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TATAC

TransAlta Corporation

$TAC·$4.2B·Independent Power Producers·Utilities
$14.22-2.1%YTD+11.2%1Y+27.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-04: 203 posts2026-07-05: 515 posts2026-07-06: 923 posts2026-07-07: 1,415 posts2026-07-08: 867 posts2026-07-09: 441 posts2026-07-10: 284 posts4,652
Price updated 13h ago·X counts updated 13h ago
TATAC
$TACTransAlta Corporation
$14.22-2.07%4.7k posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TAC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-07-11

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

A Canadian independent power producer with real assets and no equity narrative — a fundamentals-only carry.

TransAlta is a Canadian independent power producer running hydro, wind and solar, gas, and energy-transition assets across Canada, the U.S., and Australia. It is the boring version of the "AI needs more power" thesis — real generating capacity, real long-dated contracts, no headline story attached to the ticker right now.

  • The business is stabilizing off a soft base: revenue was down 25% year-over-year to $567M last quarter as legacy coal ran off, but Q1 EPS came in at $0.04 versus $0.01 consensus — the profitability trend is turning even while the top line is still resetting.
  • The valuation is doing the work: a 9% free-cash-flow yield and a 2.7x price-to-sales at a low 0.47 beta reads as a defensive income setup, not a growth story — this is a utility multiple on a utility business.
  • The leverage line is the honest risk: debt-to-equity of 3.2x is high even by utility standards, and the energy-transition capex requires financing regardless of where power prices head — a rate-shock in Canada would bite the equity before the operations.
  • There is no X signal to lean on: the sentiment column is empty and the news feed is contaminated by unrelated companies also using "TAC" (a cybersecurity firm, an ad-tech acronym) — treat the equity as a pure fundamentals bet, not a cashtag call.

The July 31 earnings is the check on the profitability turn — a second quarter of positive EPS with confirmed energy-transition capex funding validates the compounder-utility framing and lets the yield anchor the multiple. A miss or a leverage-driven guide-down reopens the "utility with a problem" case, and the tape has no crowd bid to fall back on.

What to watch: July 31 Q2 print — a second quarter of positive EPS with confirmed energy-transition capex funding validates the compounder-utility framing; a miss or a leverage-driven guide-down reopens the utility-with-a-problem case with no crowd bid to fall back on.

On the calendar: 2026-07-31 — Q2 2026 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

TransAlta Corporation specializes in the ownership, operation, and expansion of a diverse array of electricity generation facilities, with a geographical presence spanning Canada, the United States, and Australia. The company's activities are organized into four key divisions: Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, and Energy Transition. Within its portfolio, TransAlta operates plants powered by hydroelectric, wind, solar, natural gas, and even coal. Beyond generating power, TransAlta is active in the wholesale trading of electricity, energy commodities, and financial derivatives. Its operations also encompass related mining ventures and the management of natural gas pipelines. The firm caters to a broad spectrum of clients, including municipalities, various industrial and commercial enterprises, and other utility providers. Founded in 1909, TransAlta's corporate headquarters are situated in Calgary, Canada.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Independent Power Producers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TAC.

Independent Power Producers · Utilities

ETF up 2.2% today — structural driver intact: hyperscalers need 24/7 carbon-free electricity that nuclear plants uniquely provide, and VST/TLN are competing to capture co-location and long-term offtake..

Industry benchmark

4-name peer basket
-19.9%YTD
-9.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-26.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-0.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-2.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
8.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-11.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
32.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.04$0.01+300.0%
Q4 2025Feb 27, 2026$-0.04$0.05-180.0%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.01$0.06-116.7%
Q2 2025Aug 1, 2025$0.13$0.07+85.7%
Next earningsFri, Jul 31·consensus EPS $0.11

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$566.5M-25.3%43.0%4.2%$0.04$93.2M
Q4 FY25$598.5M-11.7%23.0%-15.0%$-0.21$146.9M
Q3 FY25$615.0M-3.6%28.3%1.8%$-0.21$196.0M
Q2 FY25$433.0M-25.6%77.1%-0.5%$-0.38$79.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 2 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.1B$2.0B – $2.2B$0.31$0.29 – $0.331
FY27$2.3B$2.2B – $2.4B$0.48$0.46 – $0.522
FY28$2.5B$2.4B – $2.7B$0.70$0.66 – $0.751
FY29$2.2B$2.1B – $2.3B$0.85$0.81 – $0.921
FY30$2.2B$2.1B – $2.3B$1.08$1.02 – $1.161

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.50%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+3.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 249.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.475-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Cybersecurity Firm TAC InfoSec Limited Schedules Board Meeting To Consider Q1 FY27 Financial Results on July 10businesswire.com·3d agoTransAlta Corp (TAC) Shares Surge 3.3% -- What GF Score of 51 Tells Investorsgurufocus.com·4d agoTransAlta to Host Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Callglobenewswire.com·11d agoHitachi expands its work with OpenAI to accelerate AI-driven modernization and cybersecuritygurufocus.com·24d agoNexxen Raises Full-Year 2026 Contribution ex-TAC and Programmatic Revenue Guidance for the Second Time This Year Ahead of Today's Investor Dayglobenewswire.com·25d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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