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ARARM

Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 20% YoY at strong marginsCatalyst pendingConsistent chatter on X (14.8K/wk), no spike
$ARM·$344B·Semiconductors·Technology
$268.80+2.6%YTD+132.2%1Y+70.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 734 posts2026-07-10: 880 posts2026-07-11: 1,153 posts2026-07-12: 2,538 posts2026-07-13: 4,702 posts2026-07-14: 3,424 posts2026-07-15: 1,313 posts14,784+27%
Price updated 1m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
ARARM
$ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$268.80+2.59%15k posts+27%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ARM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

The chip royalty model is scaling as promised — but at 403x trailing earnings, the July 29 print has to deliver.

Arm licenses the CPU architecture inside virtually every smartphone and a rapidly growing share of AI servers. The stock more than doubled this year on that AI story, then took a hit after HSBC flagged foundry bottlenecks and valuation — and now earnings on July 29 decide which side wins.

  • The royalty model is scaling as advertised: Q4 FY26 revenue grew 20% YoY at a 93% gross margin, so every incremental license or royalty dollar drops almost fully through to gross profit — this is why the stock earns a technology-royalty multiple instead of a semiconductor multiple, but only if the volume story keeps compounding.
  • Valuation is at an extreme even for that model: 403x trailing earnings and 74x sales, with analyst consensus needing FY31 EPS around $10 for the price to look reasonable — buyers are paying today for revenue five years out, which puts real weight on every quarterly print.
  • The setup into July 29 is loaded both ways: chartists point to a mini island-bottom candle and $54M in call flow anchored on the $300 strike, while HSBC's downgrade cites foundry-capacity bottlenecks that could delay the Physical-AI story bulls are underwriting.

A clean July 29 print with an FY27 top-line guide showing 25%+ growth — plus specific commentary on AI-server or automotive royalty acceleration — extends the setup toward the $364-$382 zone the technicians are watching. A guide-down or foundry-supply language echoing HSBC resolves the falling wedge the other direction.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish, citing the mini island-bottom setup, the $52M block on the $300 call, and the NVIDIA Jetson Orin royalty stream. Mechanics partly back it: Q4 revenue +20% YoY at 93% gross margin, with royalties dropping straight to gross profit. But the minority P/E concern is legitimate at 403x trailing earnings, and HSBC's foundry-bottleneck downgrade is a real risk — the July 29 print is where the bull thesis proves itself or breaks.

What to watch: The July 29 Q1 FY27 earnings. Good = FY27 revenue guide comfortably north of the $6B consensus with named AI/automotive royalty ramps; bad = capacity-limited language confirming the HSBC concern. Level to watch: the $300 pin is where the call flow concentrates.

On the calendar: 2026-07-29 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment28 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Arm Holdings chatter is bullish into July-end earnings. Bulls point to $54.8M in massive call flow (anchored by a $52M block on the $300 strike), a mini-island-bottom candle setup, and a falling-wedge breakout with $364/$372/$382 upside targets. Traders note the last time ARM tapped this zone it ran 50% in six trading days. The robotics ARM Cortex CPU story and NVIDIA Jetson Orin royalty stream are amplified. A minor bearish thread flags ARM's P/E as too high and expresses interest in short LEAPs. Overall community is decidedly long-side.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ARM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Licenses CPU and GPU chip architectures used in virtually all smartphones, collecting royalties on every ARM-based chip shipped.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ARM.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $ARM

Partial — Licenses CPU and GPU chip architectures used in virtually all smartphones, collecting royalties on every ARM-based chip shipped; this segment overlaps with the AI capex and HBM/compute demand cycle but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+54.2%YTD
+96.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
403.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
18.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
74.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
94.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.60$0.58+3.4%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$0.43$0.41+4.9%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$0.39$0.33+18.6%
Q2 2025Jul 30, 2025$0.35$0.35+0.3%
Next earningsWed, Jul 29·consensus EPS $0.40

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$1.5B+20.1%93.1%29.5%$0.29$186.0M
Q3 FY26$1.2B+26.3%94.2%15.4%$0.21$186.0M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+34.5%97.4%14.4%$0.22$429.0M
Q1 FY26$1.1B+12.1%94.3%10.2%$0.12$171.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 21 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$6.0B$5.7B – $6.2B$2.17$1.93 – $2.3221
FY28$8.1B$7.5B – $9.1B$3.02$2.82 – $3.4821
FY29$10.6B$10.0B – $11.4B$3.95$3.64 – $4.3210
FY30$15.5B$14.6B – $16.6B$5.54$5.11 – $6.0610
FY31$27.2B$25.6B – $29.2B$10.27$9.48 – $11.2412

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.46%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-16.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+42.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.775-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 2Bartels Laura KathleenChief Accounting Officer11.3K sh$4.4MSellMay 28William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer4.2K sh$1.4MSellMay 22William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer2.3K sh$703KSellMay 21Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer7.8K sh$2.3MSellMay 21William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer4.7K sh$1.3MSellMay 21Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer4.0K sh$1.1MSellMay 20William AbbeyChief Commercial Officer5.1K sh$1.3MSellMay 20Jason ChildCFO31.9K sh$7.2MSellMay 20Eaton Charlotte ClaireChief People Officer3.1K sh$782KSellMay 19Spencer CollinsChief Legal Officer40.9K sh$8.8M
1–10 of 21
+ 14 other (5 exempts · 5 awards · 4 inkinds) in window

See when $ARM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ARM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 17 other (7 3s · 6 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 IRANNOTICE) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

ARM's Expanding Royalty Opportunity Is Powering Its AI Growth Storyzacks.com·1d agoArm's Recent Pullback Is a Gift for Long-Term Investors at Current Levels247wallst.com·1d agoLive Nasdaq Composite: Chip Stocks Buckle Under Capex Pressure as Markets Hunt Leadership247wallst.com·1d agoArm Stock Tumbles After HSBC Sounds Valuation Alarmbenzinga.com·3d agoArm stock falls 6% as HSBC cites foundry bottlenecks, cuts rating to Holdinvezz.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · top 4 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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