play the market fell in love with in 2024, punished in 2025, and is now quietly re-underwriting.

Why the setup matters:

  • Valuation has reset: shares down 30% over 12 months, at the 5th percentile of the 52-week range, ~8x 2027 EV/EBITDA on a business the sell-side models growing EBITDA ~30% — the compression the AI-power group needed to be asymmetric again.
  • The insider signal is fresh: CEO James Burke made a $270K open-market purchase — the same CEO who sold at the top, buying at the bottom, the cleanest insider signal in a cyclical.
  • Institutional roster is loud: Thiel weighted VST 14% (his second-largest position), David Tepper added, Nancy Pelosi still holds — three very different investors converging on the same trade doesn't happen often.
  • Contracted-earnings story is under-appreciated: Vistra cleared ~10,924 MW in the PJM 2028/2029 base residual auction at $25/MW-day — locked-in capacity payments the price doesn't credit.
  • Price action is coiled: 10% below the 50-day and 14% below the 200-day, volume normal, no distribution pattern — quiet accumulation.

The November 5 print is the resolution — reiterated 2027 EBITDA guide plus any additional data-center PPA breaks the coil upward; a soft merchant-power quarter forces the Thiel-Tepper crowd to defend it.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the crowd's core signals (Thiel 14% weight, Burke's $270K open-market buy after selling at the top, Tepper adding, ~8x 2027 EV/EBITDA on 30% EBITDA growth, LEAP-based leverage) all check out mechanically; this is a genuinely asymmetric setup, not narrative-only.

What to watch: November 5 earnings — reiterated 2027 EBITDA guide and any additional data-center PPA announcement; a soft merchant-power quarter with weak forward commentary keeps the stock stuck near the 52-week lows and forces bulls to defend their book.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment57 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Enthusiasm dominates the feed on AI-power positioning after CEO James Burke's roughly $270K open-market purchase, described as his first insider buy since March 2025, adds a signal on top of Peter Thiel putting about 14% of his book in the name and David Tepper adding again. Bulls cite roughly 8x 2027 EV/EBITDA, a 30% EBITDA growth path, and Mizuho initiating with an Outperform and a $169 target. Skeptics flag ERCOT weakness and prior insider selling.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $VST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates competitive natural gas and nuclear power generation plus retail electricity brands in Texas and deregulated US markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Independent Power Producers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VST.

Independent Power Producers · Utilities

AI data center power demand — hyperscalers signing long-term renewable PPAs — is the new structural demand driver layering on top of grid decarbonization mandates. Permitting timelines and grid interconnection queues remain the constraint on supply-side scaling.

What this means for $VST

Partial — consumer discretionary / retail performance tracks consumer spending trends; Vistra Corp.

Industry benchmark

6-name peer basket
-29.2%YTD
-31.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
22.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
2.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
43.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
12.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 7, 2026$0.76$1.61-52.8%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$2.87$1.32+117.4%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.54$2.31-76.5%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.75$2.08-15.9%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $2.88

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$4.7B-10.0%20.3%11.3%$2.90$156.0M
Q4 FY25$2.3B-68.2%-55.6%-74.8%$0.55$-82.0M
Q3 FY25$5.0B-10.2%29.9%21.0%$1.78$1.0B
Q2 FY25$4.3B+15.2%22.0%12.1%$0.83$-118.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$23.3B$19.5B – $26.6B$9.26$8.09 – $10.4810
FY27$25.6B$21.3B – $29.2B$11.34$9.75 – $13.059
FY28$26.4B$18.2B – $31.2B$13.02$10.66 – $16.9610
FY29$25.7B$19.9B – $30.5B$14.79$10.45 – $18.385
FY30$26.4B$20.4B – $31.3B$16.72$11.81 – $20.775

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.5%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-9.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-13.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 314.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.435-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyAug 24James A BurkeCEO2.0K sh$270KSellJun 18John R SultDirector6.5K sh$1.1MSellJun 18Arcilia AcostaDirector15.0K sh$2.5MSellJun 16Scott B HelmDirector25.0K sh$4.0MSellJun 15Paul M BarbasDirector244 sh$37KSellJun 12Paul M BarbasDirector244 sh$36KSellJun 2Margaret MontemayorSVP, Chief Accounting Officer4.6K sh$736KSellMay 27Margaret MontemayorSVP, Chief Accounting Officer5.0K sh$825KSellMar 9Moore Stephanie ZapataEVP and General Counsel10.0K sh$1.6M
+ 22 other (16 awards · 6 inkinds) in window

See when $VST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Vistra Corp.'s indirect subsidiaries TXU Energy Retail Company and TXU Energy Receivables Company entered an amendment to their Receivables Purchase Agreement (RPA) on July 10, 2026, increasing the aggregate commitment of committed purchasers from .1 billion to .25 billion and extending the facility term; Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank serves as administrator. The 50M increase in committed capacity strengthens Vistra's working capital for its retail electricity operations and represents a net accretive liquidity improvement.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Vistra Corp.'s (VST) indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Vistra Operations Company LLC entered into an amendment to its revolving credit agreement and created new direct financial obligations on June 24, 2026, with Citibank N.A. as Administrative and Collateral Agent. Specific changes to credit capacity, pricing, or covenants are not detailed in the excerpt. This is routine credit facility management for one of the largest independent power producers in the U.S. and is not expected to materially affect operations.

8-KShareholder voteMay 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

VST held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-04 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 288-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

VST entered into a material definitive agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-28). Size: approximately $4.0 billion. Rate: 4.550%. Due 2028. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 12 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

GE Vernova vs. Vistra: The AI Power Stock to Buy Now for 2026 and Beyondfool.com·1d agoElon Musk’s 15-Gigawatt Warning Points to a Very Different Set of AI Winners in 2027247wallst.com·1d agoPeter Thiel's Fund Reported Zero Stocks for 2 Straight Quarters. Its $419 Million Comeback Put 72% Into Energy and Power.fool.com·2d agoVST Stock Underperforms Industry in the Past 6 Months: Buy or Hold?zacks.com·4d agoVistra: The Market Is Pricing The Power Shortage, But Not The Contracted Earnings Upgradeseekingalpha.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Nuclear RenaissanceThe Power Grid

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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