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UGUGP

Ultrapar Participações S.A.

$UGP·$7.6B·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·Energy
$7.10-5.1%YTD+100.0%1Y+78.8%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 2h ago
UGUGP
$UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.
$7.10-5.14%11 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $UGP on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

11X posts · last 7 days
Sep 10Sep 27

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $UGP — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-27

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Ultrapar has doubled YTD on the Brazilian fuel-distribution cycle — a real Latin-American commodity distributor at 10x earnings.

Ultrapar Participações is a Brazilian-listed diversified fuel-distribution and chemicals conglomerate. The equity has ripped 100% YTD on the Brazilian macro-cycle turn.

  • Growth is real: revenue grew 25% YoY last quarter to $42.5B BRL and Q2 hit $8.07B USD with EPS beating by 4% — a scaled Brazilian conglomerate running growth-cycle economics with 8% gross margin, 5% operating margin, and 21% ROE.
  • The valuation is inexpensive: 10x earnings and 0.23x sales at an 18% FCF yield — priced like a distressed Brazilian conglomerate despite the operating story executing.
  • The tape is at range highs: shares at the 93rd percentile of range, +37% vs the 200-day, and +11% vs the 50-day on volume 22% below trend — a name being accumulated into the highs on modest volume, the classic signature of a Brazilian-macro cycle turning.

The Nov 11 print is the arbiter: any raise on 2027 fuel-distribution volume plus commentary on the Selic-cut trajectory extends the accelerating tape; a soft fuel-margin number or a hint of Brazilian macro-cycle policy pressure is where a name up 100% YTD gives back. This is the Brazilian-macro cycle trade at a distressed multiple that has finally re-rated.

What to watch: Nov 11 earnings — 2027 fuel-distribution volume guide, Selic-cut impact commentary, chemicals segment trajectory, gross-margin trajectory, and any capital-return updates. A volume raise plus Selic tailwind extends the tape; a Brazilian macro-cycle policy pressure is the pause trigger.

On the calendar: 2026-11-11 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $UGP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Brazilian conglomerate operating Ipiranga fuel distribution (2,000+ stations), Ultragaz LPG, and Ultracargo chemical storage.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $UGP.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy

No material change from last week — Crude above $100/bbl tightening refined product markets and sustaining refinery crack spreads above mid-cycle.

What this means for $UGP

Neutral — Brazilian conglomerate operating Ipiranga fuel distribution (2,000+ stations), Ultragaz LPG, and Ultracargo chemical storage.

Top industry ETF

$CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF
+69.3%YTD
+71.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
12.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
18.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
20.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
8.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 12, 2026$0.28$0.27+3.7%
Q4 2025Mar 4, 2026$0.06$0.07-14.3%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$0.12$0.09+33.3%
Q2 2025Aug 13, 2025$0.17$0.06+183.3%
Next earningsWed, Nov 11·consensus EPS $0.25

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$42.5B+24.7%11.1%7.7%$1.50$3.4B
Q1 FY26$36.8B+10.3%8.6%5.0%$0.79$170.9M
Q4 FY25$38.0B+7.2%6.8%3.0%$0.30$1.1B
Q3 FY25$37.0B+4.7%6.7%3.9%$0.65$239.8M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$159.2B$151.7B – $166.8B$4.04$3.79 – $4.295
FY27$156.5B$149.2B – $164.1B$3.08$2.45 – $3.717
FY28$161.5B$153.9B – $169.2B$3.46$3.25 – $3.683
FY29$157.1B$149.7B – $164.6B$3.80$3.57 – $4.033
FY30$165.0B$157.3B – $172.9B$3.91$3.67 – $4.155

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.93%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+37.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.265-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 22Hachem Andre SalemeCFO39.2K sh$301KSellSep 10Rabelo Pedro GuedesFinancial Officer Ipiranga30.0K sh$227KSellSep 10Linden Leonardo RemiaoCEO60.0K sh$454KSellSep 1Decio De AmaralCEO8.0K sh$55KSellAug 18Hachem Andre SalemeCFO585 sh$4K
+ 38 other (25 awards · 13 returns) in window

See when $UGP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 63
3New insider — initial holdingsApr 13
+ 13 other (10 6-Ks · 1 20-F/A · 1 6-K/A · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Ultrapar Participacoes (NYSE:UGP) Hits New 52-Week High – Should You Buy?defenseworld.net·4d agoOur Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - September 2026seekingalpha.com·9d agoUltrapar Participacoes S.A. $UGP Shares Acquired by Engineers Gate Manager LPdefenseworld.net·10d ago5 Value Stocks With Incredibly Low EV-to-EBITDA Ratios to Snap Upzacks.com·11d agoUltrapar: The Stock Remains Cheap Even After Soaring Since The Iran Warseekingalpha.com·11d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $UGP on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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