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ARARM

Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

$ARM·$284B·Semiconductors·Technology
$235.79-3.7%YTD+117.0%1Y+43.4%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ARARM
$ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$235.79-3.68%2.0k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ARM on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

2,042X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ARM's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data18 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

X is bullish on the breakout — $ARM ran 135% as the pole, consolidated three weeks, then flagged out for another 90% in five weeks, with $380+ being named as the year-end target and $500 the longer stretch. The one measured note is a conservative advisor telling the room "don't chase" ARM at these levels, and the CPU-comp valuation thread showing ARM's forward multiples still rich against AMD and INTC.

Read what X is saying about $ARM

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ARM — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

A 94%-gross-margin royalty business running 90% in five weeks on the data center chip story.

Arm Holdings designs the chip architecture nearly every smartphone CPU uses — and increasingly, the data center and AI accelerators too. The stock just ripped 90% in five weeks on the pole-and-flag data center expansion narrative.

  • The underlying revenue is actually growing fast: +20% YoY last quarter to $1.49B at 94% gross margin — this is a royalty business, so incremental revenue drops close to 100% to the operating line.
  • Valuation is the mountain: 403x trailing earnings and 74x sales, pricing in the analyst arc that has revenue going from $5B today to $27B by FY31 — essentially a 5x in five years off the current ~55% YoY design-win pace.
  • SoftBank's $25B margin loan is collateralized by ARM shares, and the collateral already clipped 7% when Oracle's Project Jupiter force majeure landed; CFO Child sold $3.1M at $300 in September, the clearest internal "trimming here" signal.

The accelerating setup holds while data-center royalty revenue — the hot slice of the story — grows faster than mobile. A soft Nov 4 earnings print, or a SoftBank-collateral event that forces more share supply, is what unwinds a 90%-in-5-weeks move in a hurry.

Agrees with X sentimentX chartists pointing at $380-$500 next are right that the breakout is clean, but the SoftBank collateral risk one post flagged is not a sideshow — a forced sale into a 400x P/E stock is a tail risk the bulls are collectively shrugging off.

What to watch: Nov 4 earnings — data center and automotive royalty growth. A miss on data center licensing revenue would invalidate the entire pole-and-flag chartist narrative keeping bulls committed through the valuation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q2 FY27 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ARM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Licenses CPU and GPU chip architectures used in virtually all smartphones, collecting royalties on every ARM-based chip shipped.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ARM.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI capex remains the structural driver with Blackwell supply still packaging-constrained. Jensen Huang publicly named memory bandwidth as AI's next bottleneck, reinforcing HBM3e pricing power. AVGO custom ASIC demand broadens AI beneficiaries beyond NVDA's GPU allocation.

What this means for $ARM

Direct beneficiary — Licenses CPU and GPU chip architectures used in virtually all smartphones, collecting royalties on every ARM-based chip shipped.; core silicon directly in the AI training/inference supply chain pulling hyperscaler capex.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+64.5%YTD
+63.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
403.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
18.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
74.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
94.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.45$0.40+12.5%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.60$0.58+3.4%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$0.43$0.41+4.9%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$0.39$0.33+18.6%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $0.48

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$1.5B+20.1%93.1%29.5%$0.29$186.0M
Q3 FY26$1.2B+26.3%94.2%15.4%$0.21$186.0M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+34.5%97.4%14.4%$0.22$429.0M
Q1 FY26$1.1B+12.1%94.3%10.2%$0.12$171.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$6.1B$5.7B – $6.2B$2.23$2.09 – $2.3122
FY28$8.3B$7.8B – $8.9B$3.06$2.76 – $3.6824
FY29$10.9B$10.2B – $11.7B$4.13$3.77 – $4.5112
FY30$16.4B$15.3B – $17.6B$6.48$5.92 – $7.0812
FY31$27.3B$25.5B – $29.2B$10.11$9.23 – $11.0517

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.41%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-9.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.795-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 21Jason ChildCFO10.4K sh$3.1MSellAug 27Jason ChildCFO10.4K sh$2.7MSellJun 2Bartels Laura KathleenChief Accounting Officer11.3K sh$4.4MSellMay 28William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer4.2K sh$1.4MSellMay 22William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer2.3K sh$703KSellMay 21Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer7.8K sh$2.3MSellMay 21William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer4.7K sh$1.3MSellMay 21Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer4.0K sh$1.1MSellMay 20Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer3.1K sh$782KSellMay 20Jason ChildCFO31.9K sh$7.2M
1–10 of 19
+ 20 other (8 awards · 6 exempts · 5 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $ARM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 11 other (7 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 IRANNOTICE · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Arm vs. Credo Technology Group: Which Semiconductor Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·22h agoCan ARM's 13% Contract Value Growth Sustain Momentum in Q2?zacks.com·1d agoAdvanced Micro Devices vs. Arm: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·1d agoWhy Arm Holdings Stock Was Falling Todayfool.com·2d agoWhat's Going on With Arm Stock on Tuesday?benzinga.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · top 7 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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