Broadcom Inc.

Broadcom is the custom-silicon shop hyperscalers hire when they don't want to buy Nvidia — its chips are inside Meta's MTIA, Google's TPU, and now, through 2031, Apple's device roadmap. AI chip revenue is compounding fast, and after a spring correction the stock has just reclaimed the $400 level.

• The Apple contract through 2031, called the largest US manufacturing deal Apple has ever signed, locks in roughly five years of custom-ASIC revenue visibility from the single most important consumer OEM — the type of moat that shows up in the multiple.
• AI-chip revenue was already up 106% YoY before the Apple print — the growth is real business, not narrative, and it's why the 62x TTM P/E doesn't look completely unhinged.
• Trades at 62x earnings and 24x sales — priced as a growth semi, so any miss on the AI-capex ramp compresses the multiple hard; there's no margin of safety here.
• Longtime director Henry Samueli sold $250M on June 24 alongside recurring officer sales from Mark Brazeal (~$21M across three trades) — Samueli has trimmed this way for years, but $250M in a single week is a level even seasoned holders notice.
• BofA is now calling long semis 'the most crowded trade ever' — not a top signal on its own, but positioning is stretched enough that a modest disappointment reverberates further than usual.

September 3 earnings decides the setup: an AI-chip revenue beat with a Q4 guide that shows Apple contribution ramping keeps the trend alive. A guide that misses the AI ramp is where the crowded-trade risk finally shows up in the tape.