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VSVST

Vistra Corp.

$VST·$47B·Independent Power Producers·Utilities
$152.02-1.4%YTD-15.8%1Y-27.7%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
VSVST
$VSTVistra Corp.
$152.02-1.39%3.6k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $VST on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

3,577X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $VST's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data12 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The Vistra crowd is strongly bullish on the AI-power thesis — Peter Thiel has reportedly ~$59M, Bridgewater ~$119M, Pelosi $500K-1M in VST options, and Trump $252K in buys, all stacking into a stock where bulls say "sub-$140 is the best opportunity in the market." Wall Street models a 35.7% EPS CAGR against a historical 30x P/E implying a +42% return. There is no bear voice in the sample.

Read what X is saying about $VST

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $VST — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

An independent power producer sitting directly in the AI-power demand curve — down 30% while the AI-power narrative is louder than ever.

Vistra is one of the handful of US independent power producers positioned directly in the path of AI-data-center demand — Texas and PJM capacity, with nuclear in the mix. The stock has fallen roughly 30% from its highs even as the AI-power narrative keeps getting louder.

  • The business is lumpy and hedged: Q1 2026 revenue -10% YoY and EPS swings from +117% beats to -53% misses — the operating economics look volatile because they are, dominated by hedge timing and power-market pricing.
  • The capital-structure story keeps advancing: a $1.5B hybrid debt offering in September at 7% rates — expensive but non-dilutive, with the capital stack being built for the AI-contract cadence the Street expects.
  • Insider selling is the sour note: CFO Hudson sold $6.7M and Moldovan $3M on Sep 8 near recent highs — not catastrophic but $9.7M of C-suite selling is something bulls at 52-week lows have to explain.

A clear AI-compute PPA announcement or a Nov 6 Q3 beat with electric guidance firming re-rates toward the X crowd's $200+ targets; another soft quarter and continued insider selling and the breakdown continues.

Agrees with X sentimentX cites Thiel's $59M, Bridgewater's $119M and the 35.7% EPS CAGR model — real positioning and consensus growth support the bull case. The crowd under-weights the $9.7M C-suite insider cluster on Sep 8, which is a counter-signal to "sub-$140 is the opportunity of the market".

What to watch: Nov 6 Q3 earnings — any signed AI/data-center PPA, 2027 EPS guide tracking consensus $10, and whether insider selling resumes. A visible AI PPA re-rates it fast; another earnings volatility and no PPA keeps the breakdown going.

On the calendar: 2026-11-06 — Q3 2026 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $VST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates competitive natural gas and nuclear power generation plus retail electricity brands in Texas and deregulated US markets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Independent Power Producers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VST.

Independent Power Producers · Utilities

No material change from last week — AI datacenter power demand is creating a scarcity premium for 24/7 clean baseload capacity, uniquely advantaging nuclear IPPs.

What this means for $VST

Partial — Operates competitive natural gas and nuclear power generation plus retail electricity brands in Texas and deregulated US markets.

Industry benchmark

6-name peer basket
-22.6%YTD
-36.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
22.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
2.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
43.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
12.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
3.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 7, 2026$0.77$1.61-52.2%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$2.87$1.32+117.4%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.54$2.31-76.5%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.75$2.08-15.9%
Next earningsFri, Nov 6·consensus EPS $2.71

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$4.7B-10.0%20.3%11.3%$2.90$156.0M
Q4 FY25$2.3B-68.2%-55.6%-74.8%$0.55$-82.0M
Q3 FY25$5.0B-10.2%29.9%21.0%$1.78$1.0B
Q2 FY25$4.3B+15.2%22.0%12.1%$0.83$-118.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$22.5B$18.8B – $26.2B$8.61$7.53 – $9.966
FY27$24.6B$20.1B – $28.3B$10.22$8.53 – $12.308
FY28$25.7B$18.8B – $32.0B$12.05$11.28 – $13.698
FY29$25.3B$20.6B – $30.7B$14.26$10.86 – $18.216
FY30$25.9B$21.2B – $31.4B$16.13$12.28 – $20.596

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.23%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-1.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 313.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.395-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 7Kristopher E. MoldovanCFO20.0K sh$3.3MSellOct 6Scott A HudsonPresident22.2K sh$3.6MSellSep 8Kristopher E. MoldovanCFO20.0K sh$3.0MSellSep 8Scott A HudsonPresident44.4K sh$6.7MBuySep 1James A BurkeCEO4.5K sh$604KBuyAug 31James A BurkeCEO2.2K sh$299KBuyAug 24James A BurkeCEO2.0K sh$270KSellJun 18John R SultDirector6.5K sh$1.1MSellJun 18Arcilia AcostaDirector15.0K sh$2.5MSellJun 16Scott B HelmDirector25.0K sh$4.0M
1–10 of 14
+ 10 other (10 awards) in window

See when $VST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementOct 58-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
8-KMaterial agreementSep 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Vistra Corp's subsidiary Vistra Operations Company LLC completed a $1.5 billion hybrid debt offering on September 24, 2026: $850 million of 7.000% Series A Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057 and $650 million of 7.250% Series B Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057, both guaranteed by Vistra Corp and issued under an Indenture with Wilmington Trust as trustee. These are long-dated (31-year) junior subordinated instruments, typically given partial equity credit by rating agencies. This is a large capital-structure financing supporting Vistra's continued power generation expansion.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Sep 10424B5
S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationSep 9S-3ASR
AI summary

Vistra Corp. filed an automatic shelf registration statement (S-3ASR), effective immediately upon filing given Vistra's WKSI status. The registration establishes a framework for future securities offerings by Vistra, including potential debt, equity, or hybrid instruments. No specific offering terms or amounts were disclosed — this is a preparatory capital markets filing for one of the largest independent power producers in the US.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Vistra Corp.'s indirect subsidiaries TXU Energy Retail Company and TXU Energy Receivables Company entered an amendment to their Receivables Purchase Agreement (RPA) on July 10, 2026, increasing the aggregate commitment of committed purchasers from .1 billion to .25 billion and extending the facility term; Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank serves as administrator. The 50M increase in committed capacity strengthens Vistra's working capital for its retail electricity operations and represents a net accretive liquidity improvement.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Vistra Corp.'s (VST) indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Vistra Operations Company LLC entered into an amendment to its revolving credit agreement and created new direct financial obligations on June 24, 2026, with Citibank N.A. as Administrative and Collateral Agent. Specific changes to credit capacity, pricing, or covenants are not detailed in the excerpt. This is routine credit facility management for one of the largest independent power producers in the U.S. and is not expected to materially affect operations.

8-KShareholder voteMay 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

VST held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-04 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 288-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

VST entered into a material definitive agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-28). Size: approximately $4.0 billion. Rate: 4.550%. Due 2028. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 8 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 routine 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Vistra Corp. (VST) Surpasses Market Returns: Some Facts Worth Knowingzacks.com·1d agoVistra Announces Redemption of All Outstanding Series A Preferred Stockprnewswire.com·1d agoWhy Constellation Energy Has A Near-Term Edge Over Vistraseekingalpha.com·2d agoAI Needs More Power Than the Grid Can Give, and These 7 Stocks Sell the Fixfool.com·2d agoVistra Stock Surged Following Its $4.2 Billion Federal Loan. With the Stock Down 23% Over the Past Year, Is It Time to Buy?fool.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Nuclear RenaissanceThe Power Grid

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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