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ARARM

Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

$ARM·$302B·Semiconductors·Technology
$241.91+1.2%YTD+148.7%1Y+82.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 71 posts2026-08-22: 32 posts2026-08-23: 49 posts2026-08-24: 147 posts604+6%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
ARARM
$ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$241.91+1.20%604 posts+6%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ARM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Arm is the CPU-tollbooth for AI compute — real royalty ramp, but at 400x trailing earnings the tape is now the constraint.

Arm Holdings licenses the CPU architecture inside almost every phone, and increasingly the server and edge accelerators AI datacenters need. The setup is a genuine growth compounder trading on a valuation only NVIDIA-adjacent could support.

  • The royalty ramp is real: Q1 FY26 revenue grew 20% YoY to $1.29B at a 93% gross margin and 30% operating margin, with EPS beating at $0.45 vs $0.40 — the sell side now models revenue climbing to ~$8.2B in FY28 and ~$10.9B in FY29 as Arm-accelerated server spend (already at ~$53B in Q1) keeps compounding.
  • The strategic footprint keeps expanding: IBM opened its mainframes to Arm with a joint 5.6GHz dual-architecture processor, the "AGI CPU" was unveiled at the Arm Everywhere event, and NVIDIA earnings sympathy has kept the AI-halo bid intact — the whole tape trades Arm as a CPU tollbooth on every AI socket.
  • The valuation is where the argument lives: at 403x trailing earnings and 74x sales, the multiple already prices in most of the FY29 ramp; today's -6.3% drop is the tape digesting a stretched multiple rather than a business issue, and chartists are eyeing $250-260 as the next short entry.

The setup is a hot-momentum real-royalty compounder cooling on multiple concerns rather than a fundamentals crack — the November 4 print is the referee, and the market needs continued 20%+ revenue growth plus explicit server-royalty color. A clean beat with lifted FY guide extends the run toward the $300 crowd target; a growth deceleration or a margin miss at these multiples turns cooling into a real give-back.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the NVDA-earnings sympathy, the AGI CPU at Arm Everywhere, the IBM/Arm 5.6GHz dual-arch mainframe, and $53B of Arm-accelerated server spend Q1 is factually consistent with the reports and the filings. The bears' 93x-earnings caution and $173-97 downside zone is fair given how much of the FY29 ramp the current multiple already prices.

What to watch: The November 4 Q2 FY27 earnings — need continued 20%+ revenue growth, explicit server-royalty color, and lifted FY guide. A growth deceleration or a margin miss turns cooling into a real give-back toward the $173-97 chartist zone; a clean beat with lifted guide extends the run toward the $300 crowd target.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q2 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment53 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

The tone is torn between long-term believers and short-term chart bears. Bulls flag Neoverse cores capturing an accelerating share of AI servers, the new AGI CPU launched at Arm Everywhere, and an IBM dual-architecture mainframe at 5.6GHz opening 22 million Arm developers to enterprise Linux. Bears cite AMD's Venice 256-core socket pitch, Samsung's Exynos 2700 and Xiaomi's Xring O3 eroding Snapdragon volume, a Qualcomm bench trial in September, and Arm sitting below the 21 and 50-day moving averages testing $230.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ARM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Licenses CPU and GPU chip architectures used in virtually all smartphones, collecting royalties on every ARM-based chip shipped.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ARM.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex keeps Blackwell allocation tight and HBM3e pricing firm; NVDA's data-center backlog and AVGO's networking wins confirm the cycle is not peaking. LLM context-window expansion — the structural demand pull — extends through at least 2H26.

What this means for $ARM

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; Arm Holdings plc is a leading technology firm that conceptualizes, engineers, and licenses core processing unit (CPU) de.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+94.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
403.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
18.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
74.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
94.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.45$0.40+12.5%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.60$0.58+3.4%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$0.43$0.41+4.9%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$0.39$0.33+18.6%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $0.48

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$1.5B+20.1%93.1%29.5%$0.29$186.0M
Q3 FY26$1.2B+26.3%94.2%15.4%$0.21$186.0M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+34.5%97.4%14.4%$0.22$429.0M
Q1 FY26$1.1B+12.1%94.3%10.2%$0.12$171.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 21 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$6.0B$5.7B – $6.3B$2.23$2.04 – $2.3419
FY28$8.2B$7.6B – $9.2B$3.03$2.83 – $3.5021
FY29$10.9B$10.2B – $11.7B$4.02$3.69 – $4.4210
FY30$15.9B$14.9B – $17.1B$5.96$5.46 – $6.5510
FY31$28.0B$26.2B – $30.2B$10.26$9.40 – $11.2712

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.44%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-12.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+28.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.915-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 2Bartels Laura KathleenChief Accounting Officer11.3K sh$4.4MSellMay 28William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer4.2K sh$1.4MSellMay 22William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer2.3K sh$703KSellMay 21William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer4.7K sh$1.3MSellMay 21Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer7.8K sh$2.3MSellMay 21Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer4.0K sh$1.1MSellMay 20Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer3.1K sh$782KSellMay 20Jason ChildCFO31.9K sh$7.2MSellMay 20William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer5.1K sh$1.3MSellMay 19Spencer CollinsChief Legal Officer40.9K sh$8.8M
1–10 of 21
+ 17 other (6 exempts · 5 inkinds · 5 awards · 1 gift) in window

See when $ARM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 18 other (7 6-Ks · 7 3s · 1 SD · 1 IRANNOTICE) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

ARM's Expanding AI Growth Opportunity Goes Beyond Market Hypezacks.com·3d agoArm Rises 2.8% as $272 Target Prices the CPU Tollboothgurufocus.com·6d agoARM's 93X Earnings Multiple Overshadows Its Growth Potentialzacks.com·6d agoIBM Just Opened Its Mainframes to Arm—Is the Market Missing the Shift?marketbeat.com·7d agoAdvanced Micro Devices vs. Arm Holdings: Comparing Revenue Trends Between These Artificial Intelligence Companiesfool.com·10d ago

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