TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$TSM
TSTSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Rising onWhy it's trendingX chatter picking upRecent insider buying clusterBacked by solid revenue growth
$TSM·$2.3T·Semiconductors·Technology
$398.37-2.8%YTD+27.7%1Y+62.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 39 posts2026-07-11: 288 posts2026-07-12: 604 posts2026-07-13: 2,222 posts2026-07-14: 2,404 posts2026-07-15: 1,662 posts2026-07-16: 2,588 posts11,794+37%
Price updated 38m ago·X counts updated 16m ago
TSTSM
$TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$398.37-2.77%12k posts+37%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

The one indispensable AI-supply-chain name is still the primary way to own the hyperscaler capex cycle.

Taiwan Semiconductor is the sole leading-edge foundry for the AI world — Meta's Iris chip, Nvidia's GPUs, and essentially every advanced hyperscaler chip runs through TSMC's fabs. The stock is riding the earnings-week bullish setup into elevated volume.

Why the tape is voting:

  • Fundamentals are best-in-class: 62% gross margin, 53% operating margin, and a 26% return on invested capital — meaning TSMC captures margin from every hyperscaler AI dollar without needing to take design risk of its own.
  • The sell-side is chasing hard: Citi lifted its Taiwan-line price target by 32%, UBS matched — sell-side chasing after a 72% twelve-month move is the pattern that extends rather than exhausts.
  • The demand backdrop is durable: TSMC is the sole manufacturer of Meta's Iris chip for the MTIA project, and hyperscaler capex is funneling into a narrower list of chip designers — Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD — all of whom use TSMC.
  • Volume confirms the setup: today's tape ran at 1.7x the 30-day average with the stock 17% above its 200-day, and multiple insider open-market buys arrived in the last two weeks — small dollars, but directionally the right signal.

What keeps the leg extending is Q3 guidance confirming the Meta ramp and continued hyperscaler capex. What breaks it is a specific Nvidia or Broadcom order pull-in — a supply-chain digestion signal that no other TSMC customer could offset in the current mix.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish on the Citi and UBS target raises, the Meta Iris chip role, and hyperscaler capex durability — the fundamentals genuinely back all three. The one honest limitation is that TSMC's earnings has already been today; the next test is Q3 guide follow-through.

What to watch: Q3 guidance follow-through — hyperscaler capex commentary, Meta Iris chip ramp timing, and any margin trajectory into the leading-edge mix. A hyperscaler pull-in from any major customer is the specific check.

On the calendar: 2026-10-15 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment32 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

TSMC chatter is bullish into July 16 earnings. Citi hiked its Taiwan-line PT to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 (+32%) and UBS lifted to NT$3,400 - the sell side is decisively bullish. Bulls emphasize TSMC's role as sole manufacturer of Meta's Iris chip (Broadcom-designed for the MTIA project starting September), plus continuing hyperscaler capex funneling FCF into top semiconductor names. Growth watchlists have TSM going from $264 to $348. A running joke is that Buffett bought TSM then sold 90 days later while the stock is now up ~500%. Community also flags TSM leading the SMH trade into earnings. Small caution about tactical entry at $410-430, but that is a dip-buy plan not a bear thesis.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSM.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $TSM

Partial — Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry; this segment overlaps with the AI capex and HBM/compute demand cycle but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+50.8%YTD
+90.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
31.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
25.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
53.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
36.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
61.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$4.23$3.82+10.7%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$3.49$3.31+5.4%
Q4 2025Jan 15, 2026$3.09$2.90+6.6%
Q3 2025Oct 16, 2025$2.92$2.63+11.0%
Next earningsThu, Oct 15·consensus EPS $4.23

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.13T+35.1%66.2%58.0%$111.55$377.1B
Q4 FY25$1.06T+21.6%62.3%53.9%$98.40$388.2B
Q3 FY25$989.9B+30.3%59.5%50.6%$89.05$139.4B
Q2 FY25$933.8B+38.6%58.6%49.6%$72.60$197.5B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 21 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.26T$5.03T – $5.45T$503.79$429.29 – $532.3421
FY27$6.80T$6.49T – $7.35T$649.07$556.21 – $789.8721
FY28$8.48T$7.26T – $9.36T$809.42$658.09 – $919.3218
FY29$7.91T$6.77T – $8.74T$665.52$541.09 – $755.8810

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.73%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 5.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.255-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Cluster buy31 insiders bought shares in the last 30 days.

Recent transactions

SellJul 14Chih-ho ChenController50 sh$4KBuyJul 13Chih-ho ChenController50 sh$4KBuyJul 7Syun-ming JangVP47 sh$4KBuyJul 7Ying-lang WangSVP53 sh$4KBuyJul 7Chin-sheng LuVP37 sh$3KBuyJul 7Yung-haw LiawVP48 sh$4KBuyJul 7Yuh-jier MiiCOO68 sh$5KBuyJul 7Juiping ChuangVP47 sh$4KBuyJul 7Yao-ching KuVP46 sh$4KBuyJul 7Shien-yang WuSVP54 sh$4K
1–10 of 117
+ 5 other (3 gifts · 2 expirelongs) in window

See when $TSM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJun 233/A
AI summary

Amendment to Form 3 filed by A new officer/director (Other (specify below) VP 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Common Shares (2330.TW) 30,851 D Common Shares (2330.TW) 72,946 (1) I By Spouse Common Shares (2330.TW) 131,000 I By Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd. Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: 1. This amended Form 3 is being filed to correct the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) reported as owned by the reporting person's spouse in Table I of the original Form 3 filed on June 1, 2026, which inadvertently included 450 Common Shares (2330.TW) not owned by the reporting person's spouse. This amended Form 3 corrects the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) owned by the reporting person's spouse from 73,396 to 72,946, and is deemed to update such information reported in the Form 4 filed on June 9, 2026. Remarks: /s/ Jen-Chau Huang, as attorney-in-fact 06/23/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at TSM on 2026-06-23. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 50,967 direct shares plus 3,000 shares indirectly through spouse; total beneficial ownership approximately 53,967 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 30,851 direct shares, 73,396 held by spouse, and 131,000 held by Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd.; total approximately 235,247 shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 44,359 direct shares and 63,000 held by spouse; total approximately 107,359 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 313/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-31, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 303/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-30, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Beneficial ownership covers 5,259 shares. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 69 other (37 3s · 30 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

TSMC Just Announced Fantastic News for Nvidia Shareholdersfool.com·1d agoSopko: TSM Earnings "Promising" for AI Trade, Question Lies in Energy & Supplyyoutube.com·1d agoTaiwan Semiconductor Commits To Investing Another $100 Billion In The United Statesfool.com·1d agoEveryone's Buying NVIDIA, but 2 Smaller AI Stocks Could Soar Higherzacks.com·1d agoApple's New iPhone Is Going to Cost Significantly More Than Last Year. That's Great News for These 2 Potential Millionaire-Maker Stocks.fool.com·1d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor OnshoringAdvanced Packaging & AI Interconnect

More in Semiconductors

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$NVDA$MU$AMD$AVGO$INTC$AAOI$ARM$SKHY
Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport