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TLTLN

Talen Energy Corporation

$TLN·$16B·Independent Power Producers·Utilities
$295.76-0.1%YTD-10.8%1Y-23.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 8 posts2026-08-22: 3 posts60+5%
Price updated 1h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
TLTLN
$TLNTalen Energy Corporation
$295.76-0.12%60 posts+5%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TLN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-25

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Nuclear + AI-data-center narrative around the Susquehanna-Amazon deal, but three straight massive EPS misses (-162%, -73%, -390%) tell a different story.

Talen Energy is an independent power producer with a nuclear-heavy generation portfolio (Susquehanna) plus fossil, solar, coal, and developing battery storage. The narrative is huge: an Amazon Web Services data-center power deal at the Susquehanna nuclear plant makes Talen a poster child for the AI-power thesis. The tape hasn't been kind — down 14% over twelve months, 11% year-to-date, sitting at just 3% of the 52-week range.

  • The last four EPS prints have been catastrophic misses: Q2 26 -$2.00 vs +$3.21 (-162%), Q1 26 $1.33 vs $5.01 (-73%), Q4 25 -$7.60 vs +$2.62 (-390%), Q3 25 +$4.25 vs $3.18 (+34%) — one big beat and three brutal misses, driven by mark-to-market on hedge contracts and derivative accounting
  • Revenue growth is real: Q1 2026 $2.81B (+345% year-over-year — this reflects deal-related contract recognition), Q4 25 $670M (+37%), Q3 25 $770M (+39%), Q2 25 $454M (+10%)
  • On July 14 Talen disclosed PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction capacity results — the details in the exhibit determine the multi-year contracted revenue picture, which is the entire deal value
  • Analyst 2026 revenue estimate is $4.43B on $22.01 EPS growing to $6.05B / $50.50 EPS by 2030 — the stock at $306 is 13.9x forward, cheap for the AI-power thesis if execution improves
  • Debt-to-equity of 6.3 makes this leveraged on operational execution — one accounting-driven miss quarter can move the stock big
  • Beta of 1.67 in a utility-adjacent name — this trades like a merchant-power play, not a regulated utility

Insider signal is null, no filings this period; the tape story is 'AWS narrative supports it, misses on the tape don't'.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish on the Amazon-Susquehanna deal, consolidation setup, and put-selling and OTC call activity. Fair on the strategic thesis; the three big EPS misses are what X is under-weighting — the equity is priced for execution that hasn't materialized quarter-by-quarter yet.

What to watch: The Q3 print on November 4 needs to show operational EPS turn positive after three misses — otherwise the AI-power thesis is a whiteboard story rather than a P&L story, and the multiple compresses.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Talen Energy is being framed as an AI-datacenter power beneficiary alongside OKLO, with posters noting tech-giant long-term nuclear power deals as the driving catalyst. Chart traders describe TLN approaching the $300 mark and one flags a swing-trade setup off the bottom of a year-long range. A new-investment post shares an info slide. A separate new-low print showing TLN down $4.89 to $301.40 is the lone counter-current note.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TLN

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Independent power producer selling electricity from nuclear and gas plants, pivoting to supply co-located data center campuses with carbon-free power.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Independent Power Producers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TLN.

Independent Power Producers · Utilities

AI data center power demand — hyperscalers signing long-term renewable PPAs — is the new structural demand driver layering on top of grid decarbonization mandates. Permitting timelines and grid interconnection queues remain the constraint on supply-side scaling.

What this means for $TLN

Partial — cloud infrastructure exposure benefits indirectly from hyperscaler capex; core business is Talen Energy Corporation functions as an independent power producer and infrastr.

Industry benchmark

6-name peer basket
-29.5%YTD
-32.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-792.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-3.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
33.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-1.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
59.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
6.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$-2.00$3.21-162.3%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$1.33$5.01-73.5%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$-7.60$2.62-390.1%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$4.25$3.18+33.6%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $8.73

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$2.8B+345.2%61.2%54.1%$1.38$392.0M
Q4 FY25$670.0M+37.3%92.1%-43.9%$-7.95$240.0M
Q3 FY25$770.0M+38.7%45.8%34.2%$4.53$404.0M
Q2 FY25$454.0M+9.9%20.7%14.5%$1.58$-120.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.4B$4.3B – $4.7B$22.01$14.14 – $27.285
FY27$5.1B$4.3B – $6.0B$30.92$24.45 – $40.595
FY28$5.4B$5.0B – $5.6B$37.24$28.62 – $45.864
FY29$5.8B$5.2B – $6.3B$43.57$37.30 – $48.943
FY30$6.0B$5.4B – $6.6B$50.50$43.23 – $56.733

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.1%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-17.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-17.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 36.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.675-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 15Gizman I AbbasDirector2.6K sh$988K
+ 25 other (12 exempts · 11 inkinds · 1 other · 1 return) in window

See when $TLN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 148-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Talen Energy Corporation disclosed on July 14, 2026, that it received PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction capacity results, with details provided in a press release (Exhibit 99.1) filed under Reg FD. No specific megawatts cleared or clearing prices are included in the body of the 8-K. Routine capacity auction disclosure; the specific results in the exhibit will be material for assessing Talen's contracted power revenue for 2028/2029.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 18S-3ASR
AI summary

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) filed an automatically-effective S-3ASR shelf registration statement on June 18, 2026, registering the resale of up to 2,399,998 shares of common stock by existing selling stockholders. Because this is a secondary (resale) offering, Talen itself receives no proceeds; the shares already exist and no new dilution is created by this filing. The S-3ASR auto-effectiveness reflects Talen’s large accelerated filer status. This is an administrative registration enabling existing shareholders to sell their holdings in an orderly manner over time — routine and not operationally significant.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 158-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) filed an 8-K on June 15, 2026 covering a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01), completion of an acquisition or disposition (Item 2.01), creation of a direct financial obligation (Item 2.03), unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), and a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01). Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific transaction counterparty, acquisition target, or financial obligation details are disclosed.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 283
AI summary

Daniel Jude Kelly filed an initial Form 3 for Talen Energy Corp (TLN) as of May 20, 2026, reporting his initial beneficial ownership upon becoming a Section 16 insider (officer or director) at the power generation company. This is a routine compliance filing.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) with exhibits. Talen Energy is a Houston, Texas-based power generation company with a significant nuclear fleet listed on Nasdaq. Given Talen's nuclear assets and its data-center power purchase agreement pipeline, this material definitive agreement may relate to a new long-term power supply contract or data center offtake deal, which would be transformative and accretive.

8-KShareholder voteMay 78-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

TLN held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-07 (8-K Item 5.07). Stockholders elected 6 directors to the board. A non-binding say-on-pay vote on executive compensation was conducted. Independent auditor ratification was approved. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 13 other (4 earnings 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Algert Global LLC Makes New $6.67 Million Investment in Talen Energy Corporation $TLNdefenseworld.net·5d agoOKLO vs. TLN: Which Nuclear Energy Stock Looks Better Now?zacks.com·8d ago3 Nuclear Energy Stocks for the AI Power Era247wallst.com·8d agoBank of America Sees Bargains in These 16 Knocked-Down AI Stocksinvestopedia.com·17d agoBank of America Corp DE Sells 16,400 Shares of Talen Energy Corporation $TLNdefenseworld.net·19d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Nuclear RenaissanceThe Power Grid

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Voices on X · top 6 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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